Pistons forced to consider future without Billups

Chauncey Billups was averaging more than 18 points and 8 assists for the second consecutive season before he was sidelined. John W. McDonough/SI

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One of the great ironies in sports is that for all of the money and time spent trying to predict outcomes, a team's future is plain for all to see -- in its style of play, its chemistry, its history in similar situations.

Take the Pistons, for instance. Despite all of the predictions that Detroit's run among the Eastern elite would end after Ben Wallace signed with Chicago last summer, the return of four-fifths of a starting lineup that won 64 regular-season games last season gave a strong hint the fall wouldn't be too hard. An 18-9 start to 2006-07 was a soft landing indeed.

But while Detroit's first 27 games proved life without Big Ben could still be prosperous, the Pistons' last five -- three of which have been losses -- have illustrated how hardscrabble life could be without Chauncey Billups.

Though the former Finals MVP should return from a strained calf in about a week, life without Billups in a very permanent sense is a possibility the Pistons may face this summer, when the 31-year-old point guard can opt out of his contract and become a free agent. Billups has not addressed the possibility since the preseason, but with a deal that will pay him $6.8 million next season (compared to, for instance, the $16.4 million Baron Davis will make), the odds are good Detroit will be forced to open its wallet wide or see Billups walk.

"I would think Chauncey deserves a big contract," says an opposing advance scout. "He's gotten better and better over the years. He's expanded his game; he knows how to get them in their offense and he [can make his own offense]. He's gotten confident and he's comfortable in his role as a take-charge guy, and they accept him in that role and they need him in that role."

Indeed, in his fifth year of running the Pistons' offense, Billups has developed into Detroit's coach on the floor, not only distributing the ball, but also formulating the team's approach from night to night.

"Our pace depends on the game," Billups said in a phone interview recently. "If we're on the road at Dallas, we have to slow things down. We don't want to get in a run-and-gun with them. [If] we've got Phoenix in town, you've got to slow it down. At other times we have to speed it up a little bit. That's pretty much a decision that I'll make during the game and Flip [Saunders] and I will talk about."

Players with Billups' skills and proven track record won't be easy to come by next summer, which is likely to see Rashard Lewis, Gerald Wallace and Darko Milicic on the market. And for all of the highlights the summer's other potential free-agent catch, Vince Carter, might produce if he opts out of his deal, whom would you trust with the game on the line?

Deserving as he may be of a lucrative deal, Billups may find the realm of potential suitors limited. Teams projected to have significant space under the salary cap include Atlanta, Charlotte, Memphis and Seattle, none of which would appear to appeal to a player who has reached the conference finals or beyond each of his last four seasons. Orlando and Milwaukee are also expected to be flush with salary-cap room, but the Magic already have the promising duo of Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo at point while the Bucks may be becoming increasingly inclined to spend their dollars on a 24-year-old Mo Williams.

But as the Mavericks learned when Steve Nash walked out the door, free-agent shoppers are hard to predict. And as the Mavs also learned, a few million saved in the present may cost a team a two-time MVP in the future.

"One analysis [espoused by former SI.com NBA analyst John Hollinger] holds that point guards need to be two of three things to age well," says a consultant associated with an NBA front office. "They need to be fairly big, they need to shoot well and they need to pass well. Chauncey, arguably, is all three of those things. Outside of Steve Nash, there's probably not anybody as efficient as [Billups] is in terms of not turning the ball over, getting assists, scoring."

No team knows that better than Detroit, where losing Billups would likely spark a decline all of us can predict.