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Hope on the horizon

These five also-rans will soon become playoff teams

Posted: Thursday March 22, 2007 1:43PM; Updated: Friday March 23, 2007 10:31AM
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Chris Paul offers the Hornets a nice centerpiece to build on.
Chris Paul offers the Hornets a nice centerpiece to build on.
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For some teams, next year never seems to come. Caught in a web of bad decisions, bad luck and good teams above them in the standings, perennial also-rans can find the climb to respectability incredibly steep. But by digging beyond the won-loss ledger, a handful of teams are closer to becoming legit playoff contenders than their records suggest. With some shrewd deal-making and smart decisions, these five teams should soon step up.

1. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

Reasons for optimism: An All-Star point guard (Chris Paul), a shot-blocking, monster-rebounding 7-foot center just starting to scratch his offensive talent (Tyson Chandler) and a well-rounded, hard-working power forward (David West). Most promising, the Hornets boast a roster with an average age of 25.9, among the 10 youngest teams in the league.

Missing pieces: A healthy Peja Stojakovic sure would help. As that hasn't been the case since 2003-04, the Hornets should look to find an athletic, rangy scorer in the vein of Rip Hamilton, someone who can run with Paul and in coach Byron Scott's Princeton offense. A younger Jerry Stackhouse would work. In other words, what the Hornets need probably isn't available in free agency this year. But that doesn't mean going after the next best thing (Matt Carroll?). Despite a host of injuries, the Hornets still have positioned themselves within shouting distance of the playoffs. A team this young and with this much potential needs a little time to stew before mortgaging its salary cap future for that last piece if it can't be found in the draft.

Projected breakthrough: 2008-09. A year minus a M*A*S*H unit's worth of injuries, the Hornets reach the playoffs next season before taking a major step toward the conference's upper tier.

2. MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Reasons for optimism: One of the league's most versatile and explosive scorers, Michael Redd is capable of hitting from outside and willing to slash toward the hoop. Mo Williams is averaging more than 17 points and six assists and five rebounds from the point guard spot. All that and he's only 24. Andrew Bogut has the size (7-0, 245) and has shown some promise of the skills to man the Bucks' pivot for a decade. Finally, Milwaukee will be among the few teams this summer to have significant cap space.

Missing pieces: Some modicum of effort on defense. The fact that the Bucks rank among the NBA's 10 best offenses is offset by its rank among the league's five worst defenses. That isn't a function of talent as much as effort, something new coach Larry Krystkowiak should address. Perhaps he can squeeze a little more dominance out of Bogut, who should average more than 0.7 blocks a game. None of this will make much difference if Milwaukee doesn't spend some of its cap space to keep Williams, who will be a free agent after the season. Free-agent-to-be Chauncey Billups may offer more big game experience, but Williams offers similar potential and six fewer years.

Projected breakthrough: 2008-09. It will take at least a season for the Bucks to install some form of defense that doesn't involve a matador's cape. Assuming Krystkowiak can get it done, the Bucks could be hitting on all cylinders a season later.

3. ATLANTA HAWKS

Reasons for optimism: A do-everything guard in Joe Johnson, a freakishly talented but unpolished Josh Smith at forward, a serviceable center in Zaza Pachulia and a potential rebounding rock in rookie power forward Shelden Williams. Almost as important, the Hawks have a fair amount of salary-cap space available, should any free agents be willing to take their money.

Missing pieces: Hate to bring this up for the umpteenth time, but a Chris Paul or Deron Williams sure would help tie this young collection of talents together. Ideally a draft pick will offer a long-term solution; in the short term, there seem to be enough overpriced underused point guards (e.g. Earl Watson, Damon Stoudamire) that would fit better than Speedy Claxton. Of course, that assumes the team's ownership situation, held hostage by former part-owner Steve Belkin's suit to buy the team from his former partners, is cleared up. Minus that, an air of uncertainty will hang over every transaction this team makes.

Projected breakthrough: 2008-09. Provided the team trades one of its small forwards for a point, the Hawks could make a late playoff run next season before becoming a certified contender a year later.

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