Monday Morning QB (cont.)
Posted: Monday June 18, 2007 9:02AM; Updated: Monday June 18, 2007 12:24PM
As for how I arrived at my picks, other than with a divining rod, I used a few measuring sticks. I value wins from my quarterback, and that helped Manning and Brady, the leaders in victories over the last two years. I value postseason success, and their seven combined wins over the past two years is significant. Completion percentage and yards-per-attempt are the two passing stats I value the most because they tell you how often a quarterback succeeds in efficiently moving the chains through the air. Finally, intangibles. Brady led all passers with a 10 on a 10-point scale, because he's a coach, an offseason facilitator, a free-agent recruiter -- and he does it while retaining respect from the guys he often has to lean on hard.
And, hey -- don't go saying, "King's such an idiot! He thinks Jon Kitna's one of the best quarterbacks in football.'' That's not what I think. What I think is that by the end of this year, we'll have seen Kitna as one of the 10 most productive quarterbacks in the NFL this season. Kitna's the golden child in the perfect spot for a quarterback in 2007, just as with every Mike Martz quarterback of the past few years. Now, it's fine if you want to say, "King's such an idiot! He thinks Kitna's going to throw for 4,300 again! No way!'' It's fine because it's your opinion, but it's probably wrong.
Finally, I used the 32 QBs I think will start for their teams on opening day. Do I think JaMarcus Russell will be the man in Oakland by Election Day? Absolutely. But not by Labor Day. And I don't think Charlie Frye will hold off Brady Quinn for the whole season, either. Even if I feel a team is making the wrong move (as in Kansas City going with the very green Brodie Croyle, which it looks like the Chiefs are going to do), the opening day starter is the guy I've rated here.
In the chart below, I've done a ranking of the 32 projected starters using combined 2005 and 2006 stats, just to give you a baseline of what each player has done the last couple of seasons. I used that as a partial barometer of his 2007 success.
One final note: Now that he's won the Super Bowl, how special is Peyton Manning, and how long a shadow must he cast for his little brother in New Jersey? Check out his line. Among two-year starters returning to start in 2007, Peyton has been the most productive over the last two years (8,144 yards), the best at getting it downfield (8.06 yards per throw), the most accurate (.660), with the best touchdown-to-interception ratio (+40). For years, we could say -- and not be wrong -- that all Manning does is put up great numbers. Now we've got to say he puts up intergalactic numbers while putting his team in a good position to win games.
Join the argument about Peter King's rankings at FanNation.