Jay Cutler threw nine touchdowns in five starts last season for the Broncos. Mike Moore/WireImage.com
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6. Denver: There is no young player more important to a playoff contender than Jay Cutler. Mike Shanahan wants badly to throw downfield, a la John Elway, and Cutler's accuracy will determine if he can do it or not. The secondary is a worry. I think that the loss of the late Darrent Williams is a bigger blow in a football sense than the addition of Dre Bly. Look for first-rounder Jarvis Moss to provide the kind of youthful defensive-line depth Denver needs with its veteran group.

7. Baltimore: We were all so quick to write off the Ravens. Last year, in a tougher division than Indy's, Baltimore compiled a better record (13-3 to 12-4) than the Colts, forcing Indianapolis to travel to Baltimore for their divisional playoff game and forcing Indy to play in the wild-card round. Maybe this year the most underrated player in football -- defensive tackle Kelly Gregg -- can finally get some of the credit he deserves.

8. Philadelphia: The equation here is very, very simple. If Donovan McNabb plays 16 games, the Eagles are a factor in the playoffs. If he gets hurt in November again, Andy Reid plays A.J. Feeley while starting to groom the kid, Kevin Kolb, for opening day 2008.

9. Seattle: Seattle was outscored last year. Isn't that shocking? It is to me. I expect the Seahawks to win 11 games, win the NFC West, and win at least one playoff game because they have their offensive health back.

10. St. Louis: My first surprise. It's risky putting first-rounder Adam Carriker at nose tackle (Scott Linehan tells me he weighs 312, and the Rams are convinced he can hold up, though I'm not). But I like the bookend defensive-end combination of Leonard Little and James Hall (who combined for 18 sacks in 23 games played last year), with La'Roi Glover alongside Carriker. You know the Rams will score. They always do.

11. New York Jets: The AFC East will be the best division in football this year, and it's going to be very tough for New York to go 10-6 again. Two impact players on defense in the draft -- cornerback Darrelle Revis and linebacker David Harris -- will help. Revis may not win Defensive Rookie of the Year, but I think he'll be the most impactful first-year defensive player in the league, even if he doesn't start from day one.

12. Pittsburgh: New coach Mike Tomlin won't be Mr. Popular with his players; he's scheduled 15 two-a-day practices, which I'm guessing is the most of any team in the league. But you know what I like? Tomlin doesn't care. The players have to adjust to him, not the other way around. The key here will be the resurgence of Ben Roethlisberger and Tomlin's ability to mold his 4-3 thinking on defense with Dick LeBeau's 3-4, zone-blitzing scheme. The 3-4 and the zone blitz have never been in Tomlin's defensive package. We'll see how seamless he can make the transition to them.

13. Detroit: Some year I'll pick the Lions to do something good and actually be right about the prediction. This is the year they make a quantum leap, I believe, because the defense will adjust to Rod Marinelli and new coordinator Joe Barry and play well. I like a second year in the Mike Martz offense. If you let Jon Kitna slide past the fourth round in your fantasy draft, you're absolutely crazy. Keep one name in mind on defense: Ikaika Alama-Francis, who, at 6-5 and 280 pounds, will get the chance to be the kind of interior pass-rush presence Marinelli needs to make his defense work.

14. Dallas: The Cowboys, post-Parcells, seem like they've just used their Get Out Of Jail Free Card. Bill's structure and rules are gone with let-'em-play Wade Phillips in charge. Be careful what you wish for. The Cowboys are a team on the precipice. They could dominate if Tony Romo is a B-plus quarterback, and they could be .500 if he stumbles. I'm betting it's somewhere between.