Ten Things I Think I Think

Virginia's Chris Long, son of Hall of Famer Howie Long, has 12 sacks this season and could be a top 10 pick in next April's draft. Randy Litzinger/Icon SMI

MAILBAG Peter King will answer your questions each week in Monday Morning Quarterback: Tuesday Edition. Your name: Your e-mail address: Your home town: Enter your question:

1. I think these are my quick-hit thoughts of Week 11:

a. The Tony Dungy and Deanna Favre's books are numbers 11 and 13, respectively, on the New York Times nonfiction bestseller list this week. Another SRO crowd Saturday at a Favre book-signing in Madison; she couldn't sign them all.

b. Told You So Dept.: I'm not right about a lot of things, but I did think the Texans paying Ahman Green,$6 million a year at age 30 was ridiculous. He missed another game on Sunday, hasn't played a complete game all year and has ceded the rushing job to Ron Dayne. You just don't pay significant money to 30-year-old backs these days, particularly a 30-year-old back who had missed 13 games due to injury the previous two years.

c. Calling around this week, I found top-10-in-the-2008-draft support for one of college football's most talented hard-triers, Virginia defensive end Chris Long. At 280 pounds, with 12 sacks and 17 tackles for loss this year, Long will likely be a defensive end in a 3-4 defense, though he's been so versatile as a collegian some scouts see him as an outside linebacker. Personally, after seeing a few highlights of his strength and relative quickness, I think he'd be a good defensive tackle, a la Chris Hovan, in a 4-3 front. The kid won't be denied. Howie, the dad, has to be very proud.

d. I don't give the Eagles a much better chance in Foxboro than the Bills had in Orchard Park last night. But really, who would match up well against New England right now?

e. God, the Panthers look hopeless.

f. Miami might be 0-10, but the Dolphins played a plucky game in Philadelphia. Is plucky the right word for a team playing hard without much of a chance? That's what I mean.

g. With the way the 49ers are playing, and because it looks like St. Louis and the Jets will both finish with better records than the Niners, I could see New England holding the second pick in the April draft, courtesy of the trade last draft day that sent the 49ers' first-round choice in 2008 to New England.

h. What a great, great job the New England offensive line is doing, building a consistently impenetrable pocket for Brady.

i. I love the Washington Post's "NFL Gameday'' page on Sundays. Clever, fact-filled, insightful, self-deprecating. On picking the Ravens last week against Cincinnati, Christian Swezey wrote: "Going with the Ravens and Steve McNair was a worse idea than the NHL expanding into Florida and North Carolina.''

2. I think the second life of Joe Gibbs running the Redskins might not end well. Gibbs is 6-10, 10-6, 5-11 and now 5-5 in his four seasons in his second stint as Washington coach. A 26-32 regular-season record. One playoff win. Of the Redskins' final six games this year, five are against teams harboring playoff hopes. Gibbs turns 67 in six days. He doesn't answer the questions about how much longer he'll coach, but it won't be surprising to anyone at Redskins Park if this is it for him. I've gotten the sense that, regardless the outcome of this season, this is it for him.

If it is, there's a pretty big problem on the horizon for Washington. There is only one team with less than $5 million in 2008 cap room left as we stand right now, and that team, to no one's surprise, is Washington. It would be understandable if the 'Skins were a few bucks north or south of the $116-million cap figure for 2008, but the Redskins are miles away from that. They are $19.5 million OVER the 2008 cap as we sit here this morning. That means they're $25 million worse-off than any team in the NFL entering the offseason.

Some of this can be cosmetically addressed, like converting a sizable roster bonus due to tight end Chris Cooley in 2008, which would be payable all in 2008, to a signing bonus, which would pro-rate it over the life of his contract. That's fine, except all that does is continually push more and more financial obligation into the future. There's significant dead weight on this cap. If they choose to cut unimportant wideout Brandon Lloyd, that would cost them $7.1 million in cap charges on the '08 ledger.

Moral of the story: If Gibbs quits at season's end, would Bill Cowher, who'll likely want to make significant personnel changes wherever he goes to coach, want to go to a place where he's fighting 31 other teams plus the Redskins' bloated cap? (I think Cowher is likely to stay at CBS for another year anyway, but that's not set in stone.) The cap situation may contribute to owner Dan Snyder wanting to hire from within, with either Gregg Williams or Al Saunders. Williams is more likely if Snyder stays in-house.

3. I think, speaking of coaches not far from the Beltway, Brian Billick's not going anywhere, people. Not this year. Not in the first year of a four-year contract. Not with $15 million or so due him if he were to get whacked. Baltimore owner Steve Bisciotti's not Dan Snyder in the patience or disposable-income departments.

4. I think these are my two thoughts on Ricky Williams' return. One: There's not a soul in this league who will trade anything, not even a well-used K ball, for a 30-year-old running back who will be 31 on opening day next season and who has tested positive at least four time for illicit substances. So ignore the people who say the Dolphins will try to show he's rehabbed in the last six weeks of this season, ready to play a prominent role somewhere. He may play somewhere else, but only after the Dolphins release him. Number two: The NFL was right to reinstate him. Addicts who are reformed -- or who show every sign of being reformed -- should be allowed to resume their life's work, under direct supervision.

5. I think this is what I liked about Week 11:

a. Carolina's Thomas Davis has made a great transition from safety to linebacker, and the game in Green Bay showed that. He dogged tight end Donald Lee on a drag route over the middle on the first series of the game, preventing the Packers from converting an early third down.

b. What a thing of beauty Carson Palmer's lofted 19-yard touchdown pass to T.J. Houshmandzadeh against Arizona was. Unfortunately for the Bengals, that may have been his last thing of beauty all day in Cincinnati.

c. Kurt Warner is my hero. Two one-handed desperation underhanded throws on one second-half drive. Brilliant.

d. My lord. The block of Maurice Jones-Drew that leveled Shawne Merriman, on the third-quarter touchdown pass from David Garrard to Marcedes Lewis, is the best block a back has put on a linebacker in the NFL this year. Find a better one. I challenge you. You can't. "Everyone was telling me, 'Good job,' and stuff like that on the sidelines after the block,'' Jones-Drew said from Jacksonville last night. "So I guess it was a pretty good block.'' Guess no more, kid.

e. Grady Jackson paid the Jags back for their faith in signing him off the street on one third-quarter, short-yardage tackle of Lorenzo Neal.

f. Leon Washington. One of the game's most underrated weapons. Ask the Steelers how much he helped beat them.

g. Don't throw Mario Williams out with the bath water just yet. He had a good day terrorizing Drew Brees and stunting Reggie Bush's growth in Houston.

6. I think this is what I didn't like about Week 11:

a. Kenton Keith, your hands are a disaster. If you're going to have a long career with the Colts, or with any team for that matter, you've got to catch the screen 99 out of 100 times, not 50 out of 100.

b. New Orleans cornerback Jason David, Four minutes into the Saints' game at Houston, Andre Johnson deked David -- who has had a disastrous first year with New Orleans after moving from the Colts in free-agency -- and got a good five yards behind behind him, catching an easy touchdown throw from Matt Schaub.

c. I don't remember seeing a quarterback throw into double-coverage as much as Philip Rivers is doing this season. Brutal.

d. Elementary rule of football, Chad Johnson: You can't carry the football like a ham sandwich. If you do, you tend to fumble it.

e. McNabb's passer rating on the day: 0.4. Looks like he'll play next week in Foxboro, by the way, sprained ankle and all.

f. I'm not blaming Norv Turner as much as I'm blaming Ted Cottrell for the San Diego disaster right now. Check the extended highlights of the Jags-Chargers game, and tell me how it's possible that so many Jacksonville receivers were so wide open, particularly in the second half.

g. Nice catch, Chris Henry. Fourth-and-6, late, down eight, last real chance of the day against Arizona, Carson Palmer throw right in your hands ... kerplunk. Drop. Horrible drop. With another one to follow.

h. It's a pretty bad day for football in Atlanta when fans are clamoring for Joey Harrington to enter the lineup.

i. Where is JaMarcus Russell?

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