Who to buy and sell? We have all the answers

Happy New Year, Hoopheads. As we all know, the new year signifies a new season in college hoops as conference play finally gets underway. That means teams are going to have to board real buses and airplanes to play real games against real teams.

Mustafa Shakur's improved shooting is a big reason why Arizona is a good bet to go deep into the NCAA tournament. John W. McDonough/SI

So it is my pleasure to once again issue my fourth annual turn-of-the-calendar reality check for college basketball in a Stock Report. My purpose here is not to rank the teams or figure out who will go furthest into March. Instead, I have assessed the current value of 20 teams as reflected in their records, rankings and standing in the mysterious land of conventional wisdom. Then I have projected whether those values will rise, fall or hold steady for the foreseeable future. In other words, just because I rate one team a Buy and another team a Sell does not mean that I think the first team is better than the second. It's all relative in this market.

Here, then, is my report  (no need to send me commissions):

Arizona: Buy

Everything is falling into place for the Wildcats to make a legitimate run at the national championship. Chase Budinger is as good as advertised, and don't look now but Mustafa Shakur is demonstrating a deft shooting touch (53.1 percent from the floor and 42.3 percent from three, up from 42.3 and 33.3 as a junior). I also think J.P. Prince's decision to transfer eliminates a potential chemistry problem. Some people might see Zona's lack of depth as a concern, but that will be only be a problem if someone else gets into foul trouble, gets injured or falls ill. If you can only watch two more games this season, I'd recommend both meetings between Arizona and UCLA.

Clemson: Sell

I'd think even the most diehard Tigers fans would have to agree with me on this one. Clemson does have some decent wins during its 14-0 start, including a four-point victory at Old Dominion and a 15-point home win over a pretty good Georgia squad, but what have the Tigers done to merit Top 25 consideration (23rd in the AP poll, 18th in the coaches poll). Perhaps Clemson will prove me wrong and go on a tear in the ACC, but if the Tigers don't, their non-conference slate is so weak that even a .500 record in the ACC won't guarantee an NCAA bid. Clemson is very athletic and has an emerging player in vastly improved sophomore swingman K.C. Rivers, but with three of its first four ACC games on the road and home games against Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Boston College coming up, Clemson could very well be 3-5 in the ACC midway through conference play.

Duke: Sell

With just one junior and no seniors, this is the youngest Duke team since World War II, so you have to give the Blue Devils credit for making it this far with just one loss. But if you've followed them closely, do you really believe this is the fifth-best team in the country? Greg Paulus played the best game of his career against Gonzaga and Josh McRoberts seems to be realizing he needs to play more like a center than a shooting guard, but this young group will certainly stumble once it gets into the teeth of ACC play. If last year's J.J. Redick-Shelden Williams-led group couldn't get past the Sweet 16, it's hard to imagine this one will.

Florida: Buy

When evaluating the Gators, you have to keep your eye on the big picture. They might struggle in tough road environments like Florida State or take too long to wake up and beat weaker foes like UAB. But as they showed in dismantling Ohio State, the Gators know how to play their best when their best is required (as John Wooden likes to say). This is still the best passing team in the country, so the only question from game to game is how healthy they are, how inspired they are defensively and how effectively Taurean Green, Lee Humphrey and Walter Hodge shoot from the outside. While I expect Florida to lose a few more games and possibly fail to win the SEC tournament, this team will still be on the short list of championship favorites come March.

Gonzaga: Hold

The Zags have now lost four of their last five games and have fallen out of the rankings. How much further can they fall, though? They will probably go undefeated again in a weak West Coast Conference, though the flip side is it will be hard to notch any noticeable wins and thus climb back into the Top 25. (The one exception comes Feb. 17, when Gonzaga hosts Memphis.)