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Wins to get in

Bubble teams with big victories, seed report and more

Posted: Thursday February 1, 2007 12:23PM; Updated: Thursday February 1, 2007 12:55PM
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Al Thornton helped lead Florida State to a win over Florida in December that could pay major dividends in March.
Al Thornton helped lead Florida State to a win over Florida in December that could pay major dividends in March.
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You have to win your way into the NCAA tournament, not back in. Thus, if you end up being a bubble team Selection weekend, it's important to have what I call a "hang-your-hat win."

Let's face it, when the committee is looking at the dozen or so teams vying for the last few spots, it will be looking at a big pile of mediocrity. Any win that stands out from the pile will be huge at that stage of the process. So as the proverbial bubble starts to take its first cloudy, slightly amorphous shape, here are five potential bubble teams with hang-your-hat wins that I predict will stand out six weeks hence:

Florida State 70, Florida 66, Dec. 3
Yes, the Gators didn't have Corey Brewer in this one (he was out with mono) and yes, the game was in Tallahassee. But Florida is a virtual lock to be a No. 1 seed, and if the Gators go into the tournament with only two or three losses, it's going to be a real boon to the Seminoles' hopes if they delivered one of them.

Drexel 81, Villanova 76, Dec. 9; Drexel 84, Syracuse 79, Dec. 19
Not only will these two huge road wins help build the Dragons' case for an at-large bid, it should also help the CAA get what it deserves -- namely, three teams into the tournament. It would be hard to justify sending Villanova or Syracuse ahead of Drexel when they couldn't even beat the Dragons on their own home floors.

Texas Tech 71, Arkansas 56, Dec. 16
The Red Raiders' wins at home over Kansas and Texas A&M were obviously huge, but a 15-point pasting on the road (though the game was in Little Rock, not Fayetteville) against an NCAA tournament team will look especially impressive. Most bubble teams won't have a lot of high-quality road wins -- or they wouldn't be on the bubble in the first place.

Missouri State 66, Wisconsin 64, Nov. 24
This game was played on a neutral court (it occurred at the South Padre Island Invitational) and it will seem like ages ago by the time the tournament rolls around. But Wisconsin could legitimately go into the tournament with two losses. If you're a bubble team, wouldn't you like to be one of only two teams that beat the Badgers all year?

UNLV 58, Nevada 49, Dec. 9
This one was a true road game, and it came against a team that has lost twice and been ranked in the polls all season. It has been hard for the Rebels to garner much attention with Air Force soaking up all the oxygen in the Mountain West, but UNLV is tied with the Falcons for first place and has just one more loss than they do. If UNLV is a bubble team, it will be an awfully good one.

Other Hoop Thoughts

Eric Devendorf's 0 for 11 shooting night in Syracuse's loss to Notre Dame on Tuesday night (the Orange's third straight loss) is a perfect microcosm of the Syracuse's season. This team's guards just don't shoot it well enough. Can you imagine an NCAA tournament without Syracuse or UConn?

• I don't know about you, but the more I watch North Carolina '07, the more I see Kentucky '96

• Speaking of the Heels, I was amazed to learn that before last weekend's thrashing by North Carolina, Arizona had never lost a game at home under Lute Olson by more than 12 points. That's a pretty amazing stat. Still, you have to wonder whether the Wildcats will ever recover psychologically from that whuppin.

• I saw Duke's Jon Scheyer play several times in high school, and I must say he is making a much smoother transition to college than I imagined he would. His pass to David McClure to beat Clemson was a sensational display of poise and precision. And I'm not just saying that because he's a fellow M.O.T.

• Pitt's Ronald Ramon still has too many quiet games for my taste, but the Panthers are so good in so many other areas that when Ramon is aggressive and making shots, they're nearly impossible to beat.

• Several mid-major leagues, knowing they will most likely only send one team to the NCAA tournament, allow their regular season champs to host the conference tourney. I wish every league did that. It would give more meaning to the regular-season title.

• I hope Notre Dame fans realize most of the schools the Irish play and recruit against wouldn't have suspended Kyle McAlarney for a single game, much less an entire semester. ND is still probably bound for the tournament, but this could have been a really dangerous team if it had McAlarney.

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