A media colleague told me a few days ago he thought Florida would really want to make a statement in this game. I disagree. The Gators have just one statement to make, and that will come on the first weekend in April. Kentucky, on the other hand, does have something to prove. The Wildcats quietly snuck their way back into the top 25 by winning 14 of 16 games, but they lack a signature win. (Their best victory in SEC play came at home against a Chris Lofton-less Tennessee team.) This is their opportunity, and I think Kentucky will seize it. The Cats are finally getting some consistent play out of guards Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford, but more important they're really starting to play Tubby Smith defense (they lead the SEC in field-goal D). Kentucky will have to put forth its best effort against the nation's best shooting team. In front of the wild denizens at Rupp Arena, including a certain fetching movie-star brunette, I say UK will capture a little magic and pull off the upset.

If there's one game to attend in the Missouri Valley this year, this is the one. After sputtering out of the gate with losses to Nebraska, Dayton and Hawaii, Creighton, which is tied with SIU for first in the league with an 11-3 record, has hit its stride in conference play. The best development has been the return to health of sophomore point guard Josh Dotzler, which has allowed Nate Funk to play off the ball where he is most lethal. We usually think of Creighton as a fast-paced, three-point shooting squad, but this team is only averaging 67.9 points per game. It is second in the Valley in points allowed (61.1), but if this game gets down to a defensive struggle, you have to give the advantage to a Southern Illinois team that once again is playing the best fundamental man-to-man D in America. The Salukis have also won seven straight against the Bluejays, including a one-point victory in Omaha on Jan. 20 in which SIU held Creighton to 36.6 percent shooting (including 1 for 8 from three-point range). I'm a little concerned about the condition of SIU's leading scorer Jamaal Tatum, who played only six minutes in the Salukis' win over Bradley on Wednesday because of a thigh bruise, but given that the Salukis have won 51 of its last 52 games at home against Valley opponents, I think they're a safe pick.

Tom Crean likes to find bulletin-board material in this column, so I won't let him down. Normally, I put a huge emphasis on perimeter play, and Marquette has the clear advantage in that department. But I like the way the Hoyas seem to be coalescing around their identity. It begins with stout defense (they lead the Big East in scoring-D and are third in defensive field-goal percentage). The Hoyas' defensive scheme is not predicated on risk (hence their paltry 5.0 steals per game), but they are good at stopping penetration and forcing teams to beat them with the jump shot. Outside shooting remains Marquette's most glaring weakness. It also appears Georgetown has finally figured out that the only way to win is to constantly feed Roy Hibbert the ball, no matter what the opponent is trying to do. He had 20 points and 22 rebounds in the Hoyas' win at Louisville on Wednesday and will enjoy a significant size advantage against the Golden Eagles.

So far, the Eagles have done a good job holding up in the wake of Sean Williams' dismissal, winning four of six games including a three-point victory over the Seminoles in Boston thanks to a Sean Marshall's three-pointer at the buzzer. Marshall got the lion's share of the credit for that win, but the real difference was point guard Tyrese Rice, who score 26 points. Still, like most teams, BC has had much less success on the road, where its best win has come at NC State. Tallahassee, where Florida State knocked off Florida back in December, is not a good place to try to improve on that. Before losing at Clemson by 13 on Wednesday night, the Seminoles had won five of their last six, including a one-point win at Duke last week. And if BC has the best player in the ACC in Jared Dudley, you could argue that Florida State has the league's second-best in Al Thornton, the versatile 6-8 senior who is leading the ACC in scoring (22.6 ppg) and is sixth in rebounding (8.1) in league games.

Maybe I'm a little trigger happy on the upset picks this week, but I keep returning to this nagging question: What, exactly, is UCLA playing for here? The Bruins are clearly the superior team -- they now own sole possession of first place in the Pac-10 thanks to their win over USC on Wednesday -- but in the grand scheme of things this game isn't all that important to their hopes of securing a No. 1 seed. West Virginia's 18-5 record is definitely inflated (non-conference strength of schedule ranking: 297), but the Mountaineers have one thing going for them that I really like here: They are ranked ninth in the nation in turnovers per game (11.5). This is West Virginia's signature stat, and it will serve them well against a UCLA team that relies heavily on transition opportunities. I've got to think Ben Howland will have an effective scheme to collar Mountaineers guard Frank Young, but UCLA has to fly across the country to face a fired-up non-league opponent that will play an intricate system in front of a raucous home crowd. If there's ever a formula for an upset, that's it.