For the millions of you out there who read Hoop Thoughts religiously, it probably surprises you to see me pick against Winthrop, given all the complimentary things I've written about the Eagles this season. But as soon as I saw Notre Dame's name pop up as its opponent, I sensed Winthrop was in trouble. The Eagles are a terrific offensive team (75.3 ppg), but the Irish led the Big East this year in scoring (81.5 ppg) and three-point percentage (39.7 percent). At 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, Russell Carter is the kind of big, strong athlete the Eagles don't see much of in the Big South, and I love the moxie that ND's two freshmen, Tory Jackson and Luke Harangody, bring to the floor. Notre Dame gave Georgetown a much tougher game than Pittsburgh did in the Big East tournament. As much as I love Winthrop, when I watched the Irish go toe-to-toe with the Hoyas, I did not think I was watching a team bound for a first-round loss.

Villanova is exactly the kind of team that can give Kentucky trouble. Nova has a very athletic front line in Curtis Sumpter, Will Sheridan and Dante Cunningham (with Shane Clark coming off the bench), which means they can swarm Randolph Morris and still keep UK off the boards. Villanova loves to pressure the ball, which is a problem for a Kentucky squad that committed more turnovers than its opponents this season. Most of all, while 'Nova guards Scotty Reynolds and Mike Nardi can go nuts from three-point land at any time, Kentucky doesn't have anyone making more than 38 percent from three and ranked ninth in the SEC in threes made this season. One ray of hope for Kentucky is Nardi's injury status, but I have a hard time envisioning the tough senior missing this game. UK will need to turn this game into a grinder and hope Villanova's perimeter guys are having an off night, but I frankly don't see either of those things happening.

The Hoosiers were undefeated at home this season, but when they left the friendly confines of Assembly Hall they were very beatable (2-8 on the road, 2-1 in neutral court games). I think a big reason is that this is still a pretty deficient team offensively, so their best hope for beating good teams is to defend with great energy and passion. I'm sure the Hoosiers faithful will travel to Sacramento in droves, but it's hard to recreate that energy in an arena divided up by eight sets of fans. That's why I like the Zags, who played in a lot of difficult road and neutral environments this season and seem to have their groove back following Josh Heytvelt's suspension. I wouldn't say Gonzaga is better without Heytvelt, but it has been interesting to see the contributions it is getting from glue guy David Pendergraft, who is more reliable (albeit far less talented) than Heytvelt. Also, Micah Downs, the transfer from Kansas who battled injury in December and January, is rounding into form at just the right time. I'm a big believer in teams that score easily, and Gonzaga's offensive prowess means it is playing on a smaller margin for error than is Indiana.

Which Texas Tech team is going to show up? The one that beat Texas A&M twice or the one that lost five straight between those wins? Bob Knight says the Red Raiders are lacking for leadership, but they will come into this game with a decided advantage in the backcourt. Jarrius Jackson, Martin Zeno and Charlie Burgess have had to carry Texas Tech this season, given how unreliable the team's post players (especially Darryl Dora) have been. You all know how much I love to go with good guards, especially when they're playing a team in Boston College that has lost five of its last seven games. People talk about how much BC misses Sean Williams' shot-blocking ability, but the real effect his suspension (and that of Akida McLain) has had on this team is its depth. The Eagles made up for the absences in the short term, but right now they look to me like a team playing on tired legs. Jared Dudley had a sensational year, but teams have figured out that the best way to play BC is to throw everything at Dudley and make someone else beat them. Just a hunch, but I'm guessing Coach Knight has already figured that out.

I blurted out on the CBS Selection Show that I liked ORU to pull off the first-round upset, so I might as well tell you why. It's not often you see a 3-seed play a 14 where you can say the 14 has: a) the best player on the floor (in this case, Caleb Green, a 6-8 senior forward; and b) more NCAA tournament experience (the Golden Eagles lost to Memphis in the first round last year, whereas Wazzu is making its first trip to the NCAAs since 1994). Not only is Green the leading scorer in the history of the Mid-Continent Conference, but because he has been double- and triple-teamed all his career, he has also become an effective passer out of the post. He is also terrific at getting to the foul line (he has shot a whopping 327 free throws this season, making 76.5 percent) and has a perfect complement in 6-1 senior guard Ken Tutt. The problem for Oral Roberts is that nobody outside those two guys is averaging more than eight points per game. So if either is having an off day or gets into foul trouble, the Eagles are toast. If this were a seven-game series, Wazzu would probably win it in six. But this is one-and-done, and I say the Cougs are done.