Sharpshooting Vols can pull the upset of Ohio State

Is there any doubt which was the best team during the first two rounds? The Jayhawks came out of the gate with an incredible sense of urgency and never let up, even late in the second half against Kentucky. (Contrast that with, say, UCLA's loss of focus in the last 10 minutes against Indiana.) That mature approach is the reason I still believe KU will win the championship. Though it will be hard to knock off UCLA in San Jose (if it comes to that), the Jayhawks drew the perfect matchup in Southern Illinois. Yes, the Salukis play terrific defense, but Bill Self has really put the pedal to the metal of KU's transition game. Even if SIU outplays Kansas for 30 of the game's 40 minutes, the Jayhawks will score a ton of points in their 10 minutes, whereas Southern Illinois will look to grind things out. The X-factor in this game, and maybe the entire tournament, is Kansas' versatile sophomore forward Julian Wright. He had a brilliant game against Kentucky in the second round -- 21 points (on 8-for-12 shooting), eight rebounds, three assists and two steals -- but has shown a tendency in the past to get a little careless with his passes. When Wright is on, all the other pieces on this team fall into place, and the picture they create is impressive.

You can count me among the legions of so-called experts who was skeptical of Memphis' gaudy record (and 17.2 point average margin of victory) as it romped through a weak Conference USA. And you can also count me among those who were stunned to see a squad that was ranked 314th in the nation in free throw shooting nail 26 of its 34 attempts to knock off Nevada in the second round. The biggest concern for Memphis now is that the player who hit 10 of 12 from the line against Nevada, leading scorer Chris Douglas-Roberts, had to leave the game with a badly sprained ankle with about five minutes to go. I'm sure CDR will dress, tape and try to go for this Sweet 16 game, but it's hard enough to beat Texas A&M with your most important player hobbled. The Aggies, meanwhile, did seem overwhelmed at times against Louisville's up-tempo attack, and Memphis will exert itself even more to make the pace as frenetic as possible. But A&M prevailed because of its defense, toughness and the preternatural poise of Acie Law. It won't be easy, but I think those assets, plus Memphis' return to form at the charity stripe, will be just enough to carry the Aggies into the Elite Eight.

I've been saying all year that UCLA's biggest loss from of last year's Final Four squad wasn't point guard Jordan Farmer, but rather center Ryan Hollins. You could make a strong case that replacing Farmar with Darren Collison was an upgrade at that position (especially on defense), but the Bruins have never found anyone who could man the middle like Hollins did. If there was ever an opponent who could take advantage of that deficiency, it's Pittsburgh, which boasts one of the nation's best centers in 7-foot senior Aaron Gray. But Gray has been rather pedestrian the last few weeks. (He had 14 points and eight rebounds against VCU, but was limited to 26 minutes because he was feeling sick.) I also have a hard time erasing from my memory Pitt's troubles once VCU turned up the full-court pressure and erased a 17-point second-half deficit. UCLA doesn't press and trap all over the floor the way VCU did, but the Bruins do swarm the ball in the half-court as well as any team in the country. And though UCLA will have a size disadvantage in the post against Gray, it can deploy quick, strong defenders such as Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Alfred Aboya. You also know Ben Howland will come up with a great overall scheme to neutralize Gray. So then it comes down to which team's guards do a better job of making shots and getting to the foul line. That's where UCLA has the advantage and that will be the difference.

There's no logical reason to expect a team that ranked last in the SEC in scoring defense, last in field goal defense, 10th in rebounding margin and which starts a 6-4 guy at power forward to knock off Greg Oden and mighty Ohio State. So why did the Vols play the Buckeyes so close -- in Columbus, no less -- before losing 68-66 on Jan. 13? The easy answer would be because Oden was still getting into the flow of things, but Oden actually had 24 points and 15 rebounds in 36 minutes. In fact, the reason UT kept it close was because it forced Ohio State to commit 20 turnovers. Tennessee's defensive percentages are misleading because its D is predicated on taking risks. Had the Vols not shot a woeful 7 for 31 from behind the arc against Ohio State, they would have won by 10. So while the Buckeyes have certainly improved since that meeting, so too has Tennessee. Consider that in their loss at Ohio State, the Vols attempted just 11 free throws, but they took 32 (and made 22) in their second-round win over Virginia. If Tennessee stays aggressive at both ends of the floor and shoots a respectable percentage from three, I think the Vols will pull off the upset.