Predicting a Florida-Georgetown title game

Greg Oden was invited to the USA Olympic trials last summer in Las Vegas, and though Oden did show up he was unable to compete because of his wrist injury. Too bad, because that would have been the only time Oden has played against a center who was bigger, stronger and in some ways better than he is. Roy Hibbert may not have quite the pro future that Oden has, but at this stage Hibbert is arguably the better player. Much of that is because Hibbert has two more years of playing experience, which, at this age, can equate to a great deal.

The one thing Oden clearly does better than Hibbert is change ends, which is why tempo will once again be a big determining factor (along with foul trouble for the two centers). That's another reason Georgetown has an advantage. If the Hoyas were able to slow down North Carolina and make them play a stodgy, slug-it-out half-court game down the stretch, then they should have fewer problems imposing their will on the Buckeyes. The Hoyas allowed opponents to score just 56.9 points per game this season, which ranked then fifth in the nation. As long as they keep Ohio State under 70, you have to like their chances.

Of course, Ohio State is used to playing ugly basketball -- it competes in the Big Ten, after all. And if Georgetown has the edge up front in Hibbert and Jeff Green, the Buckeyes are the better team in the backcourt. But Ohio State's best guard, Mike Conley, is at his most effective in the open floor, and he'll get those opportunities only if Georgetown commits a lot of turnovers or has a horrible shooting night. I don't see either happening. I also like the extra offensive punch Georgetown is getting from freshman forward DaJuan Summers, who went for 20 in the win over North Carolina. This is a close call -- especially since Oden has more potential than Hibbert to go ballistic and turn in a performance for the ages -- but in the final analysis, Hibbert's presence plus Georgetown's ability to control tempo should send the Hoyas into the title game.

A pretty good place to start is with the box score from last year's NCAA final. Florida won the game, 73-57, yet the Bruins actually out-rebounded the Gators by three. Ten of those UCLA boards, however, were grabbed by 7-foot senior center Ryan Hollins, who is no longer on the team. This year, Florida has out-rebounded its opponents in the NCAA tournament by 15.8 boards per game. They had 14 more rebounds than Oregon in the regional final. So you'd have to say that UCLA's biggest advantage last year is now its biggest disadvantage. That's bad news for the Bruins.

On the other hand, Florida only committed six turnovers in last year's title game (to UCLA's 12). In this year's tournament, the Gators have committed a total of 16 more turnovers than their opponents. But while UCLA's deficiency inside owes to the departure of Hollins (and to a lesser extent, forward Cedric Bozeman), Florida still has the same perimeter trio that handled UCLA's pressure with aplomb a year ago. So unless Taurean Green (who shot 1 for 9 in the title game), Lee Humphrey and Corey Brewer go ultra cold from outside, the Gators have every reason to feel optimistic.

I don't expect the game to be as one-sided as it was last year, if only because UCLA is a more mature and experienced team. But Florida is a better team than it was last year, too. Al Horford, in particular, is light years ahead of where he was in terms of his scoring ability in the post. Most of all, Florida has the confidence that comes with having won this tournament last year, clinched with a convincing win over this very opponent. UCLA has rightly earned its reputation as a great defensive team, but this Florida squad can play some pretty mean D of its own. UCLA will also do its level best to muck up the tempo and thwart Florida's transition attack, but the bottom line is, no matter what the Bruins throw at them, the Gators will have all the answers.