Like other elite programs, Duke suffers rare downturn

	Jon Scheyer was left bloodied and Duke beaten by VCU in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Rick Stewart/Getty Images
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So let's see if we have this straight. It's not yet St. Patrick's Day, and Duke's season is already over. UConn never even tasted the postseason. And barring a miracle, Kentucky and/or Arizona will be home by the end of this weekend.

Guess what, hoops fans? Even the nation's powerhouses aren't immune to the occasional down year or two.

That's probably not much solace tonight to the many passionate followers of the Duke Blue Devils. In their world, it must feel as if the sky is caving in. What had already been a rough season by Duke standards concluded in an all-out nightmare Thursday night, with 11th seed Eric Maynor and Virginia Commonwealth dealing the Blue Devils their first opening-round NCAA exit in 11 years.

This on the heels of a whole lot of other worsts-in-11-years: Worst NCAA seed (sixth), worst ACC record (8-8), worst overall record (22-11) ... well, let's just say it like it is: Worst Duke team since current assistant coach Chris Collins was wearing a uniform.

Mind you, "worst" is a relative term when the teams you're being compared to won a national championship (2001), went to two other Final Fours (1999 and 2004), were an NCAA No. 1 seed eight times and no lower than a No. 3 the others. By any standard, Duke has been college basketball's measuring stick for more than a decade.

This year ... they kind of stunk.

So what happened? What exactly precipitated this lost season for the Blue Devils? It's not like Mike Krzyzewski missed nearly an entire season with a back injury this time (like he did the season before Duke's last first-round exit.) You can't really blame early NBA defections, either - Duke's last two (Luol Deng and recruit Shaun Livingston) happened three years ago. Yes, they'd be a senior and a junior on this team -- but there are a whole lot of other schools' juniors and seniors playing in the NBA right now, too.

Isn't Duke one of those rare programs -- check that, the rare program - that reloads with a new set of McDonald's All-Americans every couple years? Yes it is. Why didn't it happen this time? Technically, it did. It's just that the latest crop of hot-shots aren't panning out as hoped.

When you look back at Duke's recruiting over the past decade, you'll see where Krzyzewski has been a master at not only reeling in talent but spacing out that talent almost perfectly. When Elton Brand, Corey Maggette and William Avery bolted after the '99 season, Jason Williams, Mike Dunleavy and Carlos Boozer were already waiting in the wings. Those guys' exits three years later were followed by the arrivals of J.J. Redick, Shelden Williams and Sean Dockery a few months later.

Theoretically, the same seamless transition should have occurred this past season with Josh McRoberts and Greg Paulus inheriting the reins. If anything, it should have gone more smoothly because Redick and Williams stayed for four full years. Problem is, it's been two seasons now, and McRoberts and Paulus have yet to live up to their billing. And it's probably never going to happen.

It's not that McRoberts and Paulus aren't good players. Heck, the pair combined for 47 points against VCU. They are not, however, enough to build a national-championship contender around. Not when McRoberts is a reluctant scorer. Not when Paulus is a defensive liability against more athletic point guards (like Maynor, or half the ACC's point guards for that matter). Christian Laettner and Bobby Hurley, they are not. Nor are they Shane Battier and Jason Williams or even Redick and Shelden Williams.

They are a couple of Robins in need of a Batman. And there is no Batman on the current Duke roster.

Standing outside his locker room following Thursday night's defeat, Krzyzewski told CBS' Bob Wenzel, "One of the things about success is that sometimes you lose. We lost more [games] this year than we have in each of the previous [10] seasons. Sometimes in order to appreciate winning, you have to get your butt kicked. We got our butt kicked. Hopefully it will help us get better next season."

It's a pretty safe bet Duke will be better next season. Barring ill-advised NBA defections by McRoberts and/or Paulus, the Blue Devils will return their entire team next season. DeMarcus Nelson will be a senior. Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson will have a year's experience under their belts. Another trio of McDonald's honorees -- forwards Kyle Singler and Taylor King, shooting guard Nolan Smith - will join the fold.

But will Duke instantly go back to being Duke? No. 1 seed/No.1 ranking/national-title hopeful Duke? Doubtful. As long as the Blue Devils revolve around McRoberts and Paulus, they're going to have a lower ceiling than they did for much of the past 11 years. It's not altogether different than what Kentucky or Michigan State has gone through the past couple seasons, what Kansas went through for those few years between Paul Pierce and Kirk Hinrich.

It's no crisis. It happens to everyone sooner or later.

It's just a little bit strange to see it happening to Duke.