USC falls 18 spots after shocking defeat to Stanford

The e-mails have been coming fast and furious since Sunday, and they all say something to this effect: "Can you please explain how USC only dropped eight spots after losing to a 41-point underdog at home while ..."

If you read my Sunday blog entry, you know I was just as baffled by you at my fellow pollsters' treatment of the Trojans. Somehow they fell the same amount of spots in the coaches poll (six) for losing at home to Stanford as Florida did for losing on the road to No. 1 LSU. AP voters were slightly harsher in dropping USC eight spots, though not nearly as harsh as they were to Georgia for losing at Tennessee (12 spots) or Wisconsin for losing at Illinois (14 spots). Like I said, baffling.

Unfortunately, I can neither read minds, nor do I have the time to survey 125 voters. Nor do I have an inflated enough ego to believe that my opinion is indisputably correct while theirs is not. (As you will see later, I made an error in judgment with another team this week). All I can do is explain my own rationale for dropping the Trojans from second to 20th this week.

First, I must start by admitting that, like most of my fellow voters, I believed the Trojans, 11-2 in 2006, were the No. 1 team coming into this season. I based this on the fact they returned a fifth-year quarterback (John David Booty) who'd just put on a clinic in the Rose Bowl, an All-America left tackle (Sam Baker) and several other experienced linemen, a stable of young but highly touted skill players and 10 starters from one of the nation's top defenses a year ago.

Even before Saturday's stunner, however, several of my preseason assumptions about USC had failed to come to fruition. Booty was not playing anywhere near the same level he did most of last season, while the new receivers were struggling mightily in their effort to replace stars Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett. Meanwhile, a rash of injuries had significantly depleted the Trojans' once-enviable backfield (to the point where Chauncey Washington was the lone healthy, proven tailback available against Stanford), its offensive line (starters Chilo Rachal and Kris O'Dowd) and its defense (LB Brian Cushing and CB Cary Harris).

In other words, USC, whose scare at Washington a week earlier alarmed AP voters enough to drop the Trojans to No. 2, was already exhibiting signs of potential trouble. But never in a million years would I have guessed the dam would break against a team that entered the game ranked 83rd in Jeff Sagarin's power ratings -- 11 spots lower than Appalachian State and just eight spots higher than Duke.

I brought up those particular teams for a reason. While it's easy to sit here now and hypothesize that Jim Harbaugh's Cardinal probably aren't as bad as we thought, the voters showed no such empathy when they dropped Michigan from fifth to out of the poll entirely for losing to Appalachian State. Meanwhile, how much further do you think the Trojans would have fallen had their loss come not to a conference opponent but to oft-maligned Duke? My guess is, quite a bit, when really, there wasn't much difference between the two at the time going into Saturday.

Now, you might say the Michigan comparison is unfair because it came in the first week of the season, when the Wolverines had no other body of work by which to judge them. Fair enough. Let's take a look at body of work we have at our disposal regarding USC.

The highest-ranked opponent the Trojans have beaten, according to Sagarin's ratings, is No. 36 Nebraska. Their one loss came to a team now ranked 61st. Of the 25 teams on my ballot this week, only six (Oregon, West Virginia, Texas, Kentucky, Virginia Tech and Wisconsin) have yet to beat a team ranked higher than the Huskers. Of those, the "worst" defeat any has suffered is Wisconsin's to No. 31 Illinois, while the Ducks, Mountaineers and Wildcats have all lost to teams currently in my top 10.

I have the Hokies one spot ahead of the Trojans at No. 19, while the Illini and Badgers sit in the two spots immediately below them. Texas, at No. 15, is my admitted mistake (as you'll see later).

So clearly there's no quantitative reason to keep USC in the top 10. Polls are admittedly subjective, however, and apparently most voters still believe the Trojans will wind up one of this season's elite teams. Personally, I just don't see what evidence of that they've provided.

NCAA Football Power Rankings Rank LW Team 1 1 LSU Tigers (6-0) It seemed like LB Ali Highsmith played a role in nearly every big defensive play against Florida. While Glenn Dorsey gets no shortage of recognition, Highsmith (12 pass break-ups or deflections) and safety Craig Steltz (41 tackles, four INTs) are the unsung heroes of the nation's No. 1 defense. Last game: Beat Florida, 28-24. Next game: Saturday at Kentucky. 2 3 Cal Golden Bears (5-0) There was a moment Saturday night -- after Stanford knocked off USC and before LSU mounted its comeback against Florida -- it appeared the Bears might rise to No. 1 without having to leave their couches. How ironic that it would have been the hated Cardinal that helped lift them. Last game: Beat Oregon, 31-24. Next game: Saturday vs. Oregon State. 3 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0) A popular game these days is comparing the current Buckeyes to the 2002 national title team. I see the similarities on defense, but this offense is not nearly as conservative. QB Todd Boeckman has already thrown for more touchdowns (14) in six games than Craig Krenzel did all year (12). Last game: Beat Purdue, 23-7. Next game: Saturday vs. Kent State. 4 6 Oregon Ducks (4-1) There's a notable disparity right now regarding the Ducks' ranking amongst national media versus other voters. Like me, Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit and Craig James all list the Ducks in their top five. In the overall polls, however, Oregon is eighth (coaches), ninth (AP) and 10th (Harris). Odd. Last game: Lost to Cal, 31-24. Next game: Saturday vs. Washington State. 5 8 Oklahoma Sooners (5-1) Speaking of disparities, it seems the BCS computers are trying to send a message to us human voters regarding the Sooners. The machines, not seduced by Sam Bradford's pretty passes and DeMarco Murray's electrifying runs against Texas, currently give OU an average rating of 23rd. Last game: Beat Texas, 28-21. Next game: Saturday vs. Missouri. 6 4 South Florida Bulls (5-0) Forget the Auburn and West Virginia wins. According to the still-skeptical fans and writers I've heard from, USF's close call against Florida Atlantic was definitive proof the Bulls are overrated. I punished them a bit myself but chalked up the result more to the "post-big win" letdown factor. Last game: Beat Florida Atlantic, 35-23. Next game: Saturday vs. UCF. 7 7 Boston College Eagles (6-0) If the Eagles plan to continue their reign as a top 10 team, then it's good they finally went out and laid a whipping on someone (Bowling Green) after struggling against Army and UMass. Strangely, this week's NBC game against a 1-5 team offers Matt Ryan his best showcase opportunity to date. Last game: Beat Bowling Green, 55-24. Next game: Saturday at Notre Dame. 8 13 South Carolina Gamecocks (5-1) I would like to take this opportunity to apologize to AP voter Jon Wilner, whose ballot I mocked a few weeks ago when he had the Gamecocks No. 4 and Rutgers barely ranked. Turns out, South Carolina is a lot closer to being No. 4 than Rutgers is to being No. 8 (where I had them at the time). Last game: Beat Kentucky, 38-23. Next game: Saturday at North Carolina. 9 16 Missouri Tigers (5-0) We knew the Tigers' Chase Daniel-led offense would be explosive, but the eye-opener last Saturday was Mizzou's previously suspect defense holding Sam Keller and the Huskers to just 297 total yards. Now, how will they fare against an Oklahoma offense averaging 482 yards per game? Last game: Beat Nebraska, 41-6. Next game: Saturday at Oklahoma. 10 9 West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1) It's hard to believe a 55-14 win could provide cause for alarm, but such was the case for the Mountaineers. QB Pat White went out with an injury (this time a strained chest muscle) for the second consecutive week, and Steve Slaton was once again less than dominant (15 carries, 68 yards). Last game: Beat Syracuse, 55-14. Next game: Oct. 20 vs. Mississippi State.

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