Coaches' job security, computer polls and much more

Nebraska coach Bill Callahan could be in big trouble, considering his biggest backer -- former AD Steve Pederson -- was just fired. AP

MAILBAG Submit a question or an opinion to Stewart. Your name: Your e-mail address: Your home town: Enter your question:

If two embattled coaches face each other in a game that's not being televised ... will anyone notice? This time of year, you betcha.

Stewart, does the loser of Saturday's Nebraska vs. Texas A&M game fire its coach following the game?
--Eric, New Knoxville, Ohio

It may seem a little early to be talking about firing coaches, but rarely can I remember so many big names putting themselves in such obvious jeopardy so quickly. Like ...

Things are getting really ugly for Houston Nutt in Fayetteville. First his brother Danny, who "resigned" earlier this year for health reasons, was spotted in the coaches booth against Kentucky and was reprimanded by the SEC. Second, banners with "THERE'S NUTTIN LIKE BEING 0-2 IN THE SEC" have been flying over the stadium the past two home games. Can Houston Nutt survive this battle and save his job, or is it too late?
--Spencer, Dallas

If I were to categorize the job-security of the nation's many "coaches on the hot seat," the three referenced above -- Nebraska's Bill Callahan, Texas A&M's Dennis Franchione and Arkansas' Houston Nutt -- would all fall into the most severe category: "Dead Men Walking." They are what Larry Coker and John Bunting were this time a year ago. And joining them on that list is fifth-year Washington State coach Bill Doba.

I realize this is a fairly serious proclamation to make of someone with half a season still to play, and believe me, I don't do it lightly. But these four have simply screwed up far too drastically to save themselves at this point.

The writing is on the wall for both Callahan, whose defensively challenged team will be fortunate to finish above .500 and whose last remaining backer, AD Steve Pederson, has now been ousted, and Franchione, whose own AD, Bill Byrne, didn't bother masking his contempt for the fifth-year coach following the disclosure of Franchione's moronic VIP newsletter. (And that was before his team put up seven points against Texas Tech last week.) Obviously, one of them has to win Saturday, but all that will do is delay the inevitable a week longer.

Nutt, meanwhile, has played into the hands of his already considerable critics with an 0-3 SEC start (I guess it's time for a new banner) that has all but eliminated last year's SEC West champs from contention. And while Doba is as nice a guy as they come, that doesn't make Cougars fans feel any better about watching their program slide from Pac-10 contender (winning 10 games from 2001-03) to the very bottom of the conference, below even Stanford at this point.

It's these egregious crimes that separate those four from guys like UCLA's Karl Dorrell, Clemson's Tommy Bowden, Arizona's Mike Stoops, SMU's Phil Bennett, Duke's Ted Roof and Marshall's Mark Snyder, all of whom are also hanging by a thin thread but could still theoretically save themselves (as Bowden has done countless times before). We'll put them in the "One Foot Out the Door" category. (Michigan's Lloyd Carr could re-join this group as well if his now-resurgent team were to suddenly cool off.)

Then there are a whole bunch of guys who are sitting on the brink of trouble but would need to perform pretty badly over the second half of the season to actually lose their jobs. They fall into the more mild "Roasty Bottoms" category. I'm speaking of you, Syracuse's Greg Robinson (whose AD, Daryl Gross, is essentially the East Coast version of Steve Pederson, and isn't likely to pull the plug on his grand hire after just three seasons), Baylor's Guy Morriss, Mississippi State's Sylvester Croom and Ole Miss' Ed Orgeron.

Speaking of Orgeron, his winless-in-the-SEC Rebels (0-4) host Nutt's winless-in-the-SEC Razorbacks (0-3) this weekend -- and despite the fact Arkansas won 10 games a year ago and has last year's Heisman runner-up in its backfield, would anyone really be surprised if Ole Miss wins? I won't. Not after the Rebels came within a few seconds of knocking off Alabama at home last week (and nearly rallied to beat Florida two weeks earlier), while the Razorbacks proved against Auburn that even a team with two superstars in its backfield (Darren McFadden and Felix Jones) can be held scoreless for nearly 59 minutes.

Remember all the craziness that hovered over Arkansas' program last winter and spring (lawsuits, fans requesting cell-phone records, etc.)? Remember how bizarre it seemed to anyone outside that state that even a segment of the Razorbacks' fan base could be so put out by a coach who had just orchestrated the school's best season in 17 years?

Turns out, the very events that touched off their outrage -- Nutt's condescending treatment of offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn and subsequent transfer of ballyhooed QB Mitch Mustain -- are what's biting him now. Arkansas has no passing attack. None. Zippo. Certainly star receiver Marcus Monk's season-long injury hasn't helped, but neither has Nutt's continued, puzzling faith in career 51-percent passer Casey Dick, or his mistaken belief that bringing back former assistant David Lee to be offensive coordinator (Malzahn, who subsequently left for Tulsa, was still on staff at the time), would fix the problem.

Which brings us to an important lesson to be learned from these three (not including Doba) high-profile coaching downfalls, all of which can be traced to one common trait: arrogance.

Pederson apparently believed to the end that his bizarre vision of Nebraska football as a de facto NFL franchise was superior to the long-held ideals of an entire state. Franchione was obviously delusional enough to consider himself so untouchable (even while posting a barely .500 record) as to think he could get away with something so blatantly unethical. And Nutt's stubborn adherence to nepotism (it recently came out that brother Danny somehow remains on Arkansas' payroll) over innovation (Malzahn -- or "high school," as he was supposedly referred to on Nutt's staff -- currently oversees a Tulsa offense averaging 573 yards a game) will likely cause him to fall from SEC coach of the year in 2006 to unemployed in '07.

Ironically, Nutt once turned down a $2.5 million-a-year-offer from Pederson, who himself reportedly made nearly $2 million a year prior to his exit. Perhaps they can finally join forces somewhere else next year -- like, say, Buffalo. Now that Tom Osborne is running the show in Lincoln, his former star quarterback, Buffalo coach Turner Gill, may soon be headed back to Nebraska. Gill currently makes a reported $183,000 a year.

Incidentally, Callahan, Franchione, Nutt and Doba also share a Mailbag commonality: All four were either included or mentioned in conjunction with last summer's Five Worst Coaches list. (As you may recall, blindly loyal Nebraska fans flooded my inbox the next week defending Callahan; I haven't gotten any of those this week).

For the most part, this 3-year-old annual feature has been amazingly prophetic, pegging not only those three but also Dorrell and Clemson's Bowden this year (No. 1 choice Al Groh is currently defying his status with a quiet 6-1 start), and in past years, since-fired coaches Chuck Amato, John L. Smith and Bobby Wallace. (Original No. 1 choice Chan Gailey somehow keeps hanging on.)

One 2005 selection, however, has gone on to prove me wrong in a big way -- as I was not-so-subtly reminded many, many times over the past few days.

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