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College Football Mailbag (cont.)

Posted: Wednesday November 14, 2007 12:18PM; Updated: Wednesday November 14, 2007 1:14PM
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Tim Tebow has produced 23 passing touchdowns and 19 running touchdowns.
Tim Tebow has produced 23 passing touchdowns and 19 running touchdowns.
AP
It's been hailed as "the definitive guide to the current state of college football." Order Stewart Mandel's Bowls, Polls and Tattered Souls: Tackling the Chaos and Controversy that Reign Over College Football.

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Stewart, with Tim Tebow continuing to put up gaudy stats week after week and carrying the Gators on his shoulders, do you think he has a legitimate chance to win the Heisman despite him being a sophomore and the fact that the Gators are all but out of title national contention?
--Sammy, Miami

I think we're way past the point of "does he have a legitimate chance?" From everything I've seen, he's at worst the co-favorite right now with Dennis Dixon, if not the favorite. The fact that he never really lost any steam despite Florida losing three games shows just what a phenomenal individual season he's having (3,250 total yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 19 running touchdowns). Other than the Georgia game, where his shoulder injury prevented the coaches from using him as a runner as much as they normally do, I can't imagine how he could possibly do any more than he has. Last week's stats against South Carolina were particularly absurd: 22-of-32 for 304 yards and two touchdowns; 26 carries for 120 yards and five touchdowns. Those would be impressive numbers had they come from two different players, nevertheless one.

But we're going to find out in the coming weeks just how much emphasis the modern Heisman places on team performance when it comes to selecting their winner, because Dixon, who's had a phenomenal season on his own right (2,623 total yards, 20 passing TDs, eight rushing TDs), will have a huge advantage down the stretch. In the BCS era, the national-title race so dominates our focus down the stretch that Oregon's game Thursday night against 4-6 Arizona will receive far more attention nationally than Tebow's seven-touchdown game the other night at 6-4 South Carolina. If Dixon has a big game and Oregon wins, he will only gain more traction, while Tebow can do nothing more than tread water against Florida Atlantic this weekend. That, as much as anything, is the biggest reason we've seen the Heisman race become so inextricably linked to the BCS race in recent years (six of the past seven winners played in the BCS title game).

I'm not yet ready to definitively declare one more deserving the other, nor is the race by any means down to just those two -- Missouri QB Chase Daniel, for one, has a chance to make a real impression down the stretch. But I will say that win-loss record should not be the deciding factor when choosing between two contenders. It's an individual award; it always has been. As for the age thing, that's been the most pleasant surprise to me about this year's Heisman race: I have not heard or read one person suggesting Tebow should not win because he's only a sophomore. I'm glad to see, after 72 years, that we're finally getting over that.

Stewart, what would happen if not enough conferences had eligible teams in the top 14 to fill the four at-large spots while sticking to the two-teams-per-conference maximum? (i.e., four SEC teams, four Big 12 teams, three Pac-10 teams, and only one each from the ACC, Big East and Big Ten).
--Hank Worrell, Roanoke, Va.

That's a great question, one I wondered myself after looking at this week's standings and seeing how close we are to that actually happening (substitute Tennessee for Virginia, and you'd have the exact breakdown Hank describes). And the answer is ... there isn't one yet.

You know how it sometimes seems like the BCS makes up the rules as it goes along? In this case, that's exactly what they're doing. According to my sources, the BCS commissioners have discussed the possibility but have not yet formalized a contingency. Sometime in the next week or so, they're expected to hold a call and choose between three options: Making the No. 15 team available, increasing the pool of at-large candidates by five or allowing three teams from one conference. Just my hunch: They'll try to avoid the third option, because that would mean one league reaping significantly more revenue than the three conferences with just one berth.

With all that said, such a scenario is unlikely to come to fruition, for two reasons: A) If either Hawaii or Boise State wins out, it will have no problem reaching the top 14. While non-BCS teams are only "guaranteed" a berth by reaching the top 12, they're eligible at No. 13 or 14 just like anybody else; and B) Illinois is already sitting there at No. 19, and the five teams ahead of them are all possible second ACC teams or Hawaii and Boise State. Should none of the ACC or WAC teams win out, and if Illinois beats Northwestern this weekend, the 9-3 Illini would likely slide into the top 14.

How the heck can college football increase the number of games in a season, keep the same bowl eligibility requirements (six wins), and the Pac-10 still not manage to produce enough teams to fill its bowls?
--Jeff G., Ellicott City, Md.

Two words, my friend: Karl Dorrell.

It was great meeting you last week at your book signing for Fiesta Bowl volunteers. However, I must admit some disappointment. I was shocked to see Arizona State on the short end of your "Upset Special" pick last week. Never mind that UCLA was coming off two straight losses, but just two days earlier you were on Arizona soil! Being so close to Tempe, did you truly not hear the heartbeat of a team that knows not the meaning of the word "quit?" Thanks again for signing my book, and for the support you have shown to my sister and her show!
--Ari Spiro, Phoenix

Loyal Mailbag readers, read that last line carefully ... then re-read the name of its author. Have you connected the dots?

Last week, the fine folks at the Fiesta Bowl invited me to conduct a book signing and Q&A at their monthly volunteer-committee event. Little did I know until just minutes before he came through the line that Ari -- brother of one Jordana Spiro -- lives in Phoenix and is a member of the Fiesta Bowl committee!

That's right, folks. As if you needed any further confirmation that it was meant to be, the Celebrity Crush has a direct family connection to college football. (How she neglected to bring this up in our previous conversations is another matter.) Nearly a week later, I am still floored by this coincidence.

But yeah, I did bomb on that Upset Special. I was convinced that the aforementioned Dorrell was going to pull off one last out-of-nowhere upset before he leaves town. (And of course, he still could, so beware, Oregon and USC.)

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