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Chaos theory

What happens if both Missouri and West Virginia lose?

Posted: Tuesday November 27, 2007 1:46PM; Updated: Tuesday November 27, 2007 6:18PM
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This is it, folks. Only one weekend of games remains, and the pecking order at the top is pretty clearly defined: Missouri and West Virginia in line to play for the national championship, with Ohio State sitting on deck.

But what would happen if both the Tigers (against Oklahoma) and Mountaineers (against Pittsburgh) were to lose this weekend? All hell would break loose, that's what. Georgia (10-2) currently sits fourth in the BCS standings and on my ballot as well, but would we really be OK with sending a team that failed to even win its division to the national championship game?

The case for the Dawgs: They're hot (six straight wins), they've beaten top 20 foes Florida and Auburn decisively and ... well, they're already up to fourth. The case against them: That no-division-title thing, not to mention losing by three touchdowns to Tennessee and losing at home to 6-6 South Carolina.

Mind you, every two-loss team has its share of flaws -- that's why they're a two-loss team -- but if this doomsday scenario were to happen, don't be surprised if the voters take another look at LSU (provided it wins Saturday's SEC title game), which will have won Georgia's conference and whose only blemishes are two triple-overtime losses; or Oklahoma, which would not only be Big 12 champion but would have done it by beating the nation's current No. 1 team, Missouri (twice, at that).

Whatever the result, the backlash would not be pretty. Here's guessing BCS officials are praying at least one of the current top two takes care of business Saturday. The way this season has gone, however, nothing is certain.

NCAA Football Power Rankings
Rank LW Team
1 4 I have no crack research team at my disposal, but if I did, I would ask it to figure out: a) Is this the first time a No. 1 team has played an opponent to which it lost that same season?; and b) Is this the first time a team has been an underdog in its first game immediately after ascending to No. 1?
Last game: Beat Kansas, 36-28.
Next game: Saturday vs. Oklahoma.
2 3 Whereas once upon a time Pat White and Steve Slaton were co-headliners, White has emerged as the Mountaineers' undisputed go-to guy of late -- and it's working. In his past four games (all wins), White has rushed for 156, 147, 155 and 186 yards. Who does he think he is, Darren McFadden?
Last game: Beat Connecticut, 66-21.
Next game: Saturday vs. Pittsburgh.
3 5 Part of me thinks a national-title showdown of West Virginia's dynamic spread-option offense against Ohio State's top-ranked defense would be highly intriguing. Another part of me thinks if the Buckeyes couldn't slow down mobile Juice Williams, what chance do they stand against White?
Last game: Beat Michigan, 14-3.
Next game: Bowl game TBA.
4 6 Assuming the Dawgs don't reach the title game, it looks fairly certain they'll wind up in the Orange Bowl against Saturday's Virginia Tech-Boston College winner. There's also the possibility they could wind up replacing Ohio State in the Rose Bowl if the Buckeyes move up to the title game.
Last game: Beat Georgia Tech, 31-17.
Next game: Bowl game TBA.
5 1
LSU Tigers (10-2)
Concerns about Les Miles' potential departure for Michigan have undoubtedly been preempted by news of defensive coordinator Bo Pelini interviewing with Nebraska the week of the SEC title game. Pelini's defense, which gave up 513 yards to Arkansas, could sure use his attention.
Last game: Lost to Arkansas, 50-48 (3 OT).
Next game: Saturday vs. Tennessee.
6 13 The Trojans showed against Arizona State what might have been had they not endured such a rash of injuries on offense. QB John David Booty, whose broken finger contributed to the loss to Stanford, had his biggest game of the year, throwing for 375 yards, four TDs and no interceptions.
Last game: Beat Arizona State, 44-24.
Next game: Saturday vs. UCLA.
7 9 The Sooners hardly missed injured RB DeMarco Murray against Oklahoma State, as Allen Patrick gashed the Cowboys' defense for 202 yards. One injured standout they sure could use against Missouri is DE Auston English, but he's likely out until the bowl game with a broken right ankle.
Last game: Beat Oklahoma State, 49-17.
Next game: Saturday vs. Missouri.
8 2 QB Todd Reesing and the Jayhawks showed tremendous grit in scoring three fourth-quarter touchdowns to rally against Missouri, but the Tigers also exposed two previously latent Kansas flaws: the lack of a breakaway running back and very little penetration from the defensive ends.
Last game: Lost to Missouri, 36-28.
Next game: Bowl game TBA.
9 12 Do the Hokies stand a better chance of beating Boston College in Jacksonville than they did on their home field five weeks ago? Virginia Tech's offense, a complete non-factor in that 14-10 loss, has shown dramatic improvement since then, averaging 39 points in their past three contests.
Last game: Beat Virginia, 33-21.
Next game: Saturday vs. Boston College.
10 11 Many figured Tim Tebow would eventually sustain some wear and tear from extensive use by Florida's coaches. Considering Tebow's importance to the Gators, it was awfully convenient of him to save that injury (a broken non-throwing hand) for the five-week break before the bowl game.
Last game: Beat Florida State, 45-12.
Next game: Bowl game TBA.

Click below for teams 11-20

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