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Bowl Projections

The big question still looms ... who's No. 2?

Posted: Sunday December 2, 2007 3:40AM; Updated: Sunday December 2, 2007 9:24PM
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These final set of projections were compiled following Saturday night's games but prior to the release of the new polls Sunday. It's impossible to predict how exactly the voters will treat this unprecedented scenario, but the best guess is that Ohio State will be No. 1 and either Georgia or LSU will be No. 2.

Operating under that assumption, whichever SEC team goes to the national championship game, the other will likely wind up in the Sugar Bowl (LSU goes there automatically if not No. 1 or 2, and if the Sugar loses the Tigers, it gets first crack at Georgia to replace them). The following chart lists both teams as possibilities for both games. The chart will be updated Sunday if the polls indicate a different finish and/or when teams officially accept bowl invitations.

One note about the BCS selection order. If the national-title matchup is in fact Ohio State vs. LSU, then the Rose Bowl gets first choice of at-large teams to replace the Big Ten champion Buckeyes, and the Sugar Bowl gets second choice to replace the SEC champion Tigers. HOWEVER, there is a little-known BCS rule that says if a bowl loses its host team, it gets first rights to choose another team from that conference.

I bring this up because there had been speculation last week that if the Rose Bowl lost Ohio State, it would select Georgia to face USC. However, if the Sugar loses its host team, LSU, it could theoretically prevent the Rose from taking the Bulldogs.

All of this is probably moot, because the Rose will likely stick to its Big Ten roots and select Illinois, assuming the Illini finish in the top 14 of the BCS standings. They were 15th last week, and the team immediately above them, Tennessee, lost Saturday.

As always, here are a couple of facts to be aware of when reading these projections:

• Bowls are not obligated to choose their teams in exact order of conference standings. For instance, "Big Ten No. 3" means "third choice of Big Ten teams" -- not "the Big Ten's third-place team."

• Note that a bowl can only select a 6-6 team from a conference if no 7-5 teams from that league are still available (or if it can guarantee a spot elsewhere for the 7-5 team). Similarly, bowls seeking an "at-large" team to replace a conference that did not produce enough eligible teams cannot choose a 6-6 team if there is a 7-5 team available.

BCS/New Year's Day Games
Date Bowl Matchup
Jan. 7 BCS Title Ohio State (BCS No. 1) vs. LSU (BCS No. 2)
Jan. 3 Orange Virginia Tech (ACC champ) vs. Kansas (BCS at-large)
Jan. 2 Fiesta Oklahoma (Big 12 champ) vs. West Virginia (Big East champ)
Jan. 1 Sugar Georgia (BCS at-large) vs. Hawaii (BCS at-large)
Jan. 1 Rose USC (Pac-10 champ) vs. Illinois (BCS at-large)
Jan. 1 Capital One Michigan (Big Ten No. 2) vs. Florida (SEC No. 2)
Jan. 1 Gator Texas Tech (Big 12 No. 4) vs. Virginia (ACC No. 3)
Jan. 1 Cotton Missouri (Big 12 No. 2) vs. Arkansas (SEC)
Jan. 1 Outback Wisconsin (Big Ten No. 3) vs. Tennessee (SEC)
Other Games
Date Bowl Matchup
Jan. 6 GMAC Tulsa (C-USA No. 2) vs. Bowling Green (MAC)
Jan. 5 International Rutgers (Big East) vs. Ball State (MAC)
Dec. 31 Chick-fil-A Clemson (ACC No. 2) vs. Auburn (SEC)
Dec. 31 Insight Indiana (Big Ten No. 6) vs. Oklahoma State (Big 12 No. 6)
Dec. 31 Music City Kentucky (SEC) vs. Florida State (ACC)
Dec. 31 Sun Oregon (Pac-10 No. 3) vs. USF (Big East No. 2)
Dec. 31 Humanitarian Fresno State (WAC) vs. Georgia Tech (ACC No. 8)
Dec. 31 Armed Forces Cal (Pac-10 No. 6) vs. Air Force (MWC)
Dec. 30 Independence Colorado (Big 12 No. 7) vs. Alabama (SEC)
Dec. 29 Alamo Penn State (Big Ten No. 4) vs. Texas A&M (Big 12 No. 5)
Dec. 29 Liberty Mississippi State (SEC) vs. UCF (C-USA No. 1)
Dec. 29 Meineke Car Care Wake Forest (ACC) vs. Connecticut (Big East No. 3)
Dec. 28 Emerald Oregon State (Pac-10 No. 4) vs. Maryland (ACC)
Dec. 28 Texas TCU (Big 12 No. 8) vs. Houston (C-USA)
Dec. 28 Champs Sports Boston College (ACC No. 4) vs. Michigan State (Big Ten No. 5)
Dec. 27 Holiday Arizona State (Pac-10 No. 2) vs. Texas (Big 12 No. 3)
Dec. 26 Motor City Purdue (Big Ten No. 7) vs. Central Michigan (MAC)
Dec. 23 Hawaii Boise State (WAC) vs. East Carolina (C-USA)
Dec. 22 Las Vegas UCLA (Pac-10 No. 5) vs. BYU (MWC No. 1)
Dec. 22 New Mexico New Mexico (MWC) vs. Nevada (WAC)
Dec. 22 PapaJohns.com Cincinnati (Big East) vs. Southern Miss (C-USA)
Dec. 21 New Orleans Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt No. 1) vs. Memphis (C-USA)
Dec. 20 Poinsettia Utah (MWC) vs. Navy (at-large)
Teams in bold have accepted bowl invitation.
* -- replacement team for conference without enough eligible teams.

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