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It's logical that Pletcher will soon embark on a similar run. On Saturday at Gulfstream he won five races, including three stakes. He currently has at least six genuine Kentucky Derby contenders: Scat Daddy, Ravel (California-based winner of the Sham Stakes who is now training up to the April 7 Santa Anita Derby), Circular Quay (running next Saturday in the Louisiana Derby), Any Given Saturday (set to face Street Sense in the March 17 Tampa Bay Derby and oh, by the way, love the name), Soaring By (also in the Louisiana Derby) and Sam P. (runner-up in Saturday's Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita).

On top of this group, Pletcher's King of the Roxy won the 7½-furlong Hutcheson Stakes on the Fountain of Youth undercard. Pletcher indicated that he was inclined to keep the King in one-turn races, but the Hutcheson has previously produced Derby winners. Wait and see on this one.

It is, of course, an embarrassment of riches, which only rachets up the public impatience for Pletcher to win a Derby and get it over with. His own patience and grace with this topic are admirable and part of the Pletcher vibe. If he lies awake nights, tormented by never winning the Derby, he hides it well, and, as always, it helps to sleep on a pile of money and trophies and Pletcher has both.

So there is a temptation to say that this will be the year, but that is a foolish statement to make on the first weekend in March. Any definitive statement about Derby prospects in early March is inherently dangerous.

Consider: On Thursday of this week, Tagg was surrounded by reporters at his Gulfstream barn, because Nobiz Like Showbiz was all the buzz. Tagg is deeply conservative in his training, yet from the first day he saw Nobiz Like Showbiz last winter in Florida, he has been smitten. After first seeing the colt, he pulled out his cell phone and called owner Elizabeth Valando and told her, "Mrs. Valando, this is the most beautiful horse I've ever seen.''

Days later, Tagg's assistant, Robin Smullen, told Valando, "I've never seen Barclay make a call like that before even leaving the farm.''

At Gulstream Tagg did not back off his confidence. After describing the brilliant (and deceased) Barbaro as, "As fabulous a horse as anyone has seen in a long time,'' he was asked if he put Nobiz in that same category.

"I think so,'' said Tagg. "I think so.''

Now Tagg is back at Square One. "The whole race surprised me,'' he said after the Fountain of Youth. I thought he'd win the race.''

Derby season affords no such certainties. Ask Pletcher. But don't expect him to squirm.