Preakness might come down to another inside job

	In the Derby, Calvin Borel and Street Sense passed most of the field on the rail. Jeff Haynes/AFP/Getty Images
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Can Street Sense win the Preakness? Absolutely.

Will he? I believe so, but it's complicated, and at any rate that's why they run the races.

How about the Triple Crown? Watching him swallow up horses and gallop off to win at Churchill Downs last Saturday, it looks like a possibility. But there's a reason why it hasn't happened in 28 years. So let's not get ahead of ourselves.

I have now watched Calvin Borel's winning Derby ride a couple dozen times. Three things stand out:

1. Borel's confidence in taking Street Sense back at the start, steering hard to the rail and just letting the race develop in front of him. True enough, it's an easy ride back there (albeit with a lot of dirt up the nostrils, which not every horse likes) and the shortest distance around the oval, but in the 20-horse Derby field, a million things can happen going from 19th to first and a few of them usually do.

2. The way in which the rail opened up on the turn when Borel asked Street to run. In less than a quarter mile, Borel passed 14 horses without ever leaving the wood (or the aluminum, or whatever the Churchill rail is made of), while absolutely flying. It's true that tired horses will drift off the rail, and this is doubly true on the turn, where centrifugal force also affects the horses and where only the best athletes can hold their tight position. But the fact that not a single horse stayed down low and forced Borel wide is astounding. When he finally ran up on the butt of Liquidity, jockey David Flores was just beginning to steer Liquidity slightly to the outside (after an effective inside run of his own) to pass the tiring Sedgefield, so Borel bolted past Liquidity and then darted outside Sedgefield (in this week's Sports Illustrated, I said that Street Sense moved so nimbly that it looked like Borel was riding a squirrel, not a horse; I'll stand by that description after repeated viewings).

3. Street Sense's volcanic fitness on gameday. Trainer Carl Nafzger knows what he's doing and had prepared Street Sense for a terrific effort. Even if Borel had gotten lousy racing luck, Street Sense gave every indication that he would have been a threat just the same. (This is part of the reason I like Street Sense so much in the Preakness, but there are other factors).

Two days after the Derby I talked on the phone to Nafzger. He was hoarse and still emotional over winning his second Derby. The first, of course, was with Unbridled in the famous "I love you Mrs. Genter'' Derby of 1990.

By the next morning Nafzger was getting Preakness questions that he says he wasn't ready for. "Here's what happened the next day,'' Nafzger told me. "People started asking me questions and I pulled down this picture from the right side of my brain and it said Kentucky Derby and it was totally full with all this planning for the Derby. Then I reached over to the left side of my brain and pulled down a sheet that said Preakness it was completely blank, like a white piece of paper. That's it.''

After Funny Cide won the Kentucky Derby in 2003, I remember calling trainer Bob Baffert to ask about Funny Cide's chances in the Preakness. Baffert imparted some knowledge that makes infinite sense and which he has repeated every time I've asked him since. "The horse that wins the Derby should win the Preakness,'' Baffert said. "He was the best horse in the Derby and it's only two weeks later.''