Menard may not be in Montoya's shadow for long

	Driving in the shadows of Dale Earnhardt, Jr.'s contract dispute at DEI, Paul Menard may quietly surprise a lot of racing fans. Robert Laberge/Getty Images for NASCAR
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With all the preseason hype following a certain Colombian driver from Formula One, it's easy to fall into the trap of believing Juan Pablo Montoya is the only driver running for rookie of the year in NASCAR's top series.

Well, that's not entirely true. There are no less than six drivers competing for the honor, and while most have already handed the award to Chip Ganassi's newest protégé, each of these men start the year with the same chance at achieving the prestigious honor won by current superstars Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick.

So, who's really got the upper hand in the 2007 rookie battle? You may be surprised. Check out each rookie's résumé and prospects for success below:

Paul Menard

Car: No. 15 Menards Chevrolet
Owner: Dale Earnhardt, Inc.
Earned his opportunity by ... Winning the 2006 Busch Series Race in Milwaukee, finishing 6th in Busch Series points.
Best Nextel Cup finish: 7th (Atlanta)

Analysis: After three full seasons in Busch for D.E.I., the 26-year-old moves up to Nextel Cup full-time in '07. Menard's '06 season included a breakthrough win at Milwaukee, as he held his own against several Cup regulars on his way to becoming the highest finishing Busch-only driver in the final series standings. The knock on this kid has always been that he got his chance because of his rich father, but don't listen to that talk; he has already proven he can drive with the best of them. Menard's Cup career includes a Top 10 on his résumé in nine career starts, and he's working with an organization that just experienced the ups and downs of a rookie season with Martin Truex, Jr. They won't make the same mistakes twice. Menard has both the equipment and the talent to become the surprise choice for Rookie of the Year.

Pressure Meter: Low. Menard's third on the D.E.I. totem pole, and with contract negotiations for Dale Earnhardt, Jr. going on, he will be able to lead a quiet, low-key existence. Add in the overwhelming publicity for fellow rookie Montoya, and the stage is set for Menard to quietly sneak his way to a fast start.

Look for Menard to succeed at: New Hampshire, Charlotte, Atlanta.

Close your eyes at: Daytona, Talladega.

Odds to win Rookie of the Year: 3-1.

Juan Pablo Montoya

Car: No. 42 Texaco Dodge
Owner: Chip Ganassi Racing
Earned his opportunity by ... Winning the 1999 CART Title, 2000 Indy 500, and driving six years in Formula One.
Best Nextel Cup finish: 34th (Homestead)

Analysis: After seven months of hype, one of the most celebrated open wheel drivers in history begins his quest to change the face of the NASCAR world. Taking over the No. 42 ride vacated by Casey Mears, Montoya looks to prove his exceptional talent can translate into the world of stock cars. Early on, he's been impressive, running in the Top 20 in his first Nextel Cup race before tangling with Ryan Newman at Homestead last fall. He qualified in the Top 5 for the Daytona 500, and is the pick by many to cakewalk to the rookie title. But things won't always be a bed of roses. Montoya has never handled some of the complexities of tracks less than a mile in length, and he's driving for a team that has never finished higher than 11th in points. With teammates Reed Sorenson and David Stremme combining for two years of Nextel Cup experience, Montoya doesn't necessarily have veteran leadership to rely on for support, either.

Pressure Meter: High. Just the mere presence of the Colombian in the sport has added millions of fans; there are Montoya souvenir giveaways going on in places as far away as Siberia. Siberia! Along with that world recognition has come a media horde that follows Montoya like a pack of flies wherever he moves in the garage. Can the admittedly temperamental Colombian deal with that all season, especially if he hits some bumps in the road as a rookie? One loss of composure could be all it takes for the year to take a sudden turn for the worse.

Look for Montoya to succeed at: Infineon, Watkins Glen, Daytona, Talladega, Michigan.

Close your eyes at: Bristol, Martinsville.

Odds to win Rookie of the Year: 5-1.