The prediction business never has been more difficult in baseball. So-called surprise teams happen so often these years that you should expect at least one playoff team to come out of nowhere -- or even Milwaukee, if you care to be specific.
Look at it this way: 10 teams in the past seven years have zoomed straight from a losing record one season to the playoffs the next, including three World Series teams (2002 Angels, '03 Marlins, '06 Tigers). So in making my predictions for 2007, I can't ignore the trend. Of the 16 losing teams from last year, at least one will be in the postseason last year --- and no, it's not the Washington Nationals, who are a 100-loss train wreck waiting to happen.
To find out this year's Cinderella, as well as my other annual predictions for major (and minor) awards, read on. As usual, I've mixed in a review of how my 2006 picks turned out. I had five of the eight postseason teams last year, missing on the Twins, Padres and those surprising Tigers. That brought my four-year percentage to .594 (19 of 32 postseason teams called correctly).
AL MVP
My pick for 2006: Paul Konerko, White Sox. Nice year, but 23rd place in the voting does not qualify as a near miss. Winner: Justin Morneau.
My pick for 2007: Grady Sizemore, Indians. It's difficult for a leadoff hitter to win the award, but Sizemore helps win games in too many ways to ignore.
NL MVP
2006: Albert Pujols, Cardinals. He got my vote for the award, but not enough from other voters to avoid a second-place finish for the third time. Winner: Ryan Howard.
2007: Pujols. Did you see that outfield St. Louis ran out there Opening Day? Checked out their rotation? If they make it to the postseason it will be because of Pujols.
AL Cy Young Award
2006: Rich Harden, Athletics. CyBex Award winner is more like it, given his familiarity with rehab training machines. Winner: Johan Santana.
2007: Santana, Twins. We may be looking at another Pedro-like run here.
NL Cy Young Award
2006: Jake Peavy, Padres. Took a step backward with an 11-14, 4.09 season. Winner: Brandon Webb.
2007: Ben Sheets, Brewers. Health is always a question. But if he makes 32 starts, don't be surprised if Milwaukee wins the NL Central.
AL Rookie of the Year
2006: Delmon Young, Devil Rays. Any chance flew away with that bat he tossed at a minor-league umpire. Winner: Justin Verlander.
2007: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox. Easy. He should win between 15 and 18 games with an ERA around 3.50 and about a strikeout per inning.
NL Rookie of the Year
2006: Prince Fielder, Brewers. Not a bad call in what was a very crowded field. Winner: Hanley Ramirez.
2007: Chris Young, Diamondbacks. His combination of power, speed and guaranteed spot in center field is a tough combination to beat.
AL Manager of the Year
2006: Ken Macha, Athletics. Finally took the A's past the first round, then was told to take a walk. Winner: Jim Leyland.
2007: Mike Scioscia, Angels. One of the game's most aggressive managers wins for the second time.
NL Manager of the Year
2006: Grady Little, Dodgers. Finished fourth with one first-place vote despite taking Los Angeles from 91 losses to the postseason. Winner: Joe Girardi.
2007: Willie Randolph, Mets. Near winner last season will be recognized for steering a team with no 200-inning pitcher -- and many question marks on the pitching staff -- to the postseason.
AL Home Run Champion
2006: Mark Teixeira, Rangers. Home run output dropped from 43 to 33. Winner: David Ortiz (54).
2007: Ortiz, Red Sox. Too dominating to ignore again, especially with Manny Ramirez behind him to make sure he gets pitches to hit.
NL Home Run Champion
2006: Derrek Lee, Cubs. Broken hand turned him into a non-factor. Winner: Howard (58).
2007: Howard, Philadelphia. A post-testing record of 62 homers is very much a possibility.
AL Batting Champion
2006: Derek Jeter, Yankees. Gave Joe Mauer a good run for the title. Winner: Mauer (.347).
2007: Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners. Keep an eye on Howie Kendrick of the Angels and Robinson Cano of New York, who will be dueling for the title for the next decade.
NL Batting Champion
2006: Pujols, Cardinals. Finished third. How's this for consistency over the past three years: .331, .330, .331. Winner: Freddy Sanchez (.344).
2007: Garrett Atkins, Rockies. Solid approach and simple swing should have him among the league leaders for years.
