Posada excels while Varitek, Rodriguez go into decline

Jorge Posada, right, is on pace to set a career high in OPS at .951. AP

Would you give about $28 million over the next two seasons to a 36-year-old catcher? History says it is not a wise investment. Only three catchers ever posted an .800 OPS once they passed that age (Carlton Fisk, Gabby Hartnett and Wally Schang). Now consider three catchers who, starting this month, turn 36 within six months of one another: Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Varitek and Jorge Posada.

Rodriguez and Varitek exhibit the familiar decline from catchers at this age and, because of the demands of the position, are finished as true impact hitters. But then there is Posada. Lost amid the spectacle of Alex Rodriguez's Most Valuable (and Visible) Player season, the molten-hot second-half run of the Yankees and the fascination with phenom Joba Chamberlain, Posada is having not only his greatest season, but also one of the greatest ever for a catcher of his age. A free agent after this season, he will make the Yankees pay for waiting to sign him -- either in the money they'll fork over or the trouble they'll have replacing him.

Posada, who never hit better than .287, and who turned 36 last week, began this week batting .332. His OBP (.412) would also be a career-high and his slugging (.525) is near his career best.

"Every game I've watched this season Posada has been right on everything," said one AL GM. "He's been locked in from Day One. It seems like the only way you get him out is to hope he hits it at somebody. It hasn't been a fluke."

Only one catcher age 35 or older ever put up a better average, OBP or slugging than Posada: Hartnett, who did so for the 1937 Cubs at age 36. Hartnett passed 1,500 games caught that season; Posada is at 1,329. And how did Gabby age after that season? Quickly and badly. He never played in 100 games again and never hit with nearly the same kind of power. It's safe to assume fitness training and nutrition have improved a bit in the past 70 years, however, so the relevance of Hartnett's decline goes only so far.

The Yankees have little choice but to re-sign Posada, who will get a nice boost from the $12 million he's making this season. That's because there are no close comparables to Posada who will be available. Consider, for instance, Pudge Rodriguez. The Tigers hold an option on Rodriguez for $13 million. He's not worth that kind of money, but because their buyout is $3 million, the Tigers have to decide whether he's worth the additional $10 million it would cost to keep him. That's debatable, even with the lack of premier catchers available.

Rodriguez has caught 2,032 games, which may be more relevant than his age; he turns 36 in November. His OBP for the season is awful (.292, with just five walks!), but his hitting since the All-Star break is frighteningly bad. Rodriguez has no walks in the second half (just one since June 13) and just five RBIs -- including only two occasions in which he has driven home a runner with a hit. Is it just a slump? Does he have more big years left? Be careful. He's been a below-average hitter for three years now.

Similarly, Varitek also has settled into his decline phase. Varitek turns 36 next April. He's not a free agent but has one year left on his deal with Boston that pays him $10 million. Varitek has hit 22 home runs the past two years after hitting 22 in 2005 alone, and he no longer hits doubles like he used to. His slugging percentage in each of the past two seasons is down more than 100 points from his big 2003 season. Most tellingly, get him out of hitter-friendly Fenway Park and he's been a poor hitter this year (.244, just 11 extra-base hits.) He, too, is fading in the second half (.229). Varitek has caught the fewest games of the three contemporaries, with 1,112.

Rodriguez and Varitek fit the standard profile of catchers as they age through their mid-30s. But how do you explain Posada? It's truly one of the most remarkable seasons by any player this year. Given his impending free agency, and the lack of quality available catchers, his timing happens to be as exquisite as his hitting.

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