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Friday's five cuts

Talk of a second wild-card team; Kielty over Drew?

Posted: Friday October 12, 2007 11:16PM; Updated: Friday October 12, 2007 11:34PM
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Taking my cuts ...

1. The idea of adding a second wild-card team in each league is gaining traction among MLB officials. The excitement of the San Diego-Colorado tiebreaker, and the extra off days built into the new TV-friendly postseason schedule, has baseball mulling the extra wild card. It's a great idea, and it would not only generate the needed disadvantage to wild-card teams (no way they should be as good as 27-21 in postseason series, as they are), but it also guarantees baseball two exciting loser-goes-home games every year -- the kind of games that attract casual viewers (see NCAA tournament). But would baseball be risking more inferior teams in the postseason? Not as much as you might think. If the format were used from 1996-2007, the extra wild-card teams would have averaged 89.1 wins in the NL and 88.8 in the AL.

2. Keep in mind, too, that an extra wild card also would present a greater risk of tiebreaker games as you travel further down the Bell curve of teams. Under a play-in format from 1996-2007, baseball would have needed to settle ties for the second wild card four times: 2007 (Mariners, Tigers), 2002 (Red Sox, Mariners), 1997 (Mets, Dodgers) and 1996 (Red Sox, White Sox, Mariners). But remember, with two or three off days already built in before the Division Series even starts, there is room in the schedule without pushing back the rest of the postseason.

3. Anybody else find it damning that the Red Sox benched a $70 million player (J.D. Drew) for a guy with two hits in the past 40 days (Bobby Kielty)? Of course, the Sox are so hot that Kielty contributed a two-run single. Don't tell me Kielty "owns" C.C. Sabathia, either. Most of his hits were from five or six years ago -- certainly not from his frigid September. Says a lot about Drew. I never heard the Sox mention "platoon player" when they signed him, but it sure looked that way Friday.

And how does Eric Wedge, in the third inning, order an intentional walk of Kielty? No manager had done that since 2005.

By the way, no pitcher ever gave up more earned runs in a postseason game than Sabathia did in ALCS Game 1 (eight). He is the 11th to give up eight earned runs in a postseason game, including only the second lefthander, joining David Wells.

4. Hey, where did all the drama go this postseason? Entering Game 2 of the NLCS, nine of the 15 postseason games were decided by four or more runs -- a 60 percent rate of such blowouts, up from 41 percent during the regular season. And here's how 2007 postseason close games stack up to the regular season:

Margin Regular Season Postseason
1 Run 30% 13%
1 or 2 Runs 45% 33%

So much for that theory about how games get tight in the postseason. We're way overdue for some dramatic finishes.

5. Everybody wants to think of the Yankees as a superpower because of their payroll, but they are so inefficient with their money that the usable portion of their payroll puts them more in line with other teams than you'd think. Look at it this way: the Yankees had $68 million in dead money in their ALDS elimination game: Jason Giambi was an $18.5 million pinch hitter, Roger Clemens was a broken down $17.69 million pitcher off the roster, Mike Mussina was an $11.5 million mop-up man, Carl Pavano was an $11 million sinkhole, and Kei Igawa was a $9.2 million instructional league player.

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