By Joe Sheehan, Baseball Prospectus

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners succeeded in acquiring Orioles ace Erik Bedard, but the price may have been too high. AP

Spring Previews   American League East: Can Red Sox fend Yanks, Jays? Central: Tigers, Indians lead the way West: Angels facing little competition National League East: Santana boosts Mets; Phillies close Central: Cubs stand tall atop weak group West: Four teams have shot at title

Where: Peoria, Arizona (Cactus League)

2007 record: 88-74 (2nd, AL West)

New guys: Erik Bedard, Miguel Cairo, Charlton Jimerson, Carlos Silva, Brad Wilkerson

Gone guys: Ben Broussard, Jose Guillen, Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Jeff Weaver

Wow, he's still here? Cha Seung Baek is in his 10th professional season, all spent with the Mariners. He's never been good enough to keep a job, healthy enough to be trade bait or bad enough to be cut loose. The trade for Bedard likely cuts off his last chance at a rotation job in Seattle.

Winter grade: D-. The Bedard trade is the wrong move at the wrong time, made because the Mariners overrated their chances coming off an inflated 88-win campaign in '07. In reality, they had .500 talent last year, and a little less than that before the Bedard deal. They're going to miss Jones down the road, and they'll have no postseason appearances to show for the deal. Silva is just a guy, an inning sponge coming off a good year, not $40 million better than Weaver. Bringing in Cairo lets them make a bad decision on Jose Lopez if they care to do so. The Wilkerson signing was an excellent low-risk move.

NRI to watch: Just because I've always liked the guy, Arthur Rhodes. Rhodes made the Mariners' Opening Day roster last year, but never pitched an inning, going down with a torn ligament in his left elbow that led to Tommy John surgery. He's back with the Mariners this year. In his last two seasons, 2005 and 2006, he struck out 91 batters and allowed just four homers in 89 innings, so there's something left in the tank. Rhodes may not be available until midseason, but looms as a reinforcement once he gets healthy.

Job battle to track: Wilkerson has a line on right field. However, his struggles mean he could end up in a fight with assorted bench players such as Jimerson and Mike Morse.

One move to make: The Mariners' decision to chase Bedard might be justifiable based on his talent, but it doesn't fit their needs. Their batting-average heavy offense could use some patience and power, and a corner outfielder or DH who brings those things would be welcomed. Signing Wilkerson is a step in that direction; the Ms need him to be their Jack Cust or Carlos Pena in '08. Using Jose Vidro at DH, while getting so little OBP from the infield, is a recipe for an offense that can't win.

The Mariners' record outpaced their performance in '07, which may have set expectations a bit too high in '08, pushing the team to invest in Silva and give up one of the game's best prospects in Jones. Adding Bedard is attractive -- he could put up amazing numbers in Safeco Field with an unbalanced schedule -- but trading Jones for two years of him, given the team around Bedard, was unwise. The Mariners just aren't good enough to contend.

Texas Rangers

Where: Surprise, Arizona (Cactus League)

2007 record: 75-87 (4th, AL West)

New guys: Milton Bradley, Ben Broussard, Josh Hamilton, Kazuo Fukumori, Eddie Guardado, Jason Jennings

Gone guys: Jerry Hairston Jr., Victor Diaz, Akinori Otsuka, Sammy Sosa, Edinson Volquez, Brad Wilkerson

Wow, he's still here? The Rangers dumped a lot of veterans over the winter, but they retained Frank Catalanotto. The veteran lefty bat doesn't have a clear line on a job, and with the Rangers needing to make decisions on guys like Jason Botts, Nelson Cruz, and David Murphy, Catalanotto is a good candidate to end up elsewhere.

Winter grade: B. The Volquez-for-Hamilton trade was a good upside play for a team that had no good center-field option. Jennings and Bradley are nice low-investment free-agent plays, as is bringing in Fukumori, the veteran Japanese reliever. One good winter isn't going to be enough for this team, however.

NRI to watch: Catcher Taylor Teagarden is in camp following a .310/.426/.586 season split between the Cal and Texas Leagues. He's not a threat to make the team. However, follow how well he throws nearly two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and whether he's able to handle regular work behind the plate. In a system lousy with catchers, he's maybe the best of the bunch if healthy.

Job battle to track: C.J. Wilson starts the season as the closer, and his effectiveness late last year aside, his hold on the job is something shy of firm. He has the mechanics and the splits of a specialist, not a closer. Guardado lurks, and teams love giving him a shot at the job. Realistically, Joaquin Benoit or even Frank Francisco are candidates to take over at midseason.

One move to make: There's not much chance that the Rangers can hang with the Angels this season or next, so GM Jon Daniels needs to continue 2007's good work by dealing Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, and even Michael Young as opportunities arise.

The Rangers will probably get out of the AL West cellar in 2008, if only because the A's will be free-falling past them on their way to 98 losses. Whether they can finish above third for the first time since 1999 depends on assembling a back end of the rotation, and how healthy a collection of injury cases can stay. A lightning strike -- like getting 1,500 PAs out of Bradley, Hamilton, and Hank Blalock while Jennings, Millwood, and Padilla all recreate their peak seasons -- could make them a contender, but in the long term, they'd be better off turning whatever good first halves they get into more prospect packages in the Mark Teixeira vein.

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