Hot Stove Preview: NL East

By Caleb Peiffer, Baseball Prospectus

Jimmy Rollins is just one of the core pieces who will return in 2009 to help the Phillies defend their World Series title. John Iacono/Sports Illustrated Hot Stove Preview   Latest Coverage Hot Stove Blog: Scoop from Jon Heyman AL Div. Previews: East | Central | West NL Div. Previews: East | Central | West Sheehan: The best bargains in this class Reiter: Where the big names might land More Truth & Rumors | Free-Agent Tracker SI Photos Big free-agent busts $100 million club

Baseball Prospectus will break down each of the majors' six divisions and analyze what's on tap this offseason. Teams are listed below according to their order of finish in 2008.

Philadelphia Phillies

What Do They Have?

Their top-shelf talent rivals that of any team in the game, with a championship infield core comprised of two former MVPs -- shortstop Jimmy Rollins and first baseman Ryan Howard -- and second baseman Chase Utley, the best of the bunch despite a lack of hardware. At just 24 years old Cole Hamels is a true ace who has vaulted himself into the elite with a Cy Young-caliber season and one of the best recent playoff performances. Brad Lidge is a dominant closer who has converted 51 straight saves since September of 2007, the third-longest streak of all time, and he is backed up by the solid righty-lefty set-up crew of Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero. Right-handers Brett Myers and Joe Blanton provide a decent supporting cast for Hamels, and they have a pair of cheap, productive outfielders in Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth.

What Do They Need?

Two starting pitchers would help to round out the back of the rotation. If Pat Burrell leaves via free agency they'll have to find a left fielder, because no internal option is feasible. Philly's top outfield prospects, Greg Golson and Michael Taylor, are both at least a year away, free-agent add-on Geoff Jenkins showed last season that he's stretched even in a platoon role and Matt Stairs will be 41 in 2009 and is probably unable to play the outfield more than sporadically.

What Are They Likely To Do?

They'll let Burrell walk. The club chose "trick" over "treat" on Halloween, proposing two years and $22 million, and since that non-starter deal Philly has shown little interest in retaining its left fielder. Re-uniting Manny Ramirez with his former hitting coach Charlie Manuel is an intriguing possibility, but the price will end up being too high. Look for the Phils to go the low-cost route, letting Jenkins be the primary placeholder in left and perhaps adding a cheap right-handed bat such as Emil Brown to back him up. It would be a shock if ancient marvel Jamie Moyer wasn't re-signed for the fourth spot in the rotation following his 16-7 season in 2008, and they will likely pick up a stop-gap veteran to fill their need for a fifth starter (Carl Pavano, Odalis Perez, Mike Hampton, Freddy Garcia and Paul Byrd are all options).

What Should They Do?

Not inking Burrell to a long-term deal is a shrewd move from an economic perspective, given that his age (32) and immobility (those dreaded "old-player skills") portend a potentially rapid decline. But Burrell has been remarkably consistent over the last four years -- hitting between 29 and 33 homers and slugging .502-.507 each year -- and the lack of a viable alternative makes taking on the risk of a multi-year offer the right move. Jenkins is two years older than Burrell, was a disappointment last season and struggles against lefties. New GM Ruben Amaro Jr. should see if he can get Burrell for only a three-year commitment by beefing up the contract's average annual value. Regarding the rotation, re-signing Moyer is a no-brainer. For the fifth spot the Phillies can probably get by letting J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton battle it out during spring training. While Kendrick and Eaton pitched their way out of the rotation last year, the 25-year-old lefty Happ combined for a 3.62 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 9.6 K/9 in 166 2/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors, and he did not allow more than two runs in any of his four big-league starts. A solid performance from Happ would allow Philly the luxury of giving top pitching prospect Carlos Carrasco at least the first half to gain seasoning at Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

New York Mets

What Do They Have?

Like the Phillies, they have a phenomenal core, consisting of the best left side of the infield in baseball (third baseman David Wright and shortstop Jose Reyes), as well as the best center fielder in the NL (Carlos Beltran), all of whom are signed through at least 2011. At first base, Carlos Delgado showed he can still be a powerful force with a .308/.392/.626 line in 372 plate appearances from June 27 onward, making the decision to pick up his $12 million option an easy one for GM Omar Minaya. In the rotation Johan Santana retains the title of best pitcher in baseball, coming off of career highs in both innings and ERA, and Mike Pelfrey has emerged as a young workhorse to complement the ace after harnessing his nasty sinker.

What Do They Need?

New York lost a major league-high seven games when leading at the start of the ninth in 2008, and the bullpen was a major contributor to the team's second straight September collapse, going 3-5 with a 6.65 ERA in the final 16 games. The Mets made more pitching changes than any other team in the majors (719) because almost all of their relievers were helpless against one side of the plate or the other (or just plain helpless). They need a couple of arms who can retire both lefties and righties, especially with closer Billy Wagner out for 2009 after Tommy John surgery. Beyond the bullpen New York could go several different ways in left field. The Mets would also love to unload Luis Castillo's albatross contract, but that's a pipe dream unless Minaya can swap it for some other bad deal. Then there are questions about the rotation -- if Oliver Perez and Pedro Martinez depart, New York will need at least one and possibly two starters, depending on whether they see Jonathon Niese as ready for primetime.

What Are They Likely To Do?

They will probably let Martinez and Perez walk, while bringing in another Scott Boras client, Derek Lowe. They'll sign a lower-profile starter to compete for the fifth spot (perhaps Bartolo Colon), package Aaron Heilman to Colorado for relief help, and sign Brian Fuentes to close, while bringing in several other lower-profile arms to compete for bullpen jobs. Expect them to stick with Ryan Church in right, a Dan Murphy/Fernando Tatis platoon in left, and Castillo at second base, while bringing in a known quantity to back up at the keystone, such as Felipe Lopez, Alex Cora, Jerry Hairston Jr. or David Eckstein.

What Should They Do?

It might be wise to re-sign Perez, who will come cheaper than Lowe or Ryan Dempster. Bringing in another starter who won't cost the team draft picks -- like Colon, Odalis Perez, Freddy Garcia or Randy Wolf -- would also have the benefit of giving Niese more time at Triple-A. Biting the bullet and selling low on Heilman for a reliever or fifth starter couldn't hurt, as he has wanted out of New York for several years and badly needs a change of scenery. They could offer Type B free agent Luis Ayala arbitration so that if he decides to depart they'll receive a draft pick in return. Inking Fuentes to a three-year deal if he'll come will bolster the pen, as would pursuing a trade for J.J. Putz or Huston Street. Using some creativity to fill out the bullpen could shift their focus to a number of intriguing minor league free agents, such as 24-year-old lefty R.J. Swindle (1.53 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 67 K in 53 innings between Double- and Triple-A last year), Kiko Calero (coming back from a rotator cuff injury), Fernando Cabrera and former Met Scott Strickland. New York should also try to keep its 40-man roster below capacity in order to add other potentially promising arms in the Rule 5 draft.

Florida Marlins

What Do They Have?

There is incredible roster flexibility here, with just three players signed for next season -- young building-blocks Hanley Ramirez at shortstop and pitcher Andrew Miller, as well as backup corner infielder Wes Helms, whom the club inexplicably handed a two-year extension following two straight sub-.300 OBP seasons. They also have a tremendous offensive second baseman in Dan Uggla, as well as the most valuable commodity in baseball: a young and extremely talented corps of starters, headlined by Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad and Miller, and a trio of right-handed power arms out of the bullpen in Matt Lindstrom, Joe Nelson and Leo Nunez.

What Do They Need?

The defense is weak, especially in the infield, where Ramirez at short, Uggla at second and Jorge Cantu at third all rate as poor fielders (although Ramirez showed significant improvement last season and may no longer need to be moved off the position). A first baseman would be nice, unless they decide to hand the second base job to newly-acquired Emilio Bonifacio and move Uggla and Cantu to third and first base, respectively. With Josh Willingham gone, they have to find a left fielder. They're short a few arms in the bullpen, especially since they're set to jettison Kevin Gregg following his ugly second half.

What Are They Likely To Do?

If you read between the lines after the acquisition of the trendiest player in baseball (the inexplicable key return on two deals in the past four months), the gutting of the Fish could continue with a deal moving either Uggla or Cantu. Such a trade would free up second base for Bonifacio while allowing minor league sluggers Dallas McPherson and Gaby Sanchez to battle for the first base job. The club also plans on promoting the jewel of the Miguel Cabrera trade, 21-year-old Cameron Maybin, to the starting job in center field following his scintillating September demitasse. That will probably mean that current center fielder Cody Ross moves to left. Beyond that Florida is likely to sign most of its remaining arbitration-eligible players, including Nolasco, Alfredo Amezaga, Matt Treanor, Jeremy Hermida, Johnson, Ross and Nelson. They'll try to trade Gregg and make 100-mph flamethrower Lindstrom the closer.

What Should They Do?

How low the Marlins' payroll needs to be next season is unclear, but if they were forced to also trade Cantu or Uggla after the dumps to the Nationals and Royals, the dwindling fan base in South Florida might revolt. They should be able to keep both. Cantu had the lowest Zone Rating among qualified third basemen last season, but the glove of the lefty-swinging McPherson -- who hit more home runs in 2008 (42) than any minor leaguer in the past three seasons -- might be even worse. A first base platoon of McPherson and the right-handed Sanchez, who brings strong defense to the infield, would create a hydra capable of hitting 30 homers for a combined cost of around $1 million. Having Maybin open the year as the starter in Miami rather than at Triple-A Albuquerque is a risk, but a defensible one given the limitations of Ross as a regular in center and the lack of other options; it will definitely upgrade the outfield defense. Dumping Gregg and replacing him with Lindstrom is the right move, and the club should offer arbitration to Type B free-agent Arthur Rhodes, who pitched very well as the lefty specialist last year. Bringing in a lefty-swinging outfielder to help out the right-handed bats of Ross and Maybin would be sensible, and perhaps Mark Kotsay would agree to rejoin his original team. With several open spots on the 40-man roster, Florida can also afford to search for another Dan Uggla-esque gem in the Rule 5 draft.