Hot Stove Preview: AL East

By Jay Jaffe, Baseball Prospectus

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Baseball Prospectus will break down each of the majors' six divisions and analyze what's on tap this offseason. Teams are listed below according to their order of finish in 2008.

Tampa Bay Rays

What Do They Have?

The Rays have an enviable surplus of starting pitching thanks to a farm system bursting at the seams with talent. With Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza and top prospect/October surprise David Price slated for rotation spots, and fellow prospects Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann capable of contributing later in 2009, they could deal either Andy Sonnanstine or arbitration-eligible Edwin Jackson, a power arm who could also shift to the bullpen to set up or close. They could also attract trade partners by tapping their wellspring of highly regarded position prospects, a group including shortstop Reid Brignac and center fielder Desmond Jennings. In addition there is room to take on salary, given that they have less than $50 million in 2009 commitments.

What Do They Need?

Strong across the board, the upstart pennant winners' most glaring flaw --exhibited during the World Series -- was a weakness against left-handed pitching. They hit just .246/.330/.396 against southpaws, with the third-lowest OPS in the league. They have vacancies in right field and designated hitter with Rocco Baldelli, Eric Hinske and Cliff Floyd hitting the market as free agents. The bullpen, though it led the majors in Reliever Expected Wins Added (WXRL), could use more depth and an alternative at closer given the age and injury history of Troy Percival, who missed the postseason.

What Are They Likely To Do?

They'll consider bringing back Baldelli, a former first-round pick for whom they have great affection. The fatigue caused by his mitochondrial disorder prevents him from being a full-time option, but he's a lefty-masher (.296/.347/.494 career) who could figure into the mix both in right field and at DH. He'd probably need a platoon-mate, but as we saw in October, the Rays don't lack for candidates, including switch-hitters Fernando Perez and Ben Zobrist and lefty Gabe Gross, though those options may not be particularly productive fits. Alternatively they may deal for a high-impact bat. Matt Holliday may be Oakland's property currently, but given their distance from contention he may be further trade fodder for a busy Billy Beane. If the Rays are willing to take on salary they could land Magglio Ordonez -- owed $18 million for 2009 plus a $3 million buyout on a 2010 option -- while forcing Detroit to pay a significant portion if they want a premium prospect in return. Via the free-agent route Orlando resident Ken Griffey Jr. is a name that will surface if he's willing to serve as a DH.

What Should They Do?

On the open market the best fit might be with Milton Bradley, who hit a searing .321/.436/.563 for the Rangers while playing more games than in any season since 2004. Bradley's numbers will likely decline outside the hitter's haven in Texas and he carries an injury risk, but slotting the 31-year-old switch-hitter primarily at DH would minimize that. As for his infamous temperament, Joe Maddon might be just the manager to connect with Bradley, making this a happy situation for all parties.

Boston Red Sox

What Do They Have?

Boston's trading chits start with a pair of inexpensive center fielders, Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury. Crisp was dealt to the Royals on Wednesday. Ellsbury, despite not having a set position, played more games than any other Boston outfielder, and while he didn't live up to his late-2007 showing he did steal 50 bases, he's just 25 and he's two years away from arbitration. With their front four rotation spots set, the Sox also have pitching prospects to dangle, starting with Clay Buchholz, second on our Top 100 Prospects list last winter but a flop in 2008 due to mechanical woes (2-9, 6.75 ERA in 15 starts). Potentially competing for the fifth starter's job could be sinkerballing swingman Justin Masterson, who pitched well in relief down the stretch, or Michael Bowden after he spent most of the year in Double-A; either could also be dealt instead of Buchholz.

What Do They Need?

Foremost is the catching situation; free agent Jason Varitek is coming off an awful age-36 season (.220/.313/.359), and agent Scott Boras is tossing around numbers like four years and $52 million, a delusional reference to the contract Jorge Posada signed last winter. Posada was coming off the best age-35 season of any catcher in baseball history, whereas Varitek... not so much. Alas, the Sox lack an heir apparent; the closest facsimile is 26-year-old George Kottaras, who hit 22 home runs at Triple-A Pawtucket but threw out just 19 percent of stolen-base attempts. The team could also use some offensive fortification to guard against the possible further decline of David Ortiz.

What Are They Likely To Do?

They'll aggressively pursue a deal to acquire one of the Rangers' young catchers, either Taylor Teagarden or Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Despite hitting .319/.396/.809 in a brief Texas stint, Teagarden is primarily known for his defense; he threw out 44 percent of potential base thieves last year. He has power and patience but hit just .211/.319/.374 last year in the minors after a much more robust 2007. On the other hand Saltalamacchia's defense is questionable, and his height (6-foot-4) suggests an eventual move from behind the plate. Acquiring either would probably hinge on a willingness to part with Buchholz or Bowden. They're also mulling the pursuit of free agent Mark Teixeira; the 29-year-old switch-hitter would fit in well with an offense that ranked second in EqA. Signing him could necessitate further moves, however, with Kevin Youkilis or Mike Lowell being traded, though Lowell might be tough to move coming off hip surgery and still being owed $24 million over the next two years. Shifting Youkilis to left field, Jason Bay to right and J.D. Drew to center, with Crisp and Ellsbury being traded is a less viable option, since it would significantly weaken a defense that ranked as the league's best according to PADE.

What Should They Do?

If they can get Teagarden for a lesser prospect than Buchholz they should pull the trigger. Offering Varitek a short-term deal (two years, $20 million) to mentor Kotteras might be politically palatable, but it would still be drastically overpaying. For that money they'd probably do better to sign 37-year-old Ivan Rodriguez, who rebounded from a down 2007 before being traded by the Tigers, didn't play much for the Yankees, and wound up hitting just .276/.319/.394. Less costly deals could be made involving the Rangers' incumbent catcher, Gerald Laird, or the Giants' Bengie Molina. Laird is well-regarded defensively but likely to regress from his .276/.329/.398 line. Molina's 2009 contract is a bargain at $6 million, he's durable, has some power and is a strong defender, and the Giants have so many needs that finding a match shouldn't be too difficult.

New York Yankees

What Do They Have?

The Yankees' top asset is money, including more than $75 million in 2008 salaries coming off the books via the free agencies of Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano and Andy Pettitte. They'll need cold, hard cash to fulfill their biggest needs, since the values of their most tradable young players, Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano, are so depressed as to make selling low inadvisable. They have young, unproven pitching to deal, starting with Ian Kennedy, who fizzled (0-4, 8.17 ERA in nine starts) following a promising late-2007 showing. Phil Hughes, who will compete for a starting slot, is likely off limits, but names like Mark Melancon, a potential future closer, and Dellin Betances, a 6-foot-8 behemoth, could surface -- not that they'll be moved.

What Do They Need?

In missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993, with an offense that slipped from an AL-best 6.0 runs per game in 2007 to a mid-pack 4.9 last year, the Yankee lineup looked increasingly outmoded. With Giambi and Abreu both free agents, they have holes at first base and right field, and it's imperative that they get younger at one position if not both. Further down the wish list is upgrading center field; Johnny Damon is in a defensive decline and Cabrera is taking a Triple-A refresher course. No less glaring is the need for starting pitching, given that 13 pitchers started for the Yankees last year, with the blueprint hinging on youngsters Joba Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy having blown up in GM Brian Cashman's face; all three got hurt, with the latter two so ineffective that they failed to garner a single win. Chamberlain and Chien-Ming Wang (also coming off injury) are assured spots, but the rest is up for grabs, and Cashman plans to overstock the larder to avoid repeating last year's Sidney Ponson-ocalypse.

What Are They Likely To Do?

They'll pursue the biggest of big game, namely CC Sabathia, who will command a nine-figure deal, but will face competition from multiple teams including the Brewers, who have a $100 million offer already on the table. Expect them to chase former Red Sox nemesis Derek Lowe as well as A.J. Burnett, who opted out of the remainder of his five-year, $55 million deal in Toronto after setting career highs in innings, wins and strikeouts. They won't net all three but they'll shoot for two and augment that by re-signing either 20-game winner Mussina (if he surprises everyone and shuns retirement) or Pettitte, who's coming off his highest ERA since 1999. As for the lineup, Teixeira is an ideal fit both offensively and defensively; he would also be the youngest regular aside from Cano and Cabrera. They'll need to break the $100 million mark to outbid the Angels, the Red Sox and others for his services. In right field they may offer the 35-year-old Abreu arbitration, a route that could net him a higher salary than he would average via the three-year deal he seeks but won't get here. They may also explore swapping Cabrera for the Brewers' Mike Cameron, but may have to sweeten the pot to get Milwaukee to bite.

What Should They Do?

If the Yanks can only go nine figures on one player it should be Teixeira, given the need for youth and the dearth of A-list first basemen in the free-agent pool. Otherwise they face unappealing solutions like Kevin Millar or an aging Giambi. Now that they've traded for Nick Swisher, who can play first base, right field or even center field, they have someone who can at least provide flexibility as the winter market evolves. As for the pitching, Burnett's legacy of injuries should make a team still smarting from the Pavano and Jaret Wright debacles think twice. Lowe, by contrast, is a reliable groundballer who's every bit as effective and much more durable, with at least 32 starts in seven straight years.

With the trade for Swisher, the Yankees are buying low on a player who offers good power and plate discipline and is coming off a year in which he suffered a 52-point drop in his batting average on balls in play despite no real change in his line drive rate. Brian Cashman suggested at his press conference that the team sees Swisher mainly as a candidate to fill the first base gap with occasional forays into the outfield corners, and that the pursuit of Teixeira is a much lower priority than signing multiple starting pitchers including Sabathia. That may simply be posturing to avoid being seen as desperate suitors in a thin market, or it may reflect very real budget constraints for the richest team in the game.