Hot Stove Preview: AL Central

By Nate Silver, Baseball Prospectus

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Baseball Prospectus will break down each of the majors' six divisions and analyze what's on tap this offseason. Teams are listed below according to their order of finish in 2008.

Chicago White Sox

What Do They Have?

After dumping Nick Swisher and letting Joe Crede and Orlando Cabrera walk out the door, the White Sox have become fairly streamlined, particularly as their minor league system -- while improved -- does not really contain any Must! Play! Now! guys. This is not necessarily a bad thing; on the contrary, it's indicative of a team that is getting better and better about understanding marginal value. But it does mean that wheeler-dealer GM Kenny Williams has somewhat fewer assets than he's used to working with. The one exception is probably relief pitching, where the Sox are fairly stacked, to the point that closer Bobby Jenks could potentially be moved.

What Do They Need?

The White Sox head into next season with essentially replacement-level alternatives at two positions, centerfield and second base, though there is room to debate that characterization at the keystone, depending on what you think of rookie Chris Getz. They could also use a fifth starter, since Jose Contreras can't be counted on for much, and since the organization seems a bit overly optimistic about the speed with which someone like Aaron Poreda will be ready to become a big-league regular.

What Are They Likely Do?

The hottest target for the South Siders appears to be free-agent second baseman Orlando Hudson, a terrific overall player who could potentially double as the club's leadoff hitter. He's a good fit for the White Sox and a good fit for Williams, though I can't help escape the feeling that O-Dog has probably peaked. It's less clear what the White Sox may do about centerfield, where the free-agent pickings are pretty slim. The hole there will probably need to be filled by trade, which likely means flipping Jenks or perhaps starting pitcher Javier Vazquez, also rumored to be on the trading block.

What Should They Do?

The improvements made by the likes of Carlos Quentin, John Danks, and Alexei Ramirez last season were very real and will tend to pay dividends for a long time, and the White Sox can be in the 87- to 90-win range again without doing anything too radical. If the basic game plan is paying slightly too much money to someone like Hudson and trading Jenks for a decent centerfielder (which might be harder than it looks, because it's something of a buyer's market for relief pitching), I think I'm on board, though I'd complement that plan by adding a veteran starter, which the White Sox seem disinclined to do. The worries I'd have are that Williams will either decide that either DeWayne Wise or Brian N. Anderson is an adequate alternative in centerfield, or that he'll move Vazquez, who is undervalued right now.

Minnesota Twins

What Do They Have?

There is enough pitching depth that the Twins can probably consider trading pitching prospects like Kevin Mulvey or a Phil Humber -- or trading one of their higher-profile major league starters to open up a slot for them.

What Do They Need?

Minnesota is in a bit of an odd situation in which they have at least marginally adequate solutions most everywhere on the diamond, but also enough below-average ones that the offense, if uncultivated, is probably going to struggle to score 829 runs again. The Twins might need to upgrade at shortstop, where Brendan Harris has a decent bat but a marginal glove (though his metrics were much improved from his disastrous defensive season in 2007 with Tampa Bay). There is also an argument to be made that Carlos Gomez, while having a terrific future, would be better served by spending 2008 in Rochester (I'll be very curious to see what PECOTA has to say about that). The Twins could also contemplate an upgrade between the right field and DH positions.

What Are They Likely To Do?

The Twins are arguably the most conservative organization in baseball, rarely making a big move unless the circumstances really compel them to. Coming off an unexpectedly good year and without facing any manifestly obvious holes, I'd expect GM Bill Smith to spend a lot of time at the craps table at the Winter Meetings in Vegas and little time at the bargaining table.

What Should They Do?

I think there's a bit of danger here of being lulled into a false sense of security. The Twins have some bright young talent, but they overachieved last year, particularly on the offensive side of the ledger (they scored 829 runs, but their peripherals pointed to only 764 equivalent runs). Moreover, the AL Central is liable to be tougher this time around after a down year across the board. In other words, this looks like an 80-85 win team to me, rather than a 85-90 win team if no further upgrades are made, albeit one with substantial upside. Corner outfield is usually among the easier places to acquire talent, and I'd package Jason Kubel together with a young starter to acquire a premium outfielder, or perhaps even open my wallet and pay for one.

Cleveland Indians

What Do They Have?

If the Indians decide that outfield prospect Matt LaPorta is ready -- and there's no reason to think that he isn't then they ought to be able to move both Ben Francisco and Franklin Gutierrez, the latter of whom might have inflated trade value in a weak market for centerfield talent. Beyond that, there isn't a whole lot of excess talent, as most of the farm system has either graduated or come into contact with the Peter Principle.

What Do They Need?

The Tribe has a glaring need at third base, where it's well past time to wave the white flag on Andy Marte. It's not been GM Mark Shapiro's style to invest heavily in his bullpens, but he's had problems there as a result. There are a lot of starting pitchers on the 40-man, but beyond Cliff Lee, they are mostly of the glass-half-empty variety.

What Are They Likely To Do?

It's hard to say, because Shapiro and assistant GM Chris Antonetti can be creative, and because some decisions are liable to be dictated by what the team thinks about the health of DH Travis Hafner (and to a lesser extent that of catcher Victor Martinez), information that we aren't privy to. It would be surprising if the Indians didn't make at least one move that involved dealing an outfielder; what's harder to know is whether owner Larry Dolan will be inclined to open his wallet.

What Should They Do?

While the Indians should be better almost by default next year, from my vantage point they will need to add a third baseman, a starting pitcher, and a decent closer if they hope to re-join baseball's elite. With a shrewd management team, they should be able to fill two of those three holes by moving the likes of Francisco and Gutierrez. The third one will probably require an increase in payroll, and it wouldn't be the worst thing for Dolan to spend a little and show Cleveland that he cares, because attendance has remained sluggish in the Forest City, which has never really gotten over the dismantling of the John Hart-built clubs that dominated the division in the second half of the 1990s.