Hot Stove Preview: NL Central

By Christina Kahrl, Baseball Prospectus

The Cubs answered one major question by bringing back starting pitcher Ryan Dempster, who went 17-6 in 2008. AP Hot Stove Preview   Latest Coverage Hot Stove Blog: Scoop from Jon Heyman AL Div. Previews: East | Central | West NL Div. Previews: East | Central | West Sheehan: The best bargains in this class Reiter: Where the big names might land More Truth & Rumors | Free-Agent Tracker SI Photos Big free-agent busts $100 million club

Baseball Prospectus will break down each of the majors' six divisions and analyze what's on tap this offseason. Teams are listed below according to their order of finish in 2008.

Chicago Cubs

What Do They Have?

There is right-handed power in the lineup, depth in the infield (especially with Ronny Cedeno qualified to start at shortstop somewhere for somebody), a surplus of thoroughly adequate fourth-starter types, a group of regulars a bit older than you might think at first blush (this winter, Rookie of the Year catcher Geovany Soto is turning 26 and shortstop Ryan Theriot will be 29, for example), and a farm system thinner than a crème brulee's crust. They also have commitments to regret, most notably to outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, who has three years and $38 million to go on a contract weighted down by a no-trade clause, making the chances that he'll be dealt relatively remote.

What Do They Need?

This is a team that lacks lineup balance. In the NLDS matchup with the Dodgers their right-handed-heavy lineup was exposed. Given that they have re-signed Ryan Dempster and kicked the tires on Jake Peavy and Randy Johnson, they're obviously looking beyond the back end of their own rotation for support for the unit's front end, which makes sense since they have reason to fear Rich Harden's fragility and Carlos Zambrano's past workloads.

What Are They Likely To Do?

Like it or loathe it, acquiring reliever Kevin Gregg is a win-now move that was also intended to trim salary commitments years into the future -- which is another suggestion that they were shifting things around to afford a big-ticket player, Dempster. That won't be the end of their activities this winter. Packaging pitchers like Jason Marquis, Chad Gaudin, Sean Marshall and/or Rich Hill might be poorly timed in terms of their trade value, but with pitching priced as sky-high as ever, plausible rotation regulars who are under contractual control for a couple of seasons to come (like those last three) should have plenty of attractiveness for other teams, however spotty their track records might be. They will deal from their pitching depth as well as that in the infield, either to acquire balance in the lineup and/or to shore up the outfield should they decide against bringing back Jim Edmonds to man center-field.

What Should They Do?

Because of so many no-trade clauses (not just Fukudome, but also with declining Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano), there are only a few spots where they can really leverage their depth and add value. That's part of the reason why the Brian Roberts trade rumors seem to simmer endlessly -- incumbent Mark DeRosa is movable, both around the diamond and in a deal out of town. But this isn't an organization gifted with a ton of low-level talent on the rise, so a swap to get the switch-hitting Roberts' last year under contract is going to cost the Cubs Cedeno plus pitching. But after re-signing Dempster instead of making a deal for Peavy, it's a deal they should make if the Orioles are willing to bite. To address the lineup balance issue and keep costs under control, pulling the Rangers into a three-way deal that sends Texas a couple of hurlers from the starting pitcher surplus, sends a third party someone from among the Rangers' quartet of catching prospects and brings the Cubs a quality lefty bat for center or right makes better sense than signing one of the old outfielders knocking around on the market.

Milwaukee Brewers

What Do They Have?

Even if CC Sabathia leaves, there's enough good stuff in-house or on the way up to leave Brewers fans relatively optimistic about the next several seasons, if not so much for 2009. With shortstop Alcides Escobar, catcher Angel Salome and slugger Mat Gamel all nearly ready, an outstanding young core in the lineup is about to become better still.

What Do They Need?

They need pitching, especially starting pitching. Despite pushing their way into the playoff picture the last two seasons the Brewers' bid on future contention is highly contingent on their ability to retain or replace at least one of their free-agent aces, Sabathia and Ben Sheets. The despair creeping into GM Doug Melvin's public pronouncements on the subject of Sabathia betray a sense of how fragile their immediate chances of keeping up with the Cubs in the division are.

What Are They Likely To Do?

They'll offer every cent they can to try and keep Sabathia, because Sheets won't fill the bill, nor will any of the other realistic alternatives on the market. Failing that, 2009 becomes a bit of a re-gearing year for the franchise. Either way they'll dangle Escobar because they already have a slick-fielding shortstop with some sock in J.J. Hardy, and offering either around would be their best tack in trade talks. Whatever the outcome on Sabathia they'll wind up taking their chances on the lead-gloved Gamel as their third baseman and await the arrival of Salome to provide an upgrade over Jason Kendall behind the plate.

What Should They Do?

Signing Kerry Wood to make the rivalry with the Cubs that much more of a grudge match would make things interesting. With the surplus of young talent in the organization, sneaking into the Peavy negotiations might be plausible, if only because the Padres need young talent. As far as additional action items, they need to make Mike Cameron a Yankee before the Bombers think better of it. If they settle for young pitching and Melky Cabrera in exchange, they're still left to deal with the question of whether and when second baseman Rickie Weeks is ever going to settle in; if they put together a package to get Robinson Cano from New York, they can answer that question by making Weeks their center fielder to replace Cameron. Whether they keep Sabathia or not they need to take a risk on a journeyman starter from among Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber to help round out a rotation otherwise stocked with question marks.

Houston Astros

What Do They Have?

The general perception is that it's a stars-and-scrubs roster that will go as far as Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee carries it, and depth is definitely an issue, but complementary players like Ty Wigginton and Kaz Matsui earn their keep. Hunter Pence was counted on to give them additional fire- and star power, but his sophomore season left a lot to be desired. Better poised to join the "star" ranks is power-curve fiend Wandy Rodriguez after an injury-shortened '08 that showed his solid '07 season wasn't a fluke.

What Do They Need?

They could use more baling wire, because staying in contention will require extra work, and GM Ed (Never Surrender) Wade was brought in to keep the Astros relevant in the standings. To do that they need a mid-rotation starter, a catcher worth starting in 90-110 games, and someone better equipped to challenge Michael Bourn for the starting job in center.

What Are They Likely To Do?

They were hoping to lock up Randy Wolf early this winter, but that didn't happen. They're stuck in terms of seeing many returns on the overdue effort to revamp the farm system anytime soon, so this team will go as far as Drayton McLane's checkbook will take them. As seen in their failure to bring Barry Bonds in to spot for Lee after the latter's season-ending injury, their ambitions (and capital) apparently have limits. There's talk that they've been shopping closer Jose Valverde (arbitration eligible) and shortstop Miguel Tejada (in the last year of his contract), but having overpaid for the pair in deals last winter they'll find the rewards from such transactions -- however much financial flexibility they might create -- a bit bitter.

What Should They Do?

Just like last year, suggesting that they tear down would be the easy, lazy, rational analysis, but however much sense it might seem to make on paper they aren't going to convert Oswalt into a package of blue-chip goodies. The problem is that the farm system has been tapped already, so there's no foundation to blast down to -- yet. If the Astros want to walk the walk as well as talk the talk about contending, deficit spending should be the order of the day. Assuming that McLane's still liquid, for this team as with few others a big package thrown toward free agent starters Derek Lowe or A.J. Burnett makes sense, as does signing a veteran center fielder like Jim Edmonds or Mark Kotsay. They should then sign Josh Bard to hold down catcher, because while he's not a star he does get on base well enough to be an important part of a fully-functioning offense; failing that, settle for Gregg Zaun. A shallow pen should encourage Wade to get in on mid-market middle men like Juan Cruz or Brandon Lyon, which becomes imperative if he flips Valverde.