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Posted: Thursday June 5, 2008 11:30AM; Updated: Thursday June 5, 2008 4:30PM

Scout's Take: Finals breakdown (cont.)

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Rajon Rondo has had his ups and downs in the postseason -- not all that surprising for a second-year point guard.
Rajon Rondo has had his ups and downs in the postseason -- not all that surprising for a second-year point guard.
Damian Strohmeyer/SI

Other Starters

Pau Gasol, Lakers. I don't have incredibly high expectations for Gasol in this series. He has made a big difference for the Lakers as an interior scorer to complement Bryant and their three-point shooters, but I think the jury's out on his ability to come through in a really high-pressure environment. On the other hand, if he plays well then the Lakers are going to be tough to beat. If he gets it going against Perkins, things could get ugly for the Celtics.

Vladimir Radmanovic, Lakers. It's very simple: He's got to make shots to be effective; otherwise, it's going to be hard to keep him on the court because of his defensive deficiencies.

Kendrick Perkins, Celtics. The concern for the Lakers is keeping Perkins away from the offensive glass, because that's how he gets four to six of his points each game. Otherwise, they don't need to worry much about the Celtics throwing it to him in the post.

Rajon Rondo, Celtics. Rondo is everything you'd expect from a young point guard: There are nights he's pretty damn good, and other nights when you're scratching your head at his decisions. The Lakers will want to force Rondo and Perkins to take as many shots as possible. The Lakers will dare Rondo to shoot jumpers, and more often than not he'll probably drive and probe and try to get the defense to loosen up, or he'll put up one of those runners or push shots he's had to make his whole life. More important than his scoring is whether he plays solidly and doesn't get out of control.

Defensively, Rondo has very long arms and he is very aggressive. But his pressure on the ball will have less impact on the Lakers, who often rely on Kobe or Odom to bring the ball up the floor.

The Benches

Celtics. The Celtics have been developing their bench all year long, and I've wondered if the strength of their bench contributed to the problems their starters had during the first two rounds of the playoffs. Because there were times when their veteran starters looked gassed in the second halves of those games, and it might have been because they weren't used to playing extended minutes during the season thanks to the extended rotation. The Celtics have a very deep bench, and they are far more experienced than the Lakers. I'm going to say that this area is a draw between the two teams, because the experience of the Celtics' reserves is going to be important under the pressure of an NBA Finals, and it neutralizes any advantage the Lakers' bench may have in ability.

The Celtics have Posey, who has a history of making big plays at both ends of the floor, and Sam Cassell, who has been hot and cold in the playoffs. But Cassell has been on this stage before and that has to be respected. It's not that I expect Farmar to be intimidated, it's just that Cassell has the advantage in experience.

Don't be surprised if Boston has to use its bench in a different way by going small with Garnett at center. The Lakers essentially have two wings playing up front in Odom and Radmanovic, and it might be hard for a traditional inside player like Leon Powe to guard out on the perimeter. You'll probably see more of P.J. Brown in this series because of his mobility and experience.

Lakers. A big key to the Lakers this season has been the improvement in young players like Walton, Farmar, Ronny Turiaf and Sasha Vujacic, along with the early season arrival of Ariza [in a trade with Orlando]. It was because of the growth of them as well as Andrew Bynum [sidelined since January by a knee injury that will force him to miss the Finals] that the Lakers were such a good team before the Gasol trade. The Lakers bring them in to not just hold the game even but sometimes to increase the lead. That group is talented, young and energetic.

The Coaches

This is a mismatch. I can't put it any other way. Not to take anything away from what Doc Rivers has accomplished, but you're talking about a Hall of Fame coach, Phil Jackson, trying to win his 10th championship against a guy who had never been out of the first round before this year. I don't expect anything innovative out of Doc in this series. Not that Phil's necessarily going to be innovative, either, but I would feel more comfortable having Phil on my sideline.

How the Celtics can win the Finals

They would do it by making the players around Kobe irrelevant. Take Gasol and Odom out of the mix and force them to have an awful series. If the Celtics take everything else away and force Kobe to do it by himself, then Boston can win the series.

That's not as farfetched as some people believe it is. Let's say the Celtics win the first two at home; that shouldn't come as any big shock. They had the best record in the league and they did make the Finals, so it's not like they're some NCAA underdog in the championship game. When the Celtics went out West [in the regular season], I didn't see them having a whole lot of trouble, and the Texas trip they had in March [when they beat San Antonio, Houston and Dallas] was pretty remarkable. I think they would need all seven games to win it. But if Pierce is aggressive, if their role players are playing within themselves, and if the Celtics are playing at their best, for sure they can win.

How the Lakers can win the Finals

They need to go into Boston and win a game right away -- either Game 1 or 2. They need to exert their will and immediately put doubt in the Celtics' mind that they're as good as the Lakers. There is no doubt that Kobe feels he is the best player with the best team; I'm not sure the Celtics feel same way about themselves. Boston has had an inferiority complex that they've shown throughout the playoffs. I don't think they feel as good about themselves as they claim. If the Lakers put the Celtics on their heels and go to L.A. with a chance of not coming back to Boston, that could be a hard thing for the Celtics. The margin of error is so much greater for the Lakers. Apart from Kobe, they could have a different guy come up big in each game. For the Celtics, they need their three stars to all play big.

Scout's Prediction

The Lakers in 6.

 
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