Lack of established stars leaves catchers in transition

Position-By-Position Rankings C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | DH/UT | SP | RP

Projected 2008 Stats Rank Player BA R HR RBI SB 1 Russell Martin .285 79 13 64 14 2 Victor Martinez .293 74 17 85 1 3 Joe Mauer .294 84 9 62 10 4 Brian McCann .282 66 19 80 3 5 Jorge Posada .287 70 17 75 3 6 Geovany Soto .272 61 19 69 1 7 Michael Napoli .233 51 15 50 6 8 J.R. Towles .266 50 10 44 9 9 Ron Paulino .268 47 10 48 5 10 Jason Varitek .254 47 12 53 2 SLEEPER Ryan Doumit .268 37 10 38 3 BUST Ivan Rodriguez .267 40 7 49 3 NOTE: Draft rankings are based on BP's Player Forecast Manager software (PFM), and assume a standard rotisserie 5x5 format with no keepers. Rankings customized to your league's rules, including dollar values for auction-based drafts, are available to Baseball Prospectus subscribers. These projections account for a player's projected injury risk and playing time, as well as contextual factors such as the strength of his teammates and his position in the batting order. PECOTA is human and its rankings are not always perfect. Well, actually it's a computer. But we have commented when we think its valuations have gone astray.

By Rany Jazayerli, BaseballProspectus.com

Catcher is a position in transition: you have the veterans raging against the dying of the light (Jorge Posada, Jason Varitek), and a whole platoon of young stars vying to become the next catching superstar. Russell Martin just turned 25; he's two months older than Joe Mauer, who's 10 months older than Brian McCann. And Geovany Soto and J.R. Towles are both Rookie of the Year candidates from behind the plate.

What the position lacks, with the notable exception of Victor Martinez, are star catchers at the peak of their careers. Which means that while there is abundant talent behind the plate, there's also abundant risk. The veterans could lose their bat speed at any time, and for the youngsters, there's a lot of potential pitfalls on the way to superstardom -- look what Mauer and McCann did in 2007 compared to '06.

There's no question that several guys on this list are going to have terrific seasons. It's just not as clear as it usually is which guys that will be.

1. Russell Martin

Martin is the rarest of finds: the five-tool, five-category catcher. He has everything you want in a fantasy player, and the sort of intangible leadership skills and character that don't count as fantasy points but make it certain that manager Joe Torre sends him out there as often as possible. Martin may actually benefit from more days off; he caught 145 games last year and wore out in September.

2. Victor Martinez

His real-life value is hurt by his defense and his frequent use as a first baseman, but for fantasy purposes all that does is keep him in the lineup more. He supplements his power with a ton of doubles, and batting behind some terrific table-setters in Cleveland, he is among the surest bets for RBIs of anyone on this list.

3. Joe Mauer

A year ago, he was coming off the first batting title in history for an AL catcher and a season that really deserved the MVP award. Now he's battling knee problems and the whispers of an eventual position change are already starting. No catcher today can match his ability to hit for average, but it's an open question whether his hitting style is conducive for anything more than gap power.

4. Brian McCann

McCann and Mauer are tied in our rankings -- down to the penny -- which is appropriate given that they both had tremendous seasons in '06 but were disappointments last year. McCann's skill set is more traditional for a catcher -- lower average, more power -- and is probably more suited for the long run than Mauer, whose contact approach relies on speed that he's likely to lose over time. Mauer's the safer bet for '08, but McCann has the higher upside.

5. Jorge Posada

If he can duplicate his '07 season, I'll eat my shoe. Posada hit .338 after never hitting better than .287 before -- that won't happen again. But aside from his batting average, the rest of Posada's performance last year was in line with his career norms, and as catchers go Posada is about as consistent as they come. Backing up Joe Girardi for all those years means his knees are fresh for a 36-year-old.

6. Geovany Soto

Few players in organized baseball improved as much as Soto did last season. Coming into '07 his career high in batting average was .272, and he had never reached double digits in home runs. He then hit .353 with 24 homers in the Pacific Coast League, and .389 with pop for the Cubs in September. PECOTA says his breakthrough is for real. He's a legitimate Rookie of the Year contender and the last of the elite catchers available.

7. Michael Napoli

A poor man's Mickey Tettleton, Napoli is the kind of guy who could hit 30 home runs if he played full-time, only his walks don't help you and his batting average will actively hurt you. But he's officially the man behind the plate for the Angels now, and his value should rise accordingly.

8. J.R. Towles

Towles is sort of the poor man's Soto. Like Soto he rose from relative obscurity last season and had a terrific cup of coffee in the majors. Towles is not as ready as Soto is (he started last season in A-ball) and it may take a constitutional amendment to get Brad Ausmus out of the starting lineup, so don't go overboard with expectations.

9. Ron Paulino

PECOTA likes Paulino's bat and track record, but only the Pirates know whether Paulino will beat out Ryan Doumit (see below) for the first-string catcher's job. Paulino should hit when he plays, but until it's clear how much he'll play, tread carefully.

10. Jason Varitek

Varitek showed last season that his bat's not dead yet. The days when he could give you 20 homers and help in batting average are gone, but he has the twin benefits of lot of guaranteed playing time -- Doug Mirabelli is still his backup -- and teammates that have his back when he starts debating the issues of scoring and driving in runs.

Sleeper: Ryan Doumit

Doumit was a top prospect in the minors, and after struggling in his sophomore season quietly had a nice rebound in '07. The prediction is based on Doumit getting only 35 percent of the playing time behind the plate and another 10 percent in the outfield. The potential is there for him to earn an everyday position, and the talent is there for him to take advantage of it.

Bust: Ivan Rodriguez

In major league history, only Carlton Fisk and Bob Boone have caught more games than Rodriguez. He's only 36, but his knees are closer to 50. All that squatting has to catch up to him sometime, and his bat has been in a slow decline for three years. Someone will overpay for the RBI opportunities in a loaded Tigers lineup -- don't let that someone be you.

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