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Fantasy Preview: Shortstop

Big dropoff after trinity of Reyes, Ramirez, Rollins

Posted: Tuesday March 18, 2008 11:43AM; Updated: Monday March 24, 2008 12:59PM
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Position-By-Position Rankings
C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | DH/UT | SP | RP
Projected 2008 Stats
Rank Player BA R HR RBI SB
1 Jose Reyes .290 113 14 73 62
2 Hanley Ramirez .307 121 22 88 41
3 Jimmy Rollins .291 108 21 78 30
4 Troy Tulowitzki .292 95 21 91 10
5 Rafael Furcal .281 90 8 54 26
6 Carlos Guillen .293 87 17 80 12
7 Derek Jeter .297 97 9 71 14
8 Felipe Lopez .271 81 10 54 21
9 Khalil Greene .254 71 22 83 6
10 Miguel Tejada .296 78 17 82 5
SLEEPER
Jeff Keppinger .305 51 5 39 3
BUST
David Eckstein .275 66 3 47 7
NOTE: Draft rankings are based on BP's Player Forecast Manager software (PFM), and assume a standard rotisserie 5x5 format with no keepers. Rankings customized to your league's rules, including dollar values for auction-based drafts, are available to Baseball Prospectus subscribers.

These projections account for a player's projected injury risk and playing time, as well as contextual factors such as the strength of his teammates and his position in the batting order. PECOTA is human and its rankings are not always perfect. Well, actually it's a computer. But we have commented when we think its valuations have gone astray.
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By Rany Jazayerli, BaseballProspectus.com

If you remember the trinity in the American League of a decade ago, you'll love the updated version, now racking up fantasy points in the National League East. Getting one of them is critical, as the value at the position drops off dramatically once No. 3 goes off the board.

1. Jose Reyes

Nobody runs like Reyes. His 62 projected steals are 21 more than the next guy.who happens to also be the guy below him on this list. He's still growing his skills at the plate, too.

2. Hanley Ramirez

Ramirez does everything better than Reyes except steal bases (and play defense, not a fantasy issue). His power upside makes him a 40/40 threat.

3. Jimmy Rollins

The MVP would be even more V if he got on base a bit more. His runs-scored totals are actually understated given how often he puts himself in scoring position with steals and extra-base hits and the lineup behind him. Still, the power and speed make him a fantasy stud.

4. Troy Tulowitzki

There's a big dropoff here, as Tulowitzki provides much less speed and somewhat fewer runs and RBIs than Rollins. He does, however, play at Coors Field, which remains a great spot for hitters.

5. Rafael Furcal

The reliable source of speed and pop became an unreliable slap hitter last year. Just 30, it's likely that he'll get some of the power back, and hitting in front the Dodgers' good young bats will help his runs.

6. Carlos Guillen

Formerly fragile, Guillen has played in 150 games two years in a row. He'll play first base in '08 but remain a shortstop, and a good one, for fantasy purposes.

7. Derek Jeter

Lost in all the new trinity hype is that one of original trio is still going strong. Jeter's batting average and runs scored are his strong points, and he's a threat to steal 20 bags.

8. Felipe Lopez

That projection assumes playing time that may not be there. Cristian Guzman has the better glove and is having the better spring at the plate, so Lopez may be stuck in a waiting-for-injury role.

9. Khalil Greene

Dead-pull hitter Greene swings a lot and misses a lot, and when he makes contact he hits the ball hard. His offensive mix is atypical at shortstop, and his good glove doesn't help you much.

10. Miguel Tejada

Tejada has lost two steps in the field and one at the plate. Moving to Minute Maid Park should mask the latter problem, however, as the Crawford Boxes fit his swing nicely.

Sleeper: Jeff Keppinger, Reds

An injury to Alex Gonzalez creates an opportunity for this contact-hitting singles machine. Atop the Reds lineup, Keppinger could score a ton of runs.

Bust: David Eckstein

Eckstein was Keppinger seven years ago. Now, he's aging, fragile and has lost most of his speed.

To get more in-depth information on the upcoming season, pick up a copy of the best selling baseball annual, Baseball Prospectus, by clicking here.

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