NFL preseason injury assessments (cont.)

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Jonathan Stewart (Red, 750 Rush, 100 Rec, 9 TD)

Stewart went to Oregon, not Oregon State, but get ready for the Steven Jackson comparisons. Same size, same body, same speed score -- all he needs is dreads. The only downside on this possible rookie of the year is that he'll share carries with DeAngelo Williams, taking on the DeShaun Foster role in the Panthers platoon, and the toe injury he suffered through. He ran a 4.5 at the Combine before getting it fixed, and coming off a big senior campaign, no one really seems too worried about it. He'll be ready for camp and could be one of those second RB picks that makes a team into a monster. Talk up the toe surgery before the draft and see if you can get him to fall to you. He's not going to put up huge numbers, but very solid ones.

Kevin Smith (Red, 650 Rush, 250 Rec, 8 TD)

The Rule of 370 doesn't really have a college component. So what does X number of carries, even at a mid-major do to a guy? In Smith's case, it gets him noticed and drafted into a situation where he's going to have a pretty good chance to get the starting job in a bad offense. Jim Colletto is going to shift to a more run-focused attack despite having the personnel for Mike Martz's aerial offense. I'm still very worried about whether 450 carries in college translates into 370 or so in the NFL. Given that he's going to be the feature back on Day 1 for the Lions, that's a big problem. Smith's personality has been compared to Clinton Portis. Let's hope he doesn't share the injury problems.

Deuce McAllister (Red, 200 Rush, 100 Rec, 3 TD)

McAllister has done this before. A couple years ago, McAllister came back from an ACL repair and was a linear runner for the first half of the season. It worked well, since Reggie Bush was alongside, doing the outside runs and cutback traps. Bush is still there, but after Bush proved he's not a feature back, McAllister will gladly take the "Mr. Inside" job on again. It's not coincidence that the Saints were great with both in '06 and terrible without McAllister when he went down early in '07. He's going to crush these projections and should likely approximate his '06 season numbers, which were 1,100 Rush, 100 Rec, and 10 TD.) It's good to know just how down the downside is however.

Philip Rivers (Red, 3,700 Pass, 26 TD +1 Rush)

Secret surgery got him to the AFC Championship game, but Rivers has more than a simple ACL tear to deal with. No, he's got the full boat, an O'Donaghue's Triad that can be the difference between a full comeback and one that takes longer. In football terms, it's the difference between Carson Palmer and Daunte Culpepper. Rivers is likely somewhere in between. I'd expect some problems at the start of the season. If you're near the Chargers training camp, the thing I'd be looking for is whether Rivers is pushing off his back foot or whether he's still "slinging" off his front foot the way he did during the playoffs. Sure, it can work, but it's not nearly as strong or as accurate. With all the offensive weapons hurting, you might want to stay away from the Chargers during the first four games.

Marvin Harrison (Red, 750 Rec, 5 TD)

I don't know either. Harrison will end up with an ADP anywhere from the second round to undrafted, with much of that variation based on the date of the draft. If you've got that kind of pull, have your draft as late as possible. Then again, the uncertainty about Harrison could make him a steal in early drafts if you guess right and he comes back from knee surgery on both sides and the mysterious problem he had last year. My sources tell me it was a stress fracture that came after a meniscal tear, not unlike what Tiger Woods had at the U.S. Open. Of course, Woods doesn't have heat-seeking safeties taking him down after a seven iron shot. We won't know a thing before training camp and even then, I'm not sure that he's not going to mirror Art Monk at similar age.