NFL preseason injury assessments

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By Will Carroll, Special for SI.com

As players across the country start digging into the data and looking at the latest expert's draft advice, there's one factor that's going to keep coming up: injuries. Sure, I'm biased since this is my beat, but while Vince Lombardi famously said that football was a collision sport, fantasy football is about collision avoidance. A top pick and good research will help you win the league, but what usually wins is having a team that isn't forced to scramble for an injury replacement.

This season, looking through SI's top 100-rated players, we're confronted with more injury risk than ever. All five of the top five players have some injury risk or are rehabbing from injury. That's not some fluke -- seven of the top 10 have the same level of danger, 12 of the top 25. There's some parallel between workload and injury risk, axiomatic since the best players get the most touches.

While we should all know the Rule of 370 by now, but beyond the easy ones, let's take a look at which top picks you need to risk adjust before drafting. I'm including some projections, using the outstanding stats from Pro Football Prospectus 2008, which give you an idea on how much production you can expect from a player and how risky they are, using Aaron Schatz's red/yellow/green risk ratings.

LaDainian Tomlinson (Green, 1,400 rushing yards, 400 receiving yards, 22 TD)

A lot of people forget that Tomlinson ended his season standing on the sidelines questioning his quarterback while LDT was the one with the less significant knee injury. Less significant doesn't mean insignificant by any stretch and LDT's MCL problem is one that could push him down the draft board. If you have the first pick, don't let that happen. Tomlinson showed no lateral deficits in his limited work in minicamp and while he won't get much work in preseason games, that's normal for him. RBs come back from MCLs without much problem, and there's little reason to think that it will be different for the most consistent back in the NFL. The one real risk is that Tomlinson didn't appear to understand how to adjust his game and play at less than 100 percent. That could remain an issue going forward. On a final note, if Philip Rivers has early season problems with his own comeback, Norv Turner will lean more on Tomlinson and Darren Sproles.

Adrian Peterson (Yellow, 1,500 Rush, 300 Rec, 14 TD)

This time last year, we were all wondering if Peterson could stay healthy enough to be a good platoon back in the NFL. That answer: yes. At least for one year. One great year and a bunch of highlights later, Peterson is no less risky. In fact, he could be more risky having pushed his draft stock so high. All those college injuries, his upright running style, aggressive nature and the torn LCL that kept his gaudy rookie campaign from being historic can't be hidden behind all the magazine covers he's getting. Yes, he's that good, but yes, he's that risky. He almost has to be paired with Chester Taylor again this year.

Brian Westbrook (Green, 1,400 Rush, 500 Rec, 16 TD)

Westbrook has gone from a guy who can't stay healthy to the MVP candidate that no one knows. Just a couple years ago, we had a pretty vicious debate about who to take from Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson, but in that season and since, you'd have only rather had one of those guys over Westbrook. His combination of skills not only makes him valuable, but has helped keep him healthy. Like Barry Sanders, he doesn't take a lot of big hits, but it seems that unlike the preternatural shiftiness of Sanders, Westbrook figured it out along the way. The knees are going to bother him, but the Eagles have done an amazing job maintaining Westbrook and telling Andy Reid when Westbrook needs a week off.

Joseph Addai (Green, 1,250 Rush, 400 Rec, 9 TD)

Sure, Dominic Rhodes is back to back him up and maybe steal another Super Bowl MVP trophy from him, but Addai is now the man in the Colts offense. Colts RBs get as much help from the offensive line as Peyton Manning does, but it's seldom recognized. Some have questioned whether it's the system or Manning's presence, but feel free to let people keep asking the question as you take Addai's solid totals and points. Addai did show that he might have a ceiling on his carries, getting very banged up as the season went on with neck, back and shoulder issues, though none should be considered major. If the Colts decided to run more in close, Addai could put up even bigger totals. You don't need Rhodes as a pairing here, which can help your mid-round draft strategy.

Steven Jackson (Yellow, 1,250 Rush, 500 Rec, 10 TD)

If you designed a RB, he'd likely end up looking a lot like Jackson. Maybe not the hair, but the speed, power, chiseled body, big legs and receiving ability make him the guy that ought to be the prototype. He missed some time last season to a lower back injury that was called back spasms, but wasn't treated that way. Anything disc related should be a huge red flag, but there's no evidence that it was more, just speculation. His workload should go up in the new Al Saunders offense, and having Brian Leonard opening up some holes at FB might help both. Did I mention it was his contract year? Move him up and hope for the best with his back.

Peyton Manning (Green, 4,350 passing yards, 38 TD passes +1 rushing TD)

For a guy who lives in the film room anyway, missing training camp raises some interesting possibilities. Will he spend the extra time breaking down the weaknesses in opposing secondaries or will he lose timing with his receivers? Will Jim Sorgi surprise people with solid play in the preseason, making Tony Dungy more conservative in his final season, pulling Manning from late games and costing some yardage? Will the question marks surrounding Marvin Harrison cost Manning some value the way it did last season or will Anthony Gonzalez prove himself to be another smart pick by Bill Polian? Surgery to remove the prepatellar bursa is about as minor as surgery on a franchise QB can be. His value should hold within a narrow margin and I'd expect that he'll continue his consecutive games streak.