
AFC fantasy sleepers, busts |
Before the arrival of the Internet, a savvy fantasy football league owner could find sleeper picks by reading several pre-season football magazines or even watching a lot of ESPN SportsCenter. Well folks, those days are over. There are no more sleepers because even the most obscure prospect is now overhyped. Still, you know that one surprise is going to come out of every NFL team this year and you also know that one top player from each team is going to crap out. So with that in mind, here is a list of the AFC's top sleeper picks and top busts from each team: AFC EastBuffalo Bills Sleeper: WR James Hardy: Hardy has missed the last couple of pre-season games with a hamstring injury and may begin the season in a rotation with Josh Reed for the starting split end job. That's not exactly what folks expected when the Bills grabbed him in the second round of this year's draft. As a result, he's dropped to 159th in our latest National Fantasy Football Championship Average Draft Position rankings of pay leagues, making him a solid bargain. When his hammy is finally healed, you'll see a dynamic 6-4, 220-pound receiver in Hardy. Bust: QB Trent Edwards: Unfortunately for Hardy and the rest of the Bills' wideouts, the QB play will be troublesome all year long. This second-year QB out of Stanford struggled at times last year when he took over the starting job and this year he's missed the last couple of pre-season games with a quadriceps injury. He wasn't a top fantasy QB to begin with, but his troubles could affect the likes of Hardy, WR Lee Evans and even RB Marshawn Lynch. Miami Dolphins Sleeper: WR Ted Ginn Jr.: The 2007 first-round pick out of Ohio State had a nice finish to his rookie season, catching 26 passes in his last seven games and he's been the best receiving option for the Dolphins this pre-season. He's still more electric on punt returns than as a wideout, but he provides good upside as your fourth wide receiver. He needs help from QB Chad Pennington and his ADP has inched up to 102 in our preseason drafts, but he could easily finish with solid numbers by the end of '08. Bust: RB Ronnie Brown: Something isn't right in south Florida when the coaches keep giving Ricky Williams more playing time than their most talented back. Brown is still a top-50 fantasy pick these days, but the latest thumb injury on top of last year's knee injury and the availability of Williams is just too much for me. There are just too many bad vibes here to take Brown over any reliable WR at that point in the draft. Stay away unless he falls so far on Draft Day that you just can't resist because this has platoon written all over it. New England Patriots Sleeper: WR Jabar Gaffney: With teams trying to double-team Randy Moss and trying to control Wes Welker, it's easy to forget about the other starting wideout in this offense. Gaffney will start opposite Moss and has the ability to put up solid WR4 numbers. His ADP is a low 132, so getting a starter in Point Per Reception leagues like this in the second half of the draft is a major steal in my opinion. Grab him if you can. Bust: TE Ben Watson: Too many people fall in love with the potential that Watson brings, but he's just too injury-prone to count on each year in fantasy football. He's coming off ankle surgery and may avoid the PUP list, but he was limited to 12 games last year and could have trouble topping that number this year. Watson set a career high with six TD catches last year, but it would be foolish to expect more than that this year. New York Jets Sleeper: TE Dustin Keller: It's tough for first year tight ends to put up big numbers as Greg Olsen proved last year and Marcedes Lewis proved the year before him. Keller won't even play fulltime as Chris Baker is the starter, but this 6-4, 240-pounder is going to get most of the looks in passing situations from the slot position and the Jets have already proven they like to use him in the Red Zone. He's a Dallas Clark-type tight end who will be good soon and even as early as this year. Bust: Laveranues Coles: Coles is banged up again and he's really hitting the wall physically. He's a solid gamer who plays through pain, but he's missed all three pre-season games thus far and really hasn't practiced with Brett Favre much. This latest leg injury could linger into the regular season and without reps with Favre this spells trouble. His ADP is 66, which is just too high for what I've seen so far this pre-season. AFC NorthBaltimore Ravens Sleeper: RB Ray Rice: With Willis McGahee coming off knee surgery, Rice has gotten a lot of reps this training camp and could actually open the season as the starter. The rookie out of Rutgers is exciting and he showed good glimpses of his potential when he totaled 94 yards in the second pre-season game, but there's no doubt he is short for an NFL back. I can't see him carrying the offensive load full-time, but his stock is on the rise now and the Ravens are ready to use him early and often. His ADP is 100, so don't wait long if you want him. Bust: WR Mark Clayton: After two solid seasons, Clayton was a bust last year and he's back on the bust list again. Why? Because some owners are still grabbing him based on his '06 season and just hoping that he returns to that level. Sorry, it's not going to happen. He had 48 catches and 0 TDs last year and with inept QB play expected again, his '08 numbers won't be much better than last year's final numbers. Stay away. Cincinnati Bengals Sleeper: RB Chris Perry: Because of persistent injuries, Perry has played in only 22 games and carried the ball only 73 times during his first three NFL seasons. But the Bengals feel he can be a solid starting back and he has passed Kenny Watson on the depth chart. With Rudi Johnson battling a hamstring injury, this could be the year that Perry emerges as an every-down back. If he can stay healthy, that is. He's worth the gamble, that's for sure. Bust: RB Rudi Johnson: Before last year, there were few backs more dependable than Rudi Johnson. But a hamstring injury suffered in Week 3 killed his season and now he's battling another hamstring injury this pre-season. With Perry coming on strong, it's very possible that Rudi will be a platoon player or a reserve back. Don't take the gamble that it's 2006 all over again because time has moved on without him. Cleveland Browns Sleeper: WR Donte Stallworth: Stallworth was in an ideal situation in New England last year, but finished with only three TD receptions. Now he may be in an even better situation as he's the No. 2 wideout opposite Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow. He has battled a hamstring injury during training camp, but if he can stay healthy he could be a great bustout player in this offense. With an ADP of 106, there's still value to be had there. Bust: RB Jamal Lewis: It's hard to argue with Lewis's production last year as he surprised everyone during his first season in Cleveland by rushing for 1,304 yards and 9 TDs. He's still in position to put up solid numbers again this year, but his ADP is now 29 and that's just too high for a 29-year-old back with as much mileage as Lewis has on him. There will be few busts in this offense, but this battered back is my first candidate on this team. ![]() ![]()
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