Under the knife -- wrap |
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Let's get right to this, but be sure to read down -- what I'd normally put in the intro fit better into the flow of the column, so powered by my Tampa Bay Rays event tonight as they try to secure their first over .500 season -- as I predicted! -- for the first time in team history, on to the injuries: (Note: DXL is "Days eXpected Lost", or how many days I am estimating the player will lose. The dollar figure after the slash is "Injury Cost," an estimation of how much value is lost, using the player's PECOTA-calculated value divided by 180, then multiplied by the DXL. It's calculated in millions of U.S. dollars.): Josh Beckett 15 DXL/$1.3mBeckett made it through his bullpen session, but won't make it to his scheduled Friday start, and that has Boston in panic mode. With all the depth the team had to start the season, they've needed every bit of it and more to make it through. Beckett is headed to see Jim Andrews and while that's seldom a good sign, we've often seen that in many cases, pitchers go for the confidence they get when Andrews tells them, in essence, that they're OK. The team insists this is precautionary and there's no sign that this is anything but a second opinion. There are no new symptoms, no exacerbation, just a continued problem in an arm that Boston and Beckett need. Joba Chamberlain 30 DXL/$2.5mThe young Yankee threw a 35-pitch bullpen session, using all of his pitches, and came away reporting no trouble. It's unclear what the next step is after another throwing session scheduled for Thursday, but speculation is that he would shift to the pen to continue increasing his pitches to the point that he could shift back to the rotation. The key there is "could" -- and much of Chamberlain's usage could be predicated on the standings. The key is making sure that Chamberlain is healthy while also keeping his innings in check. The Yankees have done a pretty good job of both, even with the minor rotator cuff problem. Of course, he's also going to need to get a bit more serious about his conditioning still. John Maine 30 DXL/$1.1mMaine did everything he could to pitch through the pain in his shoulder, but despite some desperate efforts, he simply couldn't do it and be effective. Maine had a cortisone shot to try to calm down the area affected by the spur, not picking up a ball until he made his start, but his control was suffering. The Mets aren't counting him out completely, but putting him on the DL at this stage of the season shows just how bad things have gotten. The emergence of Mike Pelfrey and Brian Stokes allowed this move to be possible, but keeping Pedro Martinez healthy now becomes even more crucial if the Mets hope to play in October, not to mention that Pelfrey is nearing the Verducci Effect (the mark first noted by SI's Tom Verducci, showing that 30-inning increases predict problems the following year.) Speaking of the Verducci Effect, who's headed to that threshhold? BP's stats crew pulled out the starting pitchers who have crossed or are on pace for that level:
J.D. Drew 30 DXL/$1.1mThe trade for Mark Kotsay, a guy who's had his own battles with his back, tells us a lot about Drew. Jason Lane could have filled in for a short term, but Kotsay is a guy who, if healthy, could handle a larger role. With Drew still unable to even walk without pain, it's looking less and less like this will be a shor-term issue. While the Sox continue to say this is muscular in nature and not related to the herniated disc found in Drew's lower back, the fact is that Drew hasn't found any relief with rest and treatment speaks to the severity of the problem. Worse, it seems that the two conditions are causing different, but interrelated, symptoms, making it tougher to know what's working or not working. Drew was pushed to the DL on Tuesday and no one is quite sure when he'll be back, no pun intended. ![]() ![]()
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