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Posted: Friday August 29, 2008 9:42AM; Updated: Friday August 29, 2008 12:02PM

Under the knife -- wrap

Story Highlights
  • Increased workload for starters often foretells of struggles next season
  • Josh Beckett may be hoping for confidence more than cure from doctor visit
  • Return of Yankees' Joba Chamberlain still a work in progress
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Josh Beckett's visit to Dr. James Andrews may have Red Sox fans more nervous than they need to be about his immediate future.
Josh Beckett's visit to Dr. James Andrews may have Red Sox fans more nervous than they need to be about his immediate future.
Jonathan Moore/Getty Images

By Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus, Special to SI.com

Let's get right to this, but be sure to read down -- what I'd normally put in the intro fit better into the flow of the column, so powered by my Tampa Bay Rays event tonight as they try to secure their first over .500 season -- as I predicted! -- for the first time in team history, on to the injuries:

(Note: DXL is "Days eXpected Lost", or how many days I am estimating the player will lose. The dollar figure after the slash is "Injury Cost," an estimation of how much value is lost, using the player's PECOTA-calculated value divided by 180, then multiplied by the DXL. It's calculated in millions of U.S. dollars.):

Josh Beckett 15 DXL/$1.3m

Beckett made it through his bullpen session, but won't make it to his scheduled Friday start, and that has Boston in panic mode. With all the depth the team had to start the season, they've needed every bit of it and more to make it through. Beckett is headed to see Jim Andrews and while that's seldom a good sign, we've often seen that in many cases, pitchers go for the confidence they get when Andrews tells them, in essence, that they're OK. The team insists this is precautionary and there's no sign that this is anything but a second opinion. There are no new symptoms, no exacerbation, just a continued problem in an arm that Boston and Beckett need.

Joba Chamberlain 30 DXL/$2.5m

The young Yankee threw a 35-pitch bullpen session, using all of his pitches, and came away reporting no trouble. It's unclear what the next step is after another throwing session scheduled for Thursday, but speculation is that he would shift to the pen to continue increasing his pitches to the point that he could shift back to the rotation. The key there is "could" -- and much of Chamberlain's usage could be predicated on the standings. The key is making sure that Chamberlain is healthy while also keeping his innings in check. The Yankees have done a pretty good job of both, even with the minor rotator cuff problem. Of course, he's also going to need to get a bit more serious about his conditioning still.

John Maine 30 DXL/$1.1m

Maine did everything he could to pitch through the pain in his shoulder, but despite some desperate efforts, he simply couldn't do it and be effective. Maine had a cortisone shot to try to calm down the area affected by the spur, not picking up a ball until he made his start, but his control was suffering. The Mets aren't counting him out completely, but putting him on the DL at this stage of the season shows just how bad things have gotten. The emergence of Mike Pelfrey and Brian Stokes allowed this move to be possible, but keeping Pedro Martinez healthy now becomes even more crucial if the Mets hope to play in October, not to mention that Pelfrey is nearing the Verducci Effect (the mark first noted by SI's Tom Verducci, showing that 30-inning increases predict problems the following year.)

Speaking of the Verducci Effect, who's headed to that threshhold? BP's stats crew pulled out the starting pitchers who have crossed or are on pace for that level:

The Veducci Effect
Increases in IP for key starters
2008 2007 Age Pitcher
185.3 146.3 24 Tim Lincecum
158.7 123.7 25 Andrew Sonnanstine
169.3 115.3 24 Zack Greinke
164.0 82 24 Ubaldo Jimenez
158.0 77.7 24 Matt Garza
163.0 72.7 24 Mike Pelfrey
127.7 61.7 24 Kevin Slowey
87.7 55.3 25 Jeremy Sowers
135.0 52 25 Jonathan Sanchez
94.3 50.7 23 Jo-Jo Reyes
148.0 34.7 23 John Lannan
108.7 32.3 24 Garrett Olson
157.7 29 24 Edinson Volquez
131.7 28.7 25 Glen Perkins
148.7 26.3 25 Manny Parra

J.D. Drew 30 DXL/$1.1m

The trade for Mark Kotsay, a guy who's had his own battles with his back, tells us a lot about Drew. Jason Lane could have filled in for a short term, but Kotsay is a guy who, if healthy, could handle a larger role. With Drew still unable to even walk without pain, it's looking less and less like this will be a shor-term issue. While the Sox continue to say this is muscular in nature and not related to the herniated disc found in Drew's lower back, the fact is that Drew hasn't found any relief with rest and treatment speaks to the severity of the problem. Worse, it seems that the two conditions are causing different, but interrelated, symptoms, making it tougher to know what's working or not working. Drew was pushed to the DL on Tuesday and no one is quite sure when he'll be back, no pun intended.

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