Fantasy Clicks: Week 13 Revelations

Denver 34, N.Y. Jets 17

I'm usually the first person to own up to my missteps, predictions-wise, that comprise the midweek Fantasy Clicks. But I was totally in the right for suggesting you bench Jay Cutler on Sunday -- even though the Broncos QB defied the odds and threw for 357 yards and two touchdowns on the water-logged Meadowlands turf. The NFL may possess the greatest collection of arms in pro sports -- at least those who don't belong to the Tampa Bay Rays (that's a baseball team, for the millions who didn't watch the World Series) -- but very few have the chutzpah to throw against-the-grain passes, 25 yards downfield, while scrambling for one's life in a monsoon (like Cutler apparently has). Here's another reason why Cutler should have been benched: A pair of tight ends (Denver's Tony Scheffler and New York's Dustin Keller) were the respective team leaders in receiving yards, a common occurrence amid heavy rains. Bottom line: Cutler, rain or shine, is a freak and an inconsistent one at that, which explains why he should throw for 300 yards and three TDs in Week 14 against Kansas City, amidst perfect Mile High weather ... but instead will likely post the kind of mediocre numbers fit for a rainstorm (see Brett Favre).

As for Favre, yes, he threw for 247 yards and zero scores on Sunday, but I'm willing to give him a relatively free pass for the effort. After all, it's not his fault the Denver defense has no gameplan for combatting trick running plays or ceases to keep playing through the whistle -- two principal reasons why Thomas Jones finished the day with 138 rushing yards and two touchdowns. But at the same time, he shouldn't be viewed as a must-start during the fantasy playoff weeks -- even though he has good road matchups in Weeks 14 (at San Francisco) and 16 (at Seattle). One last note about the Jets: Dustin Keller (7 catches, 77 yards) deserves to be your TE1 ... unless Tony Gonzalez sits atop the depth chart. He's that good!

Carolina 35, Green Bay 31

If ever there was a time to officially jump on the DeAngelo Williams Bandwagon Tour ... Sunday was that day. Against the Pack, Williams scored four 1-yard touchdowns (which has to be an NFL record), while vulturing potential scores from Steve Smith (4 catches, 105 yards) and rookie RB Jonathan Stewart (61 total yards), who, by all accounts, should have bumped DeAngelo from the top slot long ago. And yet, Williams continues to dominate the fantasy landscape -- although he'll be hard-pressed to repeat his 4-TD feat next week against Tampa Bay. On the QB front, leave it to Jake Delhomme (177 yards, 0 TDs) to lead a team to 35 points on the road -- without collecting one passing TD for his résumé. Bummer!

Regarding the Packers ... from a fantasy perspective, you've got to love Aaron Rodgers (324 total yards, 3 TDs) for his role in the club's furious comeback. From a real-life view, though, what was he thinking in that up-for-grabs interception with under two minutes left in regulation -- when Green Bay had two timeouts left? As for the pass-catchers, Greg Jennings (8 catches, 91 yards, 1 TD), Donald Driver (5 catches, 83 yards, 1 TD) and tight end Donald Lee (4 catches, 37 yards, 1 TD) were golden against the Panthers; and the trio has a better-than-average shot at duplicating -- or improving upon -- their numbers in Week 14 against Houston. I expect Ryan Grant (only 39 yards) to have a great game as well, assuming his, ahem, bruised hand is up to the task.

Kansas City 20, Oakland 13

Larry Johnson may be a dinosaur in today's NFL (at a mere 29 years old) -- meaning he'll only bring rushing glory and very, very little production in the passing game ... but he's MY dinosaur. That is why I refuse to jump ship on one of the most enigmatic talents in fantasyland history -- and neither should you, especially when he's facing the Raiders. On Sunday, under a clear blue California sky, LJ toted the rock 24 times for 92 yards and one touchdown. And next week, rain or shine, I expect a greater output against the Broncos, you know, the team he ambushed for 198 yards and two scores wayyyyyy back in September. As for the other Chiefs ... I'm disappointed but hardly disenchanted with QB Tyler Thigpen (162 yards, 0 TDs) and WR Dwayne Bowe (2 catches, 27 yards); and Tony Gonzalez (8 catches, 110 yards) just keeps building that Hall of Fame tote board. All told, the trio should roll up big, big numbers in the next three weeks (Denver, San Diego, Miami). Cha-ching!

Regarding the Raiders ... I'm happy to see RB Justin Fargas (85 total yards, 1 TD) finally register his first score of the season, and it's great to see TE Zach Miller (5 catches, 79 yards) establish himself as JaMarcus Russell's go-to guy. But let's be honest here: If Oakland should ever amount to anything more than a laughingstock in the foreseeable future, Darren McFadden (63 total yards) has to tally more than 10 measly touches. Hmmmm, this looks like a classic case of a bad team overthinking its strategy ... and underplaying its best hand.

Atlanta 22, San Diego 16

Maybe it's because I just finished Jeff Pearlman's hard-to-put-down book, 'Boys Will Be Boys, depicting the hedonistic ways of the Dallas Cowboys, circa 1989-99, but I see a lot of Troy Aikman/Emmitt Smith/Michael Irvin in the Falcons' QB-RB-WR trio of Matt Ryan/Michael Turner/Roddy White. (Note: This is an on-field comparison only ... just like I would NEVER compare John Abraham's locker-room behavior to that of Charles Haley -- but you'll just have to read the book to learn that anecdote.) Think about it: Is there any other star triage you'd rather have in fantasyland than the rookie Ryan (207 passing yards), Turner (120 rushing yards and White (6 catches, 112 yards)? They're an unstoppable force right now. I have one last sleeper note: If you're in desperate need for a flex WR this week, Falcons rookie Harry Douglas has two touchdowns in two weeks ... and possesses the quickest feet -- coming off an end-around play -- that you may ever see.

Now for a quick word on the free-falling Chargers: You know it's a sad fantasy day when LaDainian Tomlinson (one rushing touchdown) nets only 66 yards and yet stands tall as San Diego's top performer. If I were Philip Rivers (149 passing yard, 0 TDs), Antonio Gates (3 catches, 27 yards) or Chris Chambers (1 catch, 2 yards) ... I'd take a sledgehammer to the game tape and immediately focus on the Swiss-cheese soft Raiders.

Miami 16, St. Louis 12

I could take the sad-sack Rams in a million different directions here, like how does Marc Bulger (149 yards, 3 INTs) not throw at least one touchdown against a highly suspect Dolphins pass defense? ... or is Torry Holt (3 catches, 30 yards) forever finished as a draftable fantasy receiver? ... or how can rookie WR Donnie Avery convert all those pass-interference calls into actual catches? Instead, I will focus on the only subject that anyone really cares about: Steven Jackson. In his highly anticipated return from injury, S-Jax carried the Rams offense for 110 total yards. He also logged 21 of the 30 St. Louis carries -- an impressive figure after a five-week hiatus from full-time play. And now, barring any midweek injury setbacks, I fully expect Jackson to tally at least 140 yards and/or one TD in the club's next three games -- at Arizona, vs. Seattle and vs. San Francisco. In other words, he's a fantasy-playoff ace in the hole! Regarding the Dolphins, maybe Davone Bess (6 catches, 84 yards) is the better short-term and long-term option at WR, now that Greg Camarillo (a Wes Welker clone) is lost for the season. (long pause) Actually, I think I'll stick with Ted Ginn (4 catches, 55 yards) over Bess in the next three weeks (Buffalo, San Francisco, Miami). Experience ... and world-class speed puts him over the top.

Tampa Bay 23, New Orleans 20

Speaking of injury returns, Reggie Bush totaled 32 yards on eight touches against the Bucs -- the kind of output I expected his first time out from knee surgery. And while I think Reggie will fare a lot better next week against Atlanta, I'm very, very concerned about his prospects for playing in Week 15 -- should the Saints lose again and tumble out of the playoff picture. Think about it: From a real-life perspective, what benefit is there to playing Bush if the playoffs are out of reach? None. That's why, and it pains me to say it, I cannot recommend starting Reggie during the fantasy-playoff weeks in standard-scoring leagues. Even in Points Per Reception leagues, where the very mention of Reggie's name strikes fear into the hearts of opposing owners, he's only a flex option. This all speaks to one of my favorite sayings in fantasyland: Never be stuck with a guy who suffers a knee injury before the trade deadline. Regarding Tampa Bay ... did you notice how QB Jeff Garcia completed only nine passes for 119 yards and one touchdown? Sad but true: I actually know someone who regularly starts Garcia over Shaun Hill and Tyler Thigpen; needless to say, he didn't make his league's playoffs.

Minnesota 34, Chicago 14

Keeping with the theme of injury-prone franchise backs ... if you thought Adrian Peterson (131 rushing yards, 1 TD vs. Chicago) looked sharp Sunday, wait for his numbers against Detroit (Week 14) and Arizona (Week 15). Yes, I fully realize he "only" tallied 111 rushing yards against the still-winless Lions in Week 6, but the sequel to Lions-Vikings is a match made in fantasy heaven, and AP has the potential for 200 total yards AND two touchdowns. The Vikings' fantasy bounty in the coming weeks, by the way, runs deeper than Peterson and QB Gus Frerotte (210 passing yards, 1 TD); feel free to start WR Bernard Berrian, TE Visanthe Shiancoe and even RB Chester Taylor in emergency and non-emergency situations.

Regarding the Bears' prospects for the fantasy playoffs, I'll keep this short and sweet: Don't even think of starting anyone outside Matt Forte (125 total yards, 1 TD vs. Minnesota) -- unless it's of the Defense/Special Teams variety.

Indianapolis 10, Cleveland 6

I'm willing to give Peyton Manning (125 passing yards, 0 TDs), Joseph Addai (63 total yards) and Reggie Wayne (4 catches, 46 yards) a free pass from this lame adventure -- only because I expect the trio to put up monster numbers at home against Cincinnati (Week 14) and Detroit in the next two weeks. And when I say "monster" stats ... I'll be shocked -- no, stunned -- if the threesome doesn't combine for 11 TDs in this two-game gift from the scheduling gods. As for the Browns ... it may be time to jump ship on starting Kellen Winslow (15 yards before getting injured) and Braylon Edwards (the equivalent of fantasy "roadkill" right now). However, Jamal Lewis (84 total yards) still looks like a great RB2 option during the fantasy playoffs of Week 15 (at Philly) and Week 16 (vs. Cincinnati).

N.Y. Giants 23, Washington 7

I realize Eli Manning only threw one touchdown on Sunday; and yes, I am fully aware he didn't break the 200-yard passing mark from Weeks 6-11. But for whatever reason, I have the utmost confidence in Eli (305 passing yards vs. Washington) during the poor-weather months of November and December, no matter the opposition. And you have to love his matchups the next two weeks -- Philadelphia and at Dallas. Of course, it helps that Manning has the best 1-2 punch at running back with Brandon Jacobs (71 yards, 1 TD) and Derrick Ward (105 total yards). As for the Redskins, I wonder if the club has Shaun Alexander's cell number on speed dial, especially if Clinton Portis' injury is more detrimental than a week-to-week proposition.

Baltimore 34, Cincinnati 3

It's a seemingly never-ending theme week after week after week ... if you're starting any Bengals outside of WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (4 catches, 64 yards vs. Baltimore) or kicker Shayne Graham, I'll assume your team isn't sniffing the playoffs. Here's another assumption: I would be shocked if Ryan Fitzpatrick (124 forgettable yards, 0 TDs), Houshmandzadeh, Chad Ocho Cinco (4 catches, 45 yards) or Cedric Benson (18 total yards) -- Cincinnati's Sunday starters -- are with the beleaguered franchise in 2009. (That's a good thing, by the way) Regarding the Ravens ... QB Joe Flacco (295 total yards, 2 TDs) stands as a sneaky must-start in Week 14 against the Redskins -- since he's a virtual lock for 250 yards and two touchdowns. But here's the kicker (not Matt Stover): Good luck in trying to pinpoint which pass-catcher will earn the lion's share of targets -- Mark Clayton (5 catches, 164 yards, 1 TD), Derrick Mason (6 catches, 91 yards, 1 TD), Todd Heap (39 yards, 1 TD) -- or which runner (LeRon McClain or Willis McGahee) will carry the load.

San Francisco 10, Buffalo 3

How's this for strange: I must've flipped over to Bills-49ers at least 30 times, care of DirecTV's Sunday Ticket; and not once did I see a Lee Evans catch or a Marshawn Lynch carry for more than eight yards. And yet, Lynch finished with 134 rushing yards (I missed the big 50-yarder) and Evans racked up seven catches for 80 yards -- respectable numbers for a team that managed only a field goal. Regarding the 49ers, QB Shaun Hill (161 yards, 1 TD) looked all-world on the club's first-quarter scoring drive ... and then, the offense went into Operation: Shutdown after that -- which wouldn't have been so excruciating to watch, if I hadn't started Hill over Philly QB Donovan McNabb (260 yards, 4 TDs on Thursday) in one of my eight fantasy leagues. Ouch!

Pittsburgh 33, New England 10

Instead of breaking down the Steelers and Patriots' individual parts, let's steer the convo back to the sometimes-rocky relationship between fantasy stars and inclement weather. Looking at the schedule, it's a virtual lock that Pittsburgh and New England will each play two of the next three games in potentially disparaging weather. And if you don't think that's a problem for quarterbacks, may I point to Exhibit A -- Matt Cassel's 169-yard, 0-TD effort on Sunday ... Exhibit B -- Tom Brady's 140-yard, 0-TD day in Week 15 of 2007, the only blemish on a 50-TD season. Bottom line: It pays to be weary of the weather -- even when superstars are in play.