Greg Jennings: Derick Hingle/Icon SMI

1. Never bench your studs when playing in fair weather: There's a reason you spent hours upon hours upon hours getting ready for the draft wayyyyyyyyy back in August. There's a reason you gave up four guys in October (including TE Tony Gonzalez and star rookie RB Tim Hightower) for the honor of taking a supreme chance on Joseph Addai's killer playoff schedule (more on that later). And there's a reason you shouldn't get sucked into the aura that is Broncos RB Peyton Hillis come December -- at least at the expense of starting Greg Jennings in the all-important RB/WR flex position this week against Houston. Of course, when the weather turns bad ...

2. Don't be afraid to bench players, even studs, in horrible weather: At first blush, this one runs contradictory to bullet No. 1. However, there is a major difference between a stud facing a good defense in fair weather and a stud facing a good defense in heavy rains, slippery snow or -- even worse -- stifling winds (QBs, for sure). Obviously, playing the "weather game" can backfire at times -- like when I benched Jay Cutler last week (playing in a monsoon at the Meadowlands) for Sage "Happy Feet" Rosenfels. But more often than not, weather can be the ultimate equalizer to star players. The greatest example shall remain Tom Brady in Week 15 of the '07 season. Against the Jets at home, but amid heavy rains and a tornado-like crosswind, Brady (who would throw for an NFL record 50 TDs last year) was basically reduced to Ryan Fitzpatrick-status that day in Foxboro, throwing for only 140 yards and zero TDs. As a result, every fantasy owner who assumed Brady would carry him to a championship was probably knocked out of the semifinal round. Benching a stud in bad weather is obviously a bold, risky move ... so make sure you have complete knowledge of the weather patterns from the opening whistle to the final gun. Not every QB is a genetic freak in the rain ... like Cutler (357 yards, 2 TDs against the Jets).

3. Don't sweat the small stuff, like overthinking kickers or defenses: I get a ton of emails and IMs from readers and friends each week, begging for theories on selecting kickers and/or defenses. And every time without fail, I deflate their creative balloons by saying that defenses, from week to week, are a redoubtable crapshoot. Think about it: Before the season began, fantasy owners were moving heaven and earth to grab the Chargers D/ST in Rounds 6 or 7 ... while a savvy owner in the same league probably got the Bucs or Jets (perhaps the two best D/ST all year) in the second-to-last or final round. Along those lines, I'm sure someone paid a pretty draft penny for Cowboys kicker Nick Folk back in August ... only to realize the second-year pro is just a talented, yet dime-a-dozen kicker. Listen, if you really want a great defense or kicker in the playoffs ... just go ahead and pick the D that's playing the Rams (the Cardinals this week ...) or Lions (... and Vikings) or choose a cold-weather club that's hosting a southern-fried team (the Bears have the slumping Jags at Soldier Field on Sunday). And when it comes to kickers, here's a capital approach: Either pick a guy who's kicking indoors this week (Josh Brown, Neil Rackers, Adam Vinatieri, Shayne Graham, Ryan Longwell or Jason Hanson) or the one who kicks for a team that's perpetually in the red zone (Tennessee's Rob Bironas).

Strange but true: The Broncos, at only 7-5 -- which includes a suspicious 3-3 home record -- could actually clinch their division (AFC West) this week, even before the 11-1 Titans or 11-1 Giants lock up the AFC South and NFC East, respectively. To accomplish this surreal objective (can you imagine an 8-5 or 7-6 team going into Operation: Shutdown -- thanks Derek Bell -- for the season's final three weeks?), Denver must beat Kansas City at home, while exacting some revenge for a bad loss to the Chiefs back in September. Can the Broncos actually beat a division foe, like the Chiefs, that was allowing 34 points per game for a long, long stretch, prior to playing the offensively challenged Raiders in Week 12? Can Brandon Marshall (only 29 catches in his last six games) finally find the end zone on Sunday, a feat he's only pulled off once since Week 3? And can Jay Cutler actually pounce on an opponent early and often at home -- instead of struggling mightily for three quarters before turning on the jets late, thanks to garbage-time production? Well, I think Cutler and Marshall are due for amazing weeks. Am I crazy? Here are some Accuscore estimates for Cutler, Marshall and Chiefs QB Tyler Thigpen:

Cutler: 270 total yards, 1.73 TDs

Marshall: 6 catches, 75 yards, 0.37 TDs

Thigpen: 224 total yard, 1.13 TDs Final Score: Denver 27, Kansas City 18

Not to put any undue pressure on Brandon Marshall (not that he cares what I think) ... but the Broncos-Chiefs game is literally a make-or-break one regarding his fantasy future beyond 2008. I've owned B-Marsh for two years running (in various leagues) and have grown increasingly weary of the countless dropped balls ... and perhaps even more galling, his tortoise-like running ability after making a catch. And yet, through it all, I still maintain the belief that he'll be worth the high draft pick, he'll be worth any pre-deadline non-trades for a great running back and he's THE reason why Jay Cutler can be fantasyland's third-best QB (behind Drew Brees and Kurt Warner). But he has to show up big in B-I-G games, starting with Week 14. It's a moral imperative (thanks, Real Genius, easily Val Kilmer's most underrated performance to date)!

The way I see it, there's nothing to say in this space that hasn't already been said, ad nauseum. So here it is, one last time, the playmakers who WILL dominate in Week 14:

QBs: Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Tyler Thigpen, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers
RBs: LaDainian Tomlinson, Frank Gore, Willis McGahee, Brandon Jacobs, Brian Westbrook, Adrian Peterson, Ryan Grant, Chris Johnson, Joseph Addai, Marshawn Lynch, Tim Hightower
WRs: Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Lee Evans, Greg Jennings, Antonio Bryant, Hines Ward, Terrell Owens, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Reggie Wayne, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Marques Colston

1. Drew Brees vs. Atlanta
2. Aaron Rodgers vs. Houston
3. Peyton Manning vs. Cincinnati
4. Jay Cutler vs. Kansas City
5. Gus Frerotte vs. Detroit
6. Ben Roethlisberger vs. Dallas
7. Kurt Warner vs. St. Louis
8. Brett Favre vs. San Francisco

This is the two-week period we've all been waiting for ... the coup de grace of fantasy football. The Colts, sitting at 8-4 and knee-deep in the AFC Wild Card race, have a pair of home games against the 1-10-1 Bengals and 0-11 Lions. From my vantage point, there is no way Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark (and to a lesser extent Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez, Dom Rhodes) can miss posting excellent numbers for Weeks 14 and 15, making them across-the-board "must-starts," no matter the scoring format. In fact, I'm willing to bet (or guarantee, if that helps) the powerful triumvirate of Manning, Addai and Wayne will combine for at least nine TDs (passing/rushing) -- they're that bankable!

A receiver is only as good as his quarterback ... and the number of opportunities he gets to make a catch (known as Targets). So, while the fantasy world applauds Green Bay wideout Greg Jennings for his 8-catch, 91-yard, 1-TD effort against Carolina last week, I'm busy marveling at the stunning 14 passes that came Jennings' way. Not to belabor the point, but Targets are a must-know for fantasy owners -- especially in PPR leagues. This underrated stat is the best way to safeguard against one-hit wonders during a long, long, long fantasy season. To wit, SI.com presents a list of the 23 pass-catchers (including two tight ends) who are averaging at least 8.8 Targets since Week 10:

1. WR Anquan Boldin, Cardinals (14.5 Targets)
2. TE Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs (12.8 Targets)
3. WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals (12.0 Targets)
4. WR Brandon Marshall, Broncos (11.8 Targets)
5. WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (11.0 Targets)
6. WR Braylon Edwards, Browns (11.0 Targets)
7. WR Randy Moss, Patriots (10.8 Targets)
8. WR Terrell Owens, Cowboys (10.7 Targets)
9. WR Andre Johnson, Texans (10.3 Targets)
10. WR Roddy White, Falcons (10.0 Targets)
11. WR Santana Moss, Redskins (10.0 Targets)
12. WR Greg Jennings, Packers (9.8 Targets)
13. TE Dustin Keller, Jets (9.8 Targets)
14. WR Hines Ward, Steelers (9.5 Targets)
15. WR DeSean Jackson, Eagles (9.5 Targets)
16. WR Chad Johnson, Bengals (9.5 Targets)
17. WR Wes Welker, Patriots (9.3 Targets)
18. WR Steve Smith, Panthers (9.3 Targets)
19. WR Kevin Curtis, Eagles (9.3 Targets)
20. WR Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs (9.0 Targets)
21. WR Calvin Johnson, Lions (9.0 Targets)
22. WR Lance Moore, Saints (8.8 Targets)
23. WR Reggie Wayne, Colts (8.8 Targets)

Thomas Jones: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

1. Joseph Addai vs. Cincinnati
2. Darren McFadden vs. San Diego
3. Frank Gore vs. N.Y. Jets
4. Adrian Peterson vs. Detroit (I'm tempted to have Chester Taylor here, too)
5. Michael Turner vs. New Orleans (how long has he had this one circled on his calendar?)
6. Brandon Jacobs/Derrick Ward vs. Philadelphia (whichever one gets the start)
7. Matt Forte vs. Jacksonville
8. Thomas Jones vs. San Francisco (this is yardage-only prediction)
9. Marshawn Lynch vs. Miami
10. Chris Johnson vs. Cleveland
11. LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Oakland
12. Larry Johnson vs. Denver
13. Brian Westbrook vs. N.Y. Giants

1. Rob Bironas vs. Cleveland
2. Rian Lindell vs. Miami
3. Matt Bryant vs. Carolina
4. Mason Crosby vs. Houston
5. Nate Kaeding vs. Oakland
6. Ryan Longwell vs. Detroit
7. Neil Rackers vs. St. Louis
8. Robbie Gould vs. Jacksonville
9. Stephen Gostkowski vs. Seattle

Here are seven free agents I'd spend at least $21 on this week in blind-bidding leagues when handling waiver-wire pickups ($100 salary cap):
1. QB Joe Flacco, Ravens (who's going to stop him in the next three weeks?)
2. WR Domenick Hixon, Giants (17 targets, 128 yards in last two Plaxico Burress-free weeks)
3. TE Heath Miller, Steelers (ride him as the Pittsburgh weather gets harsher)
4. PK Nick Folk, Cowboys (6 field goals, 7 extra points in last two games)
5. RB Pierre Thomas, Saints (just in case you're skeptical of Reggie Bush's "healthy" knee -- like me)
6. QB Shaun Hill, 49ers (the perfect blend of close-game and garbage-time goodness)
7. WR Davone Bess , Dolphins (he's playing a very-close second fiddle to Ted Ginn Jr.)

Just another three weeks until we dive full-bore into the land of hardwoods and soft perimeter defenders. In the meantime, here are three substantial rotisserie lists for fans of fantasy cross-pollination -- dating back to Nov. 3:

15.5 points per game, 5.2 assists
LeBron James, Cavaliers
Devin Harris, Nets
Joe Johnson, Hawks
Tony Parker, Spurs
Brandon Roy, Blazers
Jamal Crawford, Warriors
Stephen Jackson, Warriors
Chris Paul, Hornets
Chauncey Billups, Nuggets
Derrick Rose, Bulls
Baron Davis, Clippers
Allen Iverson, Pistons
Ramon Sessions, Bucks
Jameer Nelson, Magic

5.6 Rebounds/1.2 steals per game
Andris Biedrins, Warriors
Antawn Jamison, Wizards
Shawn Marion, Heat
Gerald Wallace, Bobcats
Drew Gooden, Bulls
Nene Hilario, Nuggets
Amare Stoudemire, Suns
Jason Kidd, Mavericks
LeBron James, Cavaliers
Andre Iguodala, 76ers
Kenyon Martin, Nuggets
Caron Butler, Wizards
Rashard Lewis, Magic
Lamar Odom, Lakers
Trevor Ariza, Lakers
Chris Paul, Hornets
Rudy Gay, Grizzlies
Andrei Kirilenko, Jazz

1.8 3-pointers made/84% Free Throws
Danny Granger, Pacers
Roger Mason, Jr., Spurs
Peja Stojakovic, Hornets
Joe Johnson, Hawks
Rudy Fernandez, Blazers
Ray Allen, Celtics
Ben Gordon, Bulls
Chauncey Billups, Nuggets
O.J. Mayo , Grizzlies
Quentin Richardson, Knicks
Steve Blake, Blazers
Michael Redd, Bucks
Daequan Cook, Heat
Mike Miller, Grizzlies