SI.com's experts weigh in with their predictions for Saturday's race in Phoenix.
| Experts' Picks: Subway Fresh Fit 500 |
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| 48 |
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| | My Pick: Jimmie Johnson |
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Why he'll win: The draught for Hendrick Motorsports ends on Saturday night in Phoenix when Johnson will become the team's first driver to reach Victory Lane this season. Johnson won in the desert last November and the reigning Cup champ is slowly getting back his mojo, as he finished second last week at Texas Motor Speedway.
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Keep an eye on: Carl Edwards -- Edwards already has three wins this season and he's established himself as the driver to beat for the title. Edwards' best career finish at PIR is fourth, but given how his season is going, don't be surprised if he does better than that on Saturday.
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Don't expect much from: Jamie McMurray -- McMurray has been one of the biggest disappoints of the season. While his Roush Fenway teammates Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth have consistently run in the lead pack, McMurray only has one top-10 finish and is currently 25th in the points. Don't expect this trend to change at PIR, where in nine career starts McMurray has never finished in the top 10.
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| | My Pick: Tony Stewart |
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Why he'll win: He's due. Driving for the best team in Cup racing is going to pay off for him sooner or later, and he loves racing at Phoenix, where he's got one win, eight top-10s and an average finish of 9.4.
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Keep an eye on: Matt Kenseth -- The No. 31 Chevy has been far from dominant this year, but Burton has done his usual terrific job of getting in position to win. Plus, he likes Phoenix, with two wins and nine top-10 finishes there.
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Don't expect much from: Greg Biffle -- The Biff finished second at Phoenix last November, but he's got only one other top-10 finish there in his career. Besides, he just seems to be sagging right now after a hot start, having finished 20th and 39th in the last two races.
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| | My Pick: Clint Bowyer |
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Why he'll win: Bowyer joined the rest of his RCR teammates in qualifying poorly at Phoenix -- none of them start higher than 17th, and Bowyer himself rolls off 24th on Saturday night. But don't be fooled; this organization's on a roll right now, and the track has always been one of Bowyer's favorites. After four consecutive top-10 finishes, the team is in position to step it up a notch this weekend and become the third RCR team to win in eight races.
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Keep an eye on: Mark Martin -- Martin's recent history at Phoenix is nothing to write home about -- he hasn't had a top-5 finish here since 2002 -- but whenever he qualifies 4th for a race, it should raise eyebrows for everyone. The car's been fast since the second the No. 8 team unloaded Thursday; as long as they can carry the momentum over into race trim, there's no question Martin will be a contender for the win Saturday night.
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Don't expect much from: Elliott Sadler -- Sadler qualified on the outside pole, but he'll likely backslide from there. In twelve career starts at the track, he's never finished better than 10th.
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