Reevaluating the draft with high school recruiting rankings

Boston College quarterback and possible top-five pick Matt Ryan was far below Miami's Kyle Wright in the recruiting rankings coming out of high school. AP

This week, I took a trip down memory lane, examining the Rivals.com and Scout.com evaluations of all the players included the mock draft SI NFL writer Peter King included in this week's Monday Morning Quarterback. By and large, the recruitniks recognized special talent with as much accuracy as college coaches and as NFL scouts, who, despite all their accumulated wisdom, never will live down the fact that they allowed former NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue to make the following statement: "With the third pick, the Cincinnati Bengals select Akili Smith, quarterback, Oregon."

While recruitniks have their own Waterloos (Willie Williams, Xavier Lee), they identified plenty of this year's potential first-rounders before many of those players were old enough to drive. Of the 31 players King believes will go in the first round, eight received a five-star (can't miss) rating by at least one of the services and five (USC linebacker Keith Rivers, Oregon tailback Jonathan Stewart, Florida defensive end Derrick Harvey, Cal receiver DeSean Jackson and Michigan quarterback Chad Henne) received five-star rankings from both services. Twelve more players received a four-star (likely college star) ranking from at least one service. If an NFL team's scouting department correctly evaluated 20 of 31 picks, that team would dominate.

1. Miami -- Jake Long, OT, Michigan: 2003 Rivals 4-star, Scout 4-star

Just about everyone in the Big Ten -- except Ohio State -- wanted Long, who drew attention in 2002 as a 6-foot-6, 295-pound junior at East High in Lapeer, Mich.

2. St. Louis -- Chris Long, DE, Virginia: 2004 Rivals 4-star, Scout 3-star

Long might have been more hyped had he not chosen Virginia so early in the recruiting process. Still, some realized the apple hadn't fallen far from the tree.

3. Atlanta -- Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College: 2003 Rivals 3-star, Scout 3-star

Quarterbacks can be tough to project up a level. Case in point: Ryan was ranked far behind future Miami quarterback Kyle Wright . Of course, JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn also were ranked behind Wright.

4. Oakland -- Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU: 2004 Rivals 4-star, Scout 5-star

About a year before Signing Day 2004, Dorsey wasn't a lock to qualify academically. That cut down on his offers, but then-LSU coach Nick Saban and offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher, who recruited Ascension Parish, offered early and stuck with Dorsey.

5. Kansas City -- Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State: 2004 Rivals 2-star, Scout 2-star

Only two of the players in Clady's signing class received three-star rankings. The rest received two, including Clady and America's Sweetheart, tailback Ian Johnson. It's a testament to the talent evaluation prowess of former Broncos coach Dan Hawkins and his staff that many of these players helped stun Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

6. New York Jets -- Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas: 2005 Rivals 5-star, Scout 4-star

McFadden received a scholarship offer from then-Arkansas coach Houston Nutt after reportedly running a 4.37-second 40-yard dash at an Arkansas football camp as a 15-year-old high school sophomore. The rest of the SEC noticed, but McFadden chose to stay in his home state.

7. New England -- Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State: 2003 4-star Rivals, 3-star scout

This ranking is a bit puzzling. Recruitniks and NFL scouts usually are drawn to freakish athleticism like sportswriters to a buffet, but somehow the recruiting folks failed to pick up the scent here. Gholston, the most freakish athlete in this draft, didn't get much buzz until just before his senior season in high school.

8. Baltimore -- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State: 2004 Rivals NR, Scout NR

Rodgers-Cromartie's NFL.com bio claims he received a four-star ranking from Rivals, but no record of that rating appears in the Rivals database. It's amazing any college noticed Rodgers-Cromartie, considering he played for four different high schools and spent his senior season strictly as a receiver.

9. Cincinnati -- Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC: 2003 Rivals 4-star, Scout 4-star

Want to hear something scary? Ellis, one of the nation's top interior linemen in 2003, seriously considered LSU. That's right. He and Dorsey could have played together for at least three years.

10. New Orleans -- Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida: 2003 Rivals 3-star; Scout 3-star

Like Hawkins and successor Chris Peterson at Boise State, USF coach Jim Leavitt and his staff have excelled at finding under-recruited gems. Jenkins got more attention than most Bulls recruits of the day -- he had offers from Nebraska and Clemson -- but Florida's "big three" never offered. Leavitt did.

11. Buffalo -- Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State: 2006 (JUCO) Rivals 4-star, Scout 3-star

Thomas considered Junior College University -- Kansas State -- but dropped the Wildcats after Bill Snyder retired. The Spartans reaped the rewards.

12. Denver -- Keith Rivers, LB, USC: 2004 Rivals 5-star, Scout 5-star

It's been a good year for the Lake Mary (Fla.) High football program. In January, a slow, undersized offensive lineman from the class of 1996 began writing for SI.com. In April, the best player in the program's history will be an NFL first-rounder. It's amazing to think that in 2004, the big debate in Florida was whether Rivers or Willie Williams was the Sunshine State's best defender.

13. Carolina -- Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon: 2005 Rivals 5-star, Scout 5-star

Recruitniks were all over Stewart before college coaches were even allowed to send him a letter. As a high school sophomore, he rushed for 1,524 yards and 15 touchdowns -- in five games.

14. Chicago -- Jeff Otah, OT, Pitt: 2006 (JUCO) Rivals 4-star, Scout 4-star

When hunting JUCO players, it's good to get in early. Pitt coaches recognized "Baby Shaq" (6-6, 340) could be something special before their colleagues, and that helped the Panthers beat out Oklahoma, South Carolina and West Virginia.

15. Detroit -- Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida: 2004 Rivals 5-star, Scout 5-star

Harvey's sky-high rankings were almost entirely projections. He didn't play organized football until his junior year of high school, but the former basketball player's athleticism was off the meter.