Reiter 50: Winter meetings end, but offseason has barely begun

Now that CC Sabathia is off the market, Mark Teixeira has become the top free-agent in baseball. AP

After four long days during which news and rumors -- far more of the latter than the former, it must be said -- spread electrically through the long, wide corridors that connect the elevator bank with the conference center at the Bellagio in Las Vegas, baseball's winter meetings finally ended on Thursday afternoon. The offseason, though, has only barely begun. As of Friday afternoon, just 11 of the top 50 available free agents, according to the list I compiled a month and a half ago, have been signed (a 12th, Mike Mussina, retired), and of those 11, only five -- CC Sabathia, Francisco Rodriguez, A.J. Burnett, Ryan Dempster and Raul Ibanez -- rank in the top 20.

The meetings seemed to confirm the notion that the economy will have a real impact on all but a few big league teams (you know who they are), and as a result, on the dollars committed to all but a few free agents.

One general manager insisted to me that he and the majority of his colleagues are not using the economic crisis as a mere bargaining ploy, as some player agents have suggested. "You've got a lot of owners whose other businesses are being impacted," he said. "Most teams will operate with varying degrees of caution. It's clearly going to affect us, and it's going to affect most teams."

Of the free agent market, the GM added, "The top group will definitely get fair contracts, and there will be a tier just below them that will do very well, but somewhere below them I assume there will be an underbelly. What's going on is real, whether it's [533,000] people losing jobs last month, or corporations in deep trouble. That impacts everyone."

Everyone, perhaps, but whomever the loaded-as-ever Yankees choose to sign, plus a handful of top starting pitchers, and Mark Teixeira and Rafael Furcal. Even though most free agents will find themselves wishing they'd have hit the open market in 2007, not '08, there's still a significant amount of talent available to the highest bidder. Below you'll find a post-winter meetings update of the Reiter 50, with new "best fits" and explanations where appropriate.

1. CC Sabathia

Age: 28
Position: Starting pitcher
Club in 2008: Brewers
Old best fit: Dodgers
Signed with: Yankees

His seven-year, $161 million contract, a record for a pitcher, puts him in a tough spot. If he contends for the Cy Young award each and every season, he'll only be doing what he's supposed to do; if he comes up a bit short, he'll be a viewed as a historic failure. Accepting that pressure is worth an extra $61 million, I suppose.

2. Mark Teixeira

Age: 28
Position: First baseman
Club in 2008: Angels
Old best fit: Yankees
New best fit: Angels

Both the Nationals and Orioles have reportedly made huge offers (eight years and $160 million in the Nats' case) to the switch-hitting Maryland native, but that might not be enough to land Teixeira. The Red Sox and Yankees are firmly in the mix, but Angels owner Arte Moreno will probably do whatever it takes to bring Teixeira back.

3. Manny Ramirez

Age: 38
Position: Outfielder
Club in 2008: Dodgers
Old best fit: Dodgers
New best fit: Dodgers

At the winter meetings, Dodgers GM Ned Colletti compared negotiations with Manny to "like watching the San Andreas Fault." I still believe Manny will end up with the Dodgers, but he won't be happy with the contract, which likely won't be much more than he would have earned had he just stayed in Boston, and we all know what's bound to happen if you watch the San Andreas Fault long enough.

4. Francisco Rodriguez

Age: 27
Position: Relief pitcher
Club in 2008: Angels
Old best fit: Angels
Signed with: Mets

What a bullpen the Mets now have, with K-Rod closing for them (thanks to his three-year, $37 million deal, about half as much in total as he initially sought) and J.J. Putz setting him up! Right? Unless Rodriguez's velocity continues to decrease, and Putz continues to struggle to stay healthy ... but let's not talk about that now.

5. A.J. Burnett

Age: 31
Position: SP
Club in 2008: Blue Jays
Old best fit: Braves
New best fit: Yankees

Brittle in the past but threw a career-high 221.1 innings in 2008, which was (guess what?) his contract year. His 231 strikeouts led the American League, and his filthy stuff has GM's salivating. On Friday, Burnett reached an agreement with the Yankees on a five-year, $82.5 million deal.

6. Derek Lowe

Age: 35
Position: SP
Club in 2008: Dodgers
Old best fit: Red Sox
New best fit: Red Sox

A bit boring, sure, but has topped 200 IP in six of last seven seasons and is a proven postseason performer. He'll be a rotation's glue, and will be duly rewarded. Should they not sign Teixeira, the Red Sox will have plenty to spend on Lowe.

7. Rafael Furcal

Age: 31
Position: Shortstop
Club in 2008: Dodgers
Old best fit: Dodgers
New best fit: Dodgers

Would be much higher (perhaps No. 4) if not for back issues that limited him to 36 games in '08. That he turned down a good offer from the A's (four years, between $35 million and $40 million) points to a return to L.A.

8. Orlando Cabrera

Age: 34
Position: SS
Club in 2008: White Sox
Old best fit: Blue Jays
New best fit: Blue Jays

Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston clearly covets Furcal -- in his meeting with the Toronto beat writers he must have mentioned his name a half-dozen times -- but might have to settle for Cabrera, who will fill the Jays' need for a leadoff-hitting shortstop.

9. Oliver Perez

Age: 27
Position: SP
Club in 2008: Mets
Old best fit: Mets
New best fit: Mets

Regressed a bit from '07 to '08 (ERA and WHIP jumped and K-rate dropped), but riches await lefthanded strikeout artists of this age. Would be a fine consolation prize for the Mets should they lose out on Lowe, etc.

10. Adam Dunn

Age: 29
Position: OF
Club in 2008: Diamondbacks
Old best fit: Angels
New best fit: Nationals

As unfairly maligned as any player with five straight 40+ home run seasons and a .365+ OBP can be. Nats fans dreaming of Teixeira will be disappointed if this long-time Jim Bowden favorite is signed instead, but Dunn will be far more affordable and he should continue to produce for a club that desperately needs some offensive juice.