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Upset special (cont.)

Posted: Friday January 18, 2008 2:14PM; Updated: Saturday January 19, 2008 10:27PM
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Antonio Cromartie led the NFL with 10 interceptions this season.
Antonio Cromartie led the NFL with 10 interceptions this season.
Bob Rosato/SI
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3. Keep those turnovers coming: The Chargers led the NFL in takeaways with 48, picking off 30 passes and recovering 18 fumbles. They've added five more in their first two playoff games (three interceptions and two fumble recoveries), meaning they're averaging just less than three takeaways per game for the season. Given San Diego's injury situation, one way to balance the field Sunday would be if its defense could present its offense with a few short-field scoring opportunities.

But the next time New England gets sloppy with the football will be the first time New England gets sloppy with the football this season. The Patriots turned the ball over just 15 times this season, a franchise record and the fifth-lowest total in league history. New England lost a mere six fumbles this season and didn't have a fumble by a running back. Four of the team's six fumbles were by quarterback Tom Brady in strip-sack situations. One was by kickoff return man Ellis Hobbs, and one was on a muffed punt by Troy Brown (when the ball hit off his face mask).

That's a remarkable statistic, and if the turnover trend holds for New England, the Chargers' upset chances are greatly reduced. But if San Diego's defense can keep its ball-hawking ways going, especially if it prevents New England from scoring in the red zone as it did to the Colts last week, the Patriots could be beat.

4. Harrison and Seau play more like old Patriots rather than ex-Chargers: New England safety Rodney Harrison and inside linebacker Junior Seau both made their NFL names in San Diego, playing nine and 13 years, respectively, for the Bolts. Both left sunny Southern California after the 2002 season, Harrison for the Patriots and Seau for the Dolphins.

My point is they've been around for quite a while now. Seau turns 39 Saturday, and Harrison is 35. And while they take excellent care of themselves and almost always play well from the neck up, at this point in the year they do show signs of wearing down. Harrison has been hurting the Patriots by drawing too many needless personal foul penalties in recent games, and Seau is often part of the problem when the interior of the Patriots defense struggles against physical opponents.

What if the two ex-Chargers are players that San Diego's offense hope to exploit? You have to figure that somebody who's still around in San Diego knows how they best can be had.

5. History to repeat itself: Do you know what happened the last time the Chargers ventured into Gillette Stadium with a historic Patriots winning streak on the line? They beat the two-time defending Super Bowl champions to a pulp, 41-17, in Week 4 of the 2005 regular season. New England entered that game having won a franchise-record 21 consecutive home games dating to Week 17 of 2002.

So what's a little 17-0 perfect season to deal with compared to that? And it's not like these Chargers don't remember that 2005 game. Tomlinson ran for 134 yards and two touchdowns, Antonio Gates caught six passes for 108 yards, and Marty Schottenheimer's club rolled up 431 yards of offense and scored more points than anyone had against a New England defense in nearly seven years. San Diego scored the game's final 24 points and afterward even tried to take pity on the Patriots, who were playing through a host of injuries at that point.

I wouldn't be surprised if current Chargers coach Norv Turner trotted out that game tape this week, showing his underdog team the mighty Patriots can be beaten, even at home. Of course, that game was played in early October. New England hasn't ever lost a playoff game at Gillette, and its only postseason home loss in franchise history came 29 years ago. So there's that. Good luck, Chargers.

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