Reassessing Round 1 with less than three weeks to go

Just 17 days out from the 2008 NFL draft, we hold these "truths" to be self-evident:

• The No. 1-sitting Dolphins positively aren't taking a quarterback in that slot, but that doesn't mean that their QB of the future won't come with Miami's first-overall pick in round two (Chad Henne?).

• As much as Falcons owner Arthur Blank might want to sell the fresh hope that quarterback Matt Ryan would represent to his team's fans, he's going to let new Atlanta general manager Thomas Dimitroff build a foundation the way he has been taught -- up front. That spells a lineman for the Falcons, probably LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey.

• Ryan is going to wind up playing for either ex-Jets coach Herman Edwards in No. 5 Kansas City, or for current Jets coach Eric Mangini in No. 6 New York. Either way, linemen should occupy at least the draft's top four slots, with Ryan and Arkansas running back Darren McFadden being the first skill players taken at No. 5 and No. 6.

• As the picking nears, players climbing up our draft board include USC linebacker Keith Rivers, Boise State offensive tackle Ryan Clady, Michigan State receiver Devin Thomas and Virginia guard Branden Albert. We've got all of them going in our top 12.
(Send comments to siwriters@simail.com)

Mock NFL Draft No. 5 Pick Team Pos. Player College Class Ht. Wt. 1 DE Chris Long Virginia Sr. 6-3 266 We're not moving off of Howie's boy going first overall, but here's a very possible scenario for the Dolphins: Football czar Bill Parcells has four players he's considering at No. 1 -- Chris Long, Jake Long, Vernon Gholston and Glenn Dorsey -- and whichever one of them seems willing to negotiate the fairest deal prior to draft day winds up getting the nod. That said, the safest pick for Miami, the one Parcells trusts in the most, is Chris Long. He may not have the upside potential of Gholston or Dorsey, but he has the track record, he has the bloodlines, and he has the stamp of approval from Virginia head coach Al Groh, a longtime Parcells ally. 2 OT Jake Long Michigan Sr. 6-7 309 We've had Michigan's Long to the Rams for the longest time, but there's a very real chance the pick could be Gholston, given their equally pressing need for more edge pass rush. St. Louis has always had a touch of dysfunction as an organization, and now with owner Georgia Frontiere having passed away and her children becoming more involved in the operation of the franchise, there's even more uncertainty surrounding which way the Rams will go in this draft. Logic says it has to be either a defensive end or an offensive tackle. 3 DT Glenn Dorsey LSU Sr. 6-1 310 If new general manager Thomas Dimitroff follows his gut, which always tells him to build up the foundation of your two lines first, the pick will be Dorsey. If he quite naturally leans toward pleasing team owner Arthur Blank, who needs to sell some fresh new hope to Falcons fans, Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan would win out. My instincts say Blank will tell Dimitroff to follow his instincts. Some believe the Falcons will take Dorsey, then use some of their bevy of picks to trade back into the bottom of the first round and select Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm -- somewhat like No. 3 Cleveland did last year with Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn. 4 DE/LB Vernon Gholston Ohio State Jr. 6-4 255 I've moved away from giving the Raiders Arkansas running back Darren McFadden in this slot, because as much as owner Al Davis is always infatuated with speed guys, his stockpile of running backs just demands he turn his attention elsewhere. So even though the word is Davis thinks McFadden could be their next Marcus Allen, we'll give him the talent-laden Gholston, an end-rush linebacker who would inject some impact playmaking potential into coordinator Rob Ryan's defensive front. 5 QB Matt Ryan Boston College Sr. 6-5 221 This will be the test of whether Chiefs general manager Carl Peterson and head coach Herman Edwards can see the forest for the trees. As tempting as Ryan may be, the reality is Kansas City can't protect him with its current rag-tag offensive line. At least one league insider predicted to me that if the Chiefs take Ryan instead of an offensive tackle, Peterson and Edwards will both wind up getting fired sooner rather than later. If Jake Long doesn't make it to No. 5, Boise State tackle Ryan Clady should be K.C.'s fallback plan. But something tells me it is Ryan's slot to lose. 6 RB Darren McFadden Arkansas Jr. 6-2 212 My hunch is that the Jets would be thrilled with either Gholston or Ryan falling to them, but the objects of their desire are going to be snapped up in the two picks just before theirs arrives. That means they'll face a choice between McFadden and his game-changing skills, or going with a top-rated cornerback like Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie of Tennessee State or Leodis McKelvin of Troy. If Ryan is still there, look for New York to grab him, and eventually release or trade veteran Chad Pennington. 7 LB Keith Rivers USC Sr. 6-3 236 The caveat every mock mentions first in regard to No. 7 New England is the potential for the Patriots to trade down out of this slot, and that scenario remains a strong possibility. But if the Patriots do stick, Rivers is a rising prospect to keep an eye on. New England asks its linebackers to be able to handle both inside and outside roles in the 3-4, and the Pats feel Rivers can do that. The fly in this ointment is that New England has never drafted a linebacker on the first day in the Bill Belichick era, and if that form holds, look for the Patriots to take the best available defensive lineman (USC tackle Sedrick Ellis) or offensive lineman (Clady or Virginia guard Branden Albert). 8 OT Ryan Clady Boise State Jr. 6-6 317 The Ravens usually have the discipline to draft players at the game's positions of value, and that gives them some nice options if they don't wind up trading out of this slot. Clady represents an obvious replacement for bookend left OT Jonathan Ogden, where youngster Jared Gaither remains a project. But the Ravens have to be tempted by Ellis as well, and GM Ozzie Newsome usually lives by the rule that you take a highly rated defensive lineman when one falls to you. Lastly, Baltimore's crying need for youth at cornerback brings Rodgers-Cromartie, McKelvin and Kansas's Aqib Talib into the discussion. One last thought: If Ryan tumbles, the Ravens will pounce on him. 9 DT Sedrick Ellis USC Sr. 6-1 308 There's at least three teams that could take Ellis before Cincy's No. 9 rolls around, so the Bengals will be fortunate if he lingers this long. But he's an ideal fit for them, because nothing is higher on Marvin Lewis' need list than a 300-plus-pound defensive tackle who boasts great athleticism and the ability to generate some inside pass rush while still being a force in run defense. It's worth noting that nearly every major mock draft has Ellis going to the Bengals, which means it can't possibly happen. 10 CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Tennessee State Sr. 6-2 181 In need of a defensive tackle, and knowing that Dorsey and Ellis are on everyone's board, the Saints will explore the cost of climbing higher to get one of them. If that fails, New Orleans could also take USC linebacker Rivers should the No. 7 Patriots trade down or pass on him. If the Saints don't have those options, they should have their pick of the top-rated cornerbacks. Rodgers-Cromartie isn't just a bunch of predraft buzz. Starting with a solid Senior Bowl week, he has steadily climbed into top 10 consideration, and he could go as high as the No. 7 slot. Mock Draft Continued