Teenagers likely to dominate the top of the NBA draft

One scout likened LSU power forward Anthony Randolph to Chris Bosh. Chris Graythen/Getty Images

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5 Top picks in this year's draft

We won't know the order of the draft until the May 20 lottery, but it's a good bet that the first four picks will come from my top four below. Note the dominance of teenagers ...

5. Anthony Randolph (18 years old), 6-11 freshman PF, LSU. I admit he's a longshot to go this high, but who knows? It's shaping up to be a four-player draft, followed by several murkier picks based on long-term potential.

"Randolph has the most upside of anybody,'' an NBA scout said. "This guy, if you walked into his gym, you'd say, 'I'm looking at Chris Bosh [when he was a freshman at Georgia Tech]. He's from Dallas, he's skinny and left-handed, skilled and athletic -- all like Bosh. He doesn't shoot it quite as well as Bosh did, and we have a lot more to learn about him over the next two months. But he could become Chris Bosh.''

4. Eric Gordon (19), 6-4 freshman SG, Indiana. In 2004, undersized shooting guard Ben Gordon went No. 3 to Chicago, with several teams seeking to trade up for him. Will Eric Gordon (no relation) create a similar market? His aggressiveness and versatility as a scorer will translate to the NBA while endearing him to GMs who value a killer instinct.

"The Big Ten is an awful league, but he's been really, really good,'' the scout said. "He's a big, thick kid, a little short for a 2 but at 215 [pounds], he can play there. He shoots it with great range and he's not really selfish; he's a willing passer.

"When I saw him, I was disappointed in how he defended. But he will score in our league. I don't know if he has a chance to be an All-Star, but he's one of the rare guys as a young kid who can make NBA threes. He's going to come in and make that shot.''

3. Danilo Gallinari (19), 6-9 SF, Armani Jeans Milan (Italy). As the draft draws near and Gallinari is placed in the equivalent of a police lineup alongside the other candidates, I'm betting he'll emerge as the No. 3 pick. The NBA will see that he's a true 6-9 (they don't inflate heights in Europe as they do over here), an excellent athlete with three-point range, playmaking abilities and a post-up game. As a teenager, he's been the leader of his team playing among grown men in the Italian Serie A and the Euroleague, either of which is far more taxing than the NCAA.

I visited Gallinari in Milan in January, and there is a growing consensus in Italy that he can become a better player than countryman Andrea Bargnani, the No. 1 pick of the 2006 draft.

2. Derrick Rose (19), 6-4 freshman PG, Memphis. He is the firm No. 2 choice right now. "You win with 1s and 5s, and he's the best athlete in the draft,'' a scout said. "He runs like Bo Jackson. He's the fastest player in basketball; end line to end line, you can't catch him. You can't replicate that speed. It puts so much pressure on the defense.

"Though Rose isn't a great shooter, he's a better shooter than Jason Kidd. In time, he'll be good enough with his shooting. He's a great defender, a great rebounder. He's a little wild at times, but it's easier to slow down players than it is to rev them up. He's a no-nonsense kid, and you could play him alongside a small guard because physically he can guard a 2.''

1. Michael Beasley (19), 6-9 freshman power forward, Kansas State. "He shoots 39.8 percent from the three; there are guards in this draft who don't do that," another scout said. "He plays right-handed, left-handed, he rebounds. He has an unbelievable feel for the game. He's not selfish, doesn't take 30 shots and he tries to play the right way even though his team is not very good. You go to Kansas and get 39 [points] the first time you ever play there [last Saturday], and the next game [against Colorado] you get 33. The guy's a machine.

"Everyone questions his character. He's immature, as he should be. But he's not malicious. His mistakes are magnified because he's the best player in the draft. But don't overevaluate a guy like this, don't look for warts -- do your due diligence, for sure. But unless he's done something really bad in his life, judge his character by the way he plays. He's having a better year than Kevin Durant statistically [last year] and he doesn't have nearly as good players as teammates as Durant had.''

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