With three rookies joining All-Star guard Brandon Roy (above) and their other young up-and-comers, the Trail Blazers are poised to make the playoffs in 2008-09. Greg Nelson/SI Ian Thomsen's Mailbag Ian Thomsen will periodically answer questions from SI.com users in his mailbag. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND

I have the right to predict what may happen next season, even at this early date. And I have the right to change my mind in the months ahead, based on pending events and an unexpected leap in wisdom.

5 Premature views of 2008-09

5. Lottery teams that will move into the playoffs. By my count, it's a small number.

b. Indiana Pacers. They won 36 games last season amid Jermaine O'Neal's injuries as coach Jim O'Brien and assistant Dick Harter were installing their new offense and defense, respectively. Team president Larry Bird has already turned O'Neal into T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic and rookie Roy Hibbert, which -- along with the draft-day trade that included Jarrett Jack -- fills big needs at point guard and center. The improved Pacers will enter camp with a perimeter-based team more suited to O'Brien's unusual tastes. Figuring that every Eastern Conference playoff team will be .500 or better next season, based on the improvements made already, I'm giving the restructured Pacers a slight edge over the perennially young Hawks.

a. Portland Trail Blazers. Given the decline of the two teams directly above them in the Western Conference standings -- the Nuggets (who overnighted Marcus Camby to the Clippers) and the Warriors (who essentially subbed out Baron Davis for Corey Maggette, Ronny Turiaf and Marcus Williams) -- the Blazers should avoid the lottery for the first time in six years. To a young team that won a surprising 41 games they're adding Greg Oden along with Spanish rookie swingman Rudy Fernandez and 6-foot-3 combo guard Jerryd Bayless, whose size won't be a problem while playing alongside Brandon Roy. All three newcomers will fill out a rotation that already featured All-Star Roy and emerging star LaMarcus Aldridge. This could be the most fun team to watch next season -- and don't forget, the Blazers will have $15 million or more in cap space next summer regardless of the outcome of Darius Miles' comeback (see below).

4. Developing stories. These issues are all TBD:

d. The Nuggets' demise. How is coach George Karl going to rally Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Kenyon Martin and Nenê to advance without their best defender in Camby? This is a payroll-heavy roster that has won four games over the last five postseasons. The Camby deal could be the beginning of an extended, excruciating collapse.

c. Ron Artest's future. Ask Artest and he'll be glad to tell you his future. Ask him again 15 minutes later and he'll forecast an entirely different future. Come back around the next day and that future will be something he never happened to mention the first two times. The only thing I can tell you is that he's going to be traded sometime by the February deadline.

b. A big Cavaliers trade. Don't read too much into their strong playoff showing against the Celtics. The Cavs' current roster will struggle to score during the regular season, with several Eastern rivals plotting to move ahead of Cleveland. But the Cavaliers are not going to stand still and let that happen amid speculation of LeBron James' 2010 departure. They'll be looking to package their $30 million in expiring contracts as well as Zydrunas Ilgauskas and/or Anderson Varejao for a point guard and/or shooters and/or a star or two to give James a chance to realize his potential in Cleveland.

a. The Pistons' reinvention. When he can make the trade that makes sense, Joe Dumars will move one or more of his starters to rejuvenate their title hopes. It may not happen until the New Year, when the allure of Rasheed Wallace's expiring $13.7 million salary will be peaking. But let's not be carried away: As things stand today, no rival has done enough to unseat the Pistons as the No. 2 team in the East -- and with new coach Michael Curry's emphasis on setting standards and holding players accountable, the Pistons won't be sliding anytime soon. But they need to change something to renew their postseason confidence.

3. Award winners. I must be crazy trying to predict these things now. But what the hell ...

d. Sixth Man: Nate Robinson. Something tells me he is going to flourish off the bench in Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni's blurring offense.

c. Rookie: Michael Beasley. The Heat need his scoring, and he will be ready to provide it while earning credit for a huge increase in wins. Oden should make a run at this award, though the balance of the Blazers' offense may reduce his numbers.

b. Executive: Kevin Pritchard, Ed Stefanski, John Hammond (in order). Their three rookies could turn the Blazers into next season's darlings, earning recognition for Pritchard. Stefanski recruited Elton Brand to Philadelphia, though he still must re-sign restricted free agents Andre Iguodala and Lou Williams. The changes in the Bucks could be startling, thanks to Hammond's acquisitions of coach Scott Skiles and Richard Jefferson.

(p.s.: The one GM who should be recognized is Jeff Bower, who added James Posey to a team that won 56 games last season. But that improvement won't be felt until the postseason, after the votes have been counted.)

a. MVP: Kobe Bryant. My instinct to recognize LeBron is tempered by his need to win 50 or more games. One big trade by Cleveland could vault James and make this a two-man race.

2. Hungriest contenders. This is a vital category: Which of the elite teams most wants and needs to win the championship? It's one of the hardest qualities to gauge in each conference.

b. The Spurs. This is not to say that the Spurs will necessarily return to the Finals, or that they'll dominate during the regular season as they work in new complementary players. I can, however, imagine that Tim Duncan, Gregg Popovich, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Bruce Bowen will spend the season ahead making it clear to everyone else in their organization of their intention to win at least one more title before they're all washed up. They have faith on their side, based on the fact that they've won four times already, convincing teammates that the hardest work will be rewarded.

Let me add the obvious statement here -- that I may be entirely wrong in this prediction. There is another opinion widespread in the league that Duncan is worn down by having averaged 93 games over the last eight extended seasons. In which case, can Kobe and Phil Jackson influence the young Lakers to grow up fast (or will they trade for veteran depth)? Will the young Hornets feel the urgency to win now?

a. The Celtics. No other team in the East appears capable of matching Boston in focus. The Pistons or Cavaliers may yet improve in that area, but -- provided they remain healthy -- the Celtics aren't likely to slip so long as Kevin Garnett is setting the example. Rather than slide back, they may actually improve as a unit in their second season together (this assumes that defensive assistant Tom Thibodeau returns).

1. Conference predictions. How each conference race is shaping up, as of late July:

b. The East. Note that team Nos. 9-13 will be tightly packed.

15. New Jersey
14. Charlotte
13. Miami
12. Chicago
11. Atlanta
10. New York
9. Milwaukee
8. Indiana
7. Cleveland
6. Toronto
5. Philadelphia
4. Washington
3. Orlando
2. Detroit
1. Boston

a. The West. By the way, in both conferences I'm assuming (perhaps naively, but what else to do at this early stage) full health for all of the key players.

15. Oklahoma City
14. Memphis
13. Minnesota
12. Sacramento
11. Golden State
10. Denver
9. L.A. Clippers
8. Portland
7. Phoenix
6. Houston
5. San Antonio
4. Dallas
3. New Orleans
2. Utah
1. L.A. Lakers