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Taking stock (cont.)

Posted: Thursday January 24, 2008 1:16PM; Updated: Wednesday March 5, 2008 2:12PM
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Long-term growth possibility

With Joe Johnson (left) and Josh Smith leading the way, the Hawks are hoping to break their eight-year playoff drought.
With Joe Johnson (left) and Josh Smith leading the way, the Hawks are hoping to break their eight-year playoff drought.
Doug Benc/Getty Images
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Charlotte Bobcats (BOB)

Price at beginning of season: $8
Current price: $8
Analysis: Company flow chart a mystery with absentee legend Jordan an on-again, off-again presence. But there are promising young assets.

Atlanta Hawks (ATL)

Price at beginning of season: $13
Current price: $18
Analysis: Early optimism has given way to reality. Zaza, for one, not gaga over company leadership after run-in with coach. Workforce must forget poor performance of past few years as well as tepid support from stockholders, but attaining playoff status would be huge step.

Dependable portfolio performers

Toronto Raptors (RAP)

Price at beginning of season: $35
Current price: $38.50
Analysis: There are slowdown concerns in this globally based company, but assets are numerous. Could be good playoff bet for bargain hunters.

Cleveland Cavaliers (LEB)

Price at beginning of season: $45
Current price: $45
Analysis: Company still too heavily dependent on one product and needs to diversify. But same system brought results last year and early downturn seems to have been corrected.

Utah Jazz (JAZ)

Price at beginning of season: $45
Current price: $38.50
Analysis: At least one lesser asset (Giricek) sold off as battle with longtime management ended predictably. Course clear for experienced company but faces considerable comp in this sector.

Volatility an issue

Denver Nuggets (CA-AI)

Price at beginning of season: $45
Current price: $45
Analysis: Two-product company strategy unavoidable and questions about their integration fuels recession fears. But growth potential still worrisome to their competitors in all markets.

Golden State Warriors (GSW)

Price at beginning of season: $45
Current price: $38.50
Analysis: Unpredictable West Coast maverick didn't kick into gear until May of last season, but competition may now be wise to derring-do strategy. Still, investors with cajones could see profit-taking down the road ... or go bust.

Market surprises

Los Angeles Lakers (KOB)

Price at beginning of season: $30
Current price: $50
Analysis: Apparent discord settled with help of prime asset Bryant and wizened CEO Jackson. Injury to young asset Bynum may slow surge but company has considerable brand value and may weather it.

Portland Trail Blazers (TBZ)

Price at beginning of season: $10
Current price: $48
Analysis: Imaginative leadership has sold off several drags on profit (such as Randolph) and established new prime asset in Roy. Continued upturn expected but new product infusion (Oden) will need time to integrate in '09.

New Orleans Hornets (NOH)

Price at beginning of season: $25
Current price: $50
Analysis: Though home market remains concern, rapid growth of young workforce (Paul and Chandler) has doubled return estimate. Investors should fall in love with feel-good story but still may be wary.

Orlando Magic (MAJ)

Price at beginning of season: $30
Current price: $45
Analysis: Early out of the gate, young company appeared to wilt but then rebounded. Positioned well to be strong factor in May, though making it to June still seems unlikely.

Washington Wizards (WIZ)

Price at beginning of season: $30
Current price: $35
Analysis: Company taking on rare defensive position. Will need to reintegrate with return of Arenas, who must play more complementary role, though best-known asset doesn't do complementary particularly well.

Blue chips

Detroit Pistons (DPS)

Price at beginning of season: $50
Current price: $50
Analysis: Positioned well with good company fundamentals. But aging workforce and product stagnation remain concerns as season goes on

Phoenix Suns (SUN)

Price at beginning of season: $55
Current price: $54.50
Analysis: Rumors of minor discord continue but, at its best, company can outperform all competition on given night. With more defensive position could surge to top.

Boston Celtics (BOS)

Price at beginning of season: $40
Current price: $55
Analysis: Still needs to demonstrate Western strength with post-All-Star road trip. Dips at home, such as losses to WIZ, RAP and BOB, worry longtime investors. But tri-pronged approach should carry company well into May.

Dallas Mavericks (MAV)

Price at beginning of season: $55
Current price: $54.50
Analysis: As if old competitors weren't enough, company didn't anticipate new regional battle with NOH. But if young quarterbacking (Harris) doesn't fade and Dax Index (Nowitzki) stays strong, Cubanists could flourish.

San Antonio Spurs (SAP)

Price at beginning of season: $58
Current price: $48.50
Analysis: Rare downturn, aging workforce and enervating repeat challenge have raised fears in Alamo Town, particularly if home-court advantage is lost. But with four championships and solid leadership, wide-moat company is strong enough to maintain industry position with reinvigorated close.

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