A new way of looking at relievers (cont.) |
4. Joakim Soria, RoyalsExpected saves: 32 Actual saves: 42 CLOSER+: 128 I go back and forth, back and forth, back and forth on whether or not the Royals should try to make Soria a starter. I talk with one person who says they should and that makes sense to me for all the reasons you might expect: -- A great starter is much more valuable than a great closer. -- Soria came up as a starter and has multiple pitches and such an easy deliver that he seems a natural. -- Think about a rotation of Soria, Zack Greinke and Gil Meche -- that's a pretty exciting thing. That, potentially anyway, could be up there with any team in baseball. Throw in a seemingly rejuvenated (or maybe just "juvenated") Kyle Davies, and our beloved Banny (Brian Bannister), and the No. 1 pick of the 2006 draft (Luke Hochevar), I mean, yeah, that would be exciting. -- If it doesn't work for whatever reason, put him back. -- I get the sense -- though he's a tough guy to read -- that Soria would like to be a starter. So, I'm on that bandwagon. Then I talk to someone else who says there's no way the Royals should make him a starter, and I find myself nodding -- that makes too for all the reasons you might expect: -- Soria is already a dominant closer and there's no telling how he would be as a starter. You don't fool with one of the few things you have done right in a decade. -- There are very, very, very, very few examples of a guy who begins his career as dominant closer being made into a dominant starter. In fact, when I went back to try and find one, I pretty much rolled snake eyes. -- If he fails as a starter, you may ruin him as a closer too. You may not, but there's always a risk. Part of Soria's brilliance seems to be that he feels invincible. You would hate to mess with that. -- There's a great feeling in the clubhouse with Soria closing things out -- everyone knows that if they get to the late innings with a lead they will almost certainly win. You would hate to mess with that either. -- Who would close? Hochevar? Ram Ram (Ramon Ramirez)? Jeff Montgomery? Both of these lines of thinking make some sense to me. So, in the end, where do I come down? I would say that at this moment, if I'm playing with someone else's money, yeah, I would at least try to make Soria a starter. I think it would have an excellent chance of working, and I think if it didn't work for some reason I think he would be able to regain his dominance in the pen. Plus ... I'm serious, how can you not get excited about a Soria-Greinke-Meche top three? Of course, I could be convinced otherwise. 5. C.J. Wilson, TexasExpected saves: 19 Actual saves: 24 CLOSER+: 126 6. Brian Wilson, San FranciscoExpected Saves: 33 Actual saves: 41 CLOSER+: 125 Lyin' in bed just like Brian Wilson did Well I am ... Lyin' in bed just like Brian Wilson did So I'm a-lying here, just staring at the ceiling tiles and I'm thinking about, oh, what to think about Just listening and relistening to Smiley Smile And I'm wondering if this some kind of creative drought 7. Joe Nathan, TwinsExpected saves: 31 Actual saves: 39 CLOSER+: 124 8. Bobby Jenks, White SoxExpected saves: 24 Actual Saves: 30 CLOSER+: 122 9. K-Rod, AngelsExpected saves: 52 Actual saves: 62 CLOSER+: 119 He had one tough save all year -- which he converted -- and he was slightly better than the average closer on the easy and regular saves. I'm not sure how other relievers would have handled 69 save opportunities from a mental standpoint. And it's significant that he pitched on consecutive days 29 times, more than any other closer. But from a pure pitching quality standpoint, I think there are about probably 10 to 15 other pitchers who, given the same opportunities as K-Rod, would have smashed the save record last year. 10. Brian FuentesExpected saves: 25 Actual saves: 30 CLOSER+: 119 And a quick list of worst closers, 20 or more opportunities: Worst: J.J. Putz, SeattleExpected saves: 16 Actual saves: 15 CLOSER+: 94 The CLOSER+ number is a bit misleading because a 100 closer is actually pretty lousy. The number 100 comes from the average of ALL relievers, not just closers. An average "closer" is actually closer to 115. If that makes any sense at all. Which I'm sure it doesn't. Other struggling closers in 2008: Billy Wagner (100 CLOSER+), Ryan Franklin (100 CLOSER+) and Jonathan Broxton (103 CLOSER+).
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