It's make-or-break time for pricey pitcher Barry Zito

Last season, Barry Zito finished with a sub-.500 record (11-13) for the first time in his career. AP

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SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Nobody knows, for sure, what's wrong with Barry Zito. Only Zito knows, and it's sometimes difficult to see whether even he can figure out what's going on inside his fertile mind.

This much we know, though: Through most of this spring, Zito has not been good. Through most of last season, his first with the Giants, he was only marginally better than not good. He hasn't had a Zito-like year since 2002, when he went 23-5 with a 2.75 ERA for the A's. A lot of people are starting to wonder what Zito-like truly is, whether it's '02 and the years before that, or '03 up to now.

To be fair, his last five seasons, since that defining Cy Young year of '02, haven't been completely awful. He still has never missed a turn in his career. (That's 255 starts and counting.) He has been, almost without exception, better than average, and at times way better than that. In '03, for example, he was very good for the A's, slinging a career-best 231 2/3 innings. He was pretty good his last two years in Oakland. He has given up more hits than innings pitched only once in his eight-year career, back in '04.

That's the kind of stuff that the Giants chose to see in December 2006, when they signed him to a then-record seven-year, $126 million contract. That's why they decided to make him the ace of their staff.

Then came last season, when he was not only not Zito-like, he was worse than your run-of-the-league starter. He had a 4.53 ERA, the worst of his career. He didn't throw 200 innings for the first time since becoming a full-timer. And he had an ERA+ -- a measure that takes into account the park that he pitches in and factors the league-average for a pitcher -- of 98. A 100 ERA+ is considered average.

This spring, at least before last Friday, he's slid even further. He had a 14.92 ERA in four starts before Friday's exhibition game against the White Sox. He had given up 21 hits in 12 2/3 innings. He didn't have a single strikeout. He looked, in a word, terrible.

Where does Barry Zito, who soon will turn 30, go from here? Back to the elite pitcher he once was? Or into the scrap heap of free-agent busts?

What's wrong with this guy?

"For me, I'm just focused on what I got to get done," Zito said. "Whatever people think, they're going to think. But I still have to go forward with what I'm doing."

For the second straight year, Zito has spent a good part of his spring tinkering with his windup. He abandoned the changes last spring shortly after implementing them. But this March, he is sticking with his new mechanics. At least for now.

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