Ten fearless predictions for the season ahead

Kosuke Fukudome is a two-time Japanese Central League batting champ and the front-runner for the NL Rookie of the Year award. AP

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Ten fearless and possibly foolhardy predictions for the 2008 Major League Baseball season, which starts Sunday night -- were there some games in Tokyo recently? -- when the Nationals open their new park in D.C. with a game against the Braves.

1. Erik Bedard will have the lowest ERA in the American League. The big lefty is going from a killer division to one half as strong, and moving from a high-scoring park in Baltimore to a much more fair one in Seattle. He's going to have more hitters scoring runs for him, too. Bedard, who had a 3.16 ERA last year with the Orioles (fourth in the AL), doesn't have as much competition, either. One of guys ahead of him moved to the other league (Dan Haren), another is hurt (John Lackey) and Johan Santana, who finished seventh at 3.33, is not around the league to scare off everybody, either. This could be Bedard's year.

2. Ryan Braun will be even better than he was last year. The National League's Rookie of the Year in ''07 had 34 homers and 97 RBIs in 113 games. Project that to a full season. A 40-homer, 120-RBI season is well within his reach. The kid won't have to worry about his defense at third now, either, since the Brewers have moved him to left field. The Brewers, by the way, are a real threat to the Cubs, everybody's favorite in the NL Central.

3. The Rockies won't make the postseason. I'm not saying last season was a fluke. Just the last month of it or so. It's hard not to like Matt Holliday, Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki and the rest of the hitters. Right fielder Brad Hawpe could have a big, big year. But the starting pitching simply isn't deep enough. Jason Hirsh is still hurt, and Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales have all of 24 starts between them. Mark Redman? Kip Wells (who will start the season in the 'pen)?

4. Your AL Rookie of the Year: Jacoby Ellsbury. This is hardly fearless, and probably not real foolhardy, either. After what he did for the Red Sox in last year's World Series (.438, with four doubles in four games), predicting big things for Ellsbury is almost cheating. Ah, but can he do anything close to that over a full season? Well, no, not .400. But he has speed and smarts. And watch his power, too. That's going to be better this year than you think.

5. Your NL Rookie of the Year: Kosuke Fukudome. Purists can start their whining now about him not being a true rookie. But Fukudome, who will be 31 next month, qualifies, and his game puts him in a perfect position to put up some impressive numbers in his first season here. He's a high on-base, high average guy that will hit high in the Cubs' lineup. Nobody's expecting 30-homer power from him. But he'll be good enough to be a force all season long.

6. C.C. Sabathia is going to struggle. I don't wish this on the big fella, especially in his contract year. But that was a heck of a lot of innings he threw last season for the Indians -- 256-plus, counting a disastrous postseason -- and it takes some time to recover after something like that. It can be done: Roy Oswalt and Mark Buehrle, for two examples, both had nice bounce back seasons recently after similar years. But others have suffered after such a workload.

7. The Reds will be better than you think. They're a trendy up-and-comer, sure, though no one sees them as NL Central champs. I won't go that far, either. But they have the sluggers, the park to slug in, some young starters that can do some damage (Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto) and -- finally -- some semblance of a bullpen. They overpaid for closer Francisco Cordero. But they needed him. Badly.

8. Billy Butler is going to have a heck of a year. He was one of those guys that scouts raved about this spring, a natural at the plate with a great stroke. He's going to get a lot of opportunity to hone that this year, mostly as K.C.'s designated hitter. That's a perfect place to put up big numbers.

9. The Cardinals will have the worst record in the NL. I think the Orioles probably will be worse in the AL. And the Marlins, the Pirates and the Giants certainly will give the Cardinals a run in the NL. The Astros, too. But the Cards are relying too much on injured pitchers like Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, Matt Clement and Joel Pineiro, and if there's one Cardinal rule you shouldn't break, it's never rely on injured pitchers. This is going to be ugly.

10. Barry Bonds will not get a job. And nobody will care, either.

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