Desperate Yanks run into nervous Red Sox in Bronx showdown

Because of injury, Josh Beckett will not face the Yankees this week, but a longterm absence could be devastating for Boston. AP

It is now time, whether all those playoff-privileged East Coast fans want to admit it or not, to face up to the very tangible possibility that both the Yankees and the defending World Series champion Red Sox might be on the outside looking in this postseason.

Not the Yankees or the Red Sox. The Yankees and the Red Sox. Both of them. Sitting home. In October.

The Yankees, as of this moment, are surely out of it. Despite a weekend sweep of the Orioles, the Yankees are floundering, 15-15 in their last 30 games, deep in third place in the American League East (9 1/2 games deep) and in third place in the wild card standings, five games behind the Sox. The Web site coolstandings.com gives the Yanks only a 7.3 percent chance of making the postseason.

The Red Sox? They haven't been in first place in almost two months. They haven't been within three games of the AL East lead in a month. (They begin the week 4 1/2 games behind Tampa Bay.) And their lead in the wild card race is now down to a single game over the Twins.

Not since the wild-card era began in 1995 has there been a postseason without either the Yankees or Red Sox. In every one of them -- 13 and counting -- the Yankees were in. In seven of those years, both teams made it.

Now, we have a Yankee team that could be counting on Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner and Carl Pavano -- Carl Pavano! -- in September, and a Boston team with an ace (Josh Beckett) suffering through some mysterious arm ailment, a 42-year-old knuckleballer (Tim Wakefield) coming off the disabled list and a 37-year-old soft-tosser (Paul Byrd) as a fill-in.

It's just not looking good. For either team.

This week, beginning on Tuesday, the Red Sox and Yankees play a three-game series in the Bronx in what has been, many times in the last decade, a showdown for first place in the AL East. This one is different, though. First place isn't on the line this time. Survival is for one, and may be for the other.

The Yankees are getting desperate and almost certainly need a sweep to stay in the hunt. While the Red Sox will be in striking distance of a playoff spot when they leave the Bronx, they could very well be on the wrong side of the playoff picture, forced to play catch-up in September.

The Yankees, with Joba Chamberlain injured and ace Chien-Ming Wang long since sidelined, have had to count on Ponson, Rasner and, now, Pavano to stand next to old-timers Mike Mussina (having a bit of a renaissance) and Andy Pettitte. The Yanks have a 4.98 ERA in August, the worst of any team anywhere near the postseason.

The Yankees' once-feared lineup is struggling, too. Jason Giambi is hitting .219 in August. Pudge Rodriguez is hitting .209. The Yanks score 4.86 runs a game, seventh in the 14-team AL.

The Red Sox, with Beckett's next start being pushed back to Friday, will send Wakefield, Byrd and Jon Lester against the Yanks this week. There's a lot of worry about Beckett's arm injury. With him out, and with a struggling Clay Buchholz down to the minors, the Sox will have to rely on Daisuke Matsuzaka (15-2, 2.98 ERA) and the 24-year-old Lester (12-5, 3.49) to lead the way in September. The Red Sox have a 4.76 ERA in August, just ahead of the Yanks.

The Sox have questions in their lineup, too. J.D. Drew's back is acting up. Mike Lowell is out with a sore oblique muscle. David Ortiz is hitting only .237 in August, with just three home runs. Manny Ramirez is gone.

Clearly, the Yankees are more desperate at this point. They've lost five games to the AL East lead in August and have only 32 left to play. Even Hank Steinbrenner is giving off white-flag kind of signals.

But Beckett's injury, the resiliency of the first-place Rays and the push from the Twins give Boston fans plenty reason to be nervous, too. The Twins are 21-14 in the second half, behind only the Rays and Angels in the AL. Boston is just 18-15.

And so it may be time to picture an October that doesn't include either Fenway Park or Yankee Stadium. A fall without Big Papi and Derek Jeter. A postseason without the game's two most popular teams.

Can you see it?