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Posted: Wednesday May 28, 2008 12:42PM; Updated: Thursday May 29, 2008 11:22AM
Jon Heyman Jon Heyman >
DAILY SCOOP

First place, first pick: Rays will have top choice in loaded draft

Story Highlights
  • Smart drafting is a key reason behind the Rays' resurgence
  • A draft guru breaks down the top players for next week's draft
  • Why the Mets decided not to fire Willie Randolph
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David Price
After nabbing Vanderbilt star David Price with the top pick in 2007, the Rays could draft another Commodore first in 2008.
Al Tielemans/SI

Baseball's surprising new juggernaut, the Tampa Bay Rays (yes, those Tampa Bay Rays), who seem to have a lot more sunshine in their lives now that they have removed the "Devil'' from their name, is in the unusual position of having the No. 1 pick in the upcoming amateur draft at a time it also has the chance to have baseball's best record.

Oh, it isn't unusual for the Rays to have the first-overall selection. That seems to be an almost annual rite for them, as the selection order is based on each team's performance from the previous year. For the Rays, who have been consistently crummy in their brief history, that means three No. 1 picks in their history, selecting Josh Hamilton in 1999, Delmon Young in 2003 and David Price in 2007.

What is unusual is that the Rays are currently baseball's No. 1 team (they are tied with another historic loser, the Cubs, with a .596 winning percentage). And what would be unique is the opportunity for the team with the best record to pick first. In fact, that has never happened in 43 previous drafts -- though surprisingly, four teams have held first place while making pick No. 1: the 1989 Orioles (who picked Ben McDonald) the 1995 Angels (Darin Erstad), the 2001 Twins (Joe Mauer) and the 2004 Padres (Matt Bush -- yikes!).

Considering their stark improvement, the Rays are looking at it as the end of an era (or should it be error?); possibly their last free shot in the near future to draft the best amateur player in the country. "This certainly puts some added pressure to add an impact player, before hopefully picking in the late teens or 20s for years to come,'' Rays GM Andrew Friedman says.

This Rays team appears to be no fluke. In a year in which young teams are thriving (they started the year the seventh youngest team, and are only that old thanks to their new closer Troy Percival, who's 38), the Rays boast a quartet of solid-to-superior 20-something starters: Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza and Edwin Jackson.

Their lineup -- never the main problem -- is also improved, thanks to a well-balanced mix, which now includes heralded third baseman Evan Longoria, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2006 draft. Yes, drafting high eventually helps, even in the tough AL East.

"Looking on the field in spring training, we thought there wasn't that big a difference talent-wise,'' Friedman says. "The biggest obstacle is experience, and you can't cut corners on experience.''

Their talent is undeniable, and on June 5 they'll get the chance to add to it. And as their improving luck would have it -- don't the Rays finally deserve a few breaks? -- it's a banner year for amateur talent. "This is a deep year for college position players and college relievers,'' one NL GM says. "It's probably one of the better years for college corner players in quite some time.'' Some say this draft ranks with the '97 draft, when J.D. Drew of Florida State, Troy Glaus of UCLA and Lance Berkman of Rice made up a great crop of college hitters.

In past years the Rays had zeroed in on their choice by now. But this time, Friedman says, "There's no clear-cut No. 1 for us.'' Judging by their recent moves and the quality of this draft, they'll come up with a good one.

My draft preview

According to my personal draft guru, an American League scouting executive, one of three players should go No. 1 ...

1. Pedro Alvarez, Vanderbilt, 3B/1B. "He's easily the most technically excellent hitter in the draft,'' according to my guru. The left-handed hitter was a consensus No. 1 pick heading into the year off his USA baseball performance, but injuries have put at least two more players into the running for No. 1. Alvarez is a smart kid who hails from the Washington Heights section of Manhattan, just like Manny Ramirez. And like Ramirez, he's a Scott Boras client, which means he won't come cheap.

2. Buster Posey, Florida State, C. A converted pitcher and shortstop, he's considered a superb athlete with an off-the-charts makeup (something that should interest the Rays). With catching in short supply, his value rises further.

3. Tim Beckham, Griffin (Ga.) High, SS. A terrific athlete and "a buzz name,'' who "hasn't played all that well this year,'' according to another scouting savant.

Some more names to watch ...

4. Brian Matusz, U. of San Diego, LHP. Easily the best college pitcher with an excellent changeup. If the Rays take a pitcher, this is the guy.

5. Justin Smoak, U. of South Carolina, 1B. Good-hitting, great-fielding first baseman in the mold of Casey Kotchman.

6. Gordon Beckham, U. of Georgia, 1B (no relation to Tim). The draft's most polished shortstop, and a switch-hitter to boot.

7. Eric Hosmer, American Heritage (Plantation, Fla.) High, 1B. Easily the best high school hitter in the draft, he's strong and mechanically sound.

8. Aaron Crow, U. of Missouri, RHP. Advanced pitcher who had a 43-inning scoreless streak this year.

9. Christian Friedrich, Eastern Kentucky U., LHP. Superb curveball. "I really like this guy,'' one scouting director said.

10. Kyle Skipworth, Patriot (Rubidoux, Calif.) High, C. Left-handed-hitting catchers are in short supply, and catchers of any kind are at a premium.

Some more who should be first-rounders ...

11. Aaron Hicks, Woodrow Wilson (Rubidoux, Calif.) High, RHP/OF. Tall, skinny and "very raw.'' He throws 97 mph and switch hits; committed to USC.

12. Josh Fields. U. of Georgia, RHP. The senior didn't sign with the Braves last year as a second-rounder. He went back to school, and pitched even better.

13. Yonder Alonso, U. of Miami, 1B. "Very good hitter with power,'' according to an AL scouting director.

14. Brett Wallace, Arizona State, 1B/3B. "Great bat speed,'' according to one scout, who also said "third base is a reach.'' More a 1B/DH type who's listed as 245 pounds and looks a tad soft. Another Prince Fielder?

15. Anthony Hewitt, Salisbury (Conn.) School, SS. Brooklyn-native who may be the best athlete in the draft. Off-the-charts power and speed (6.3 60-yard dash) who wowed them at a Shea Stadium workout last weekend. Since he's a high school player in the Northeast, he doesn't have the games under his belt and may be overlooked by some. In terms of talent he's right at the top.

16. Gerrit Cole. Orange (Orange, Calif.) Lutheran, RHP. Cole has hit 98 mph on the gun. He's a tremendous talent who may be a tough sign; he's committed to UCLA and is advised by Boras (Cole happened to pitch in Boras' son's high school league in Orange County, Calif.)

17. Andrew Cashner, TCU reliever, RHP. He has hit 99 on the gun. "Secondary stuff is limited,'' one scout says.

18. Chris Dwyer, Salisbury (Conn.) School, LHP. Throws 93 with a tremendous curve. A high school teammate of Hewitt's who also may be overlooked because he plays in the north. Clemson's No. 1 recruit.

19. Allan Dykstra. Wake Forest, 1B. Big guy who's a patient hitter. Moneyball player, according to one scout.

One more who'll be fun to monitor...

20. Cutter Dykstra, Westlake (Thousand Oaks, Calif.) High, SS (no relation to Allan). Good name and pedigree. The son of noted investor and ex-big leaguer Lenny Dykstra.

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